(04-25-2014 07:08 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(04-24-2014 10:08 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(04-24-2014 08:56 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(04-24-2014 08:51 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-24-2014 08:18 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  .

I agree with your analysis except for absorption by the P5. The P5 can't expand forever.

Then the P5 may implode further into a P4. . Nobody cares about the P5 anymore.

Highly unlikely the P5 becomes P4. I agree no one cares about the P5, that is why TV pays them the big bucks, and on average they have 2 to 4 times as many butts in seats compared to gang schools.

I'm from the never say never camp on such because the one thing the economy and its micro version intercollegiate athletics has shown us is when the marketplace becomes disrupted sweeping changes take place.

The late 80's-early 90's realignment was about title games and being more attractive under the CFA contract.

The 1995-99 realignment was about the post-CFA world where conferences had to cut their own TV deals that brought us Big XII as neither the Big 8 nor SWC was able to do a deal competitive with SEC, Big 10, Pac-10. C-USA emerged because the southern indies no longer had the CFA to handle their TV. MWC emerged because the new WAC deal wasn't especially lucrative split 16 ways and the members couldn't preserve the games that were best for gate receipts.

This more recent round has been about conference owned channels and the broader spectrum of distribution avenues as more channels have emerged and additionally fueled by the premium for live content that is unlikely to be time-shifted by viewers.

Come 2020 when nearly every television set comes app ready and the devices like Roku, Apple TV, and the Amazon box are more common the distribution model may change and the alignments needed to profit may change. Maybe Texas and Michigan like Notre Dame no longer want or need a conference handling their business and they sell direct to nation sellers and via their own TV app. Or maybe with direct selling taking place, the conferences need to grow larger to make their subscription package a must have.

The economic model down the road will shape what it all looks like.