(04-24-2014 08:56 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(04-24-2014 08:51 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-24-2014 08:18 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The situation has the AAC, MWC, CUSA, MAC and SBC all unionizing together for common interest. Helping each other out to get additional bowl games. This is not a good development for the Power 5. If the G5 can accumulate enough value and ratings it will cut into the P5.

I'm skeptical it can be done as a group. There will likely be schools that develop and become relevant and when they fit a need they will be absorbed by the P5.

Take Thursday nights on ESPN for example.

At one time Thursday night was for the smaller names in FBS. Before the Big East raided Louisville, Cincy, USF and before MWC got frustrated and signed with CSTV (now CBSS), the bulk of Thursday night was MWC and CUSA and even some WAC.

Then something happened. The games drew better than expected ratings and games weren't played before mostly empty stadiums as feared.

Thursday night became palatable for the big boys and they moved in. When they moved in the audiences became even larger and even more money was at stake for what now was becoming a desirable slot.

The NFL noticed and they began experimenting with games on NFL Network, now it is so big it will be on CBS.

If the G5 identify ways to make money the P5 will step into the field and disrupt it either by competing for it and commanding better TV slots or they will absorb valuable properties (ie. Utah and TCU), and if it is lucrative enough the NFL will go there and disrupt it even worse.

The P5 already dominate the lucrative TV windows (most of Saturday and Thursday night) leaving G5 to seek niche coverage (other less accepted networks or Tuesday and Wednesday night).

The G5 has to make its mark in either time slots or on channels not fed by viewer habit and that makes being a serious financial rival unlikely.

I agree with your analysis except for absorption by the P5. The P5 can't expand forever.

Its different this time. The days of CUSA schools using that TV exposure to leverage themselves into better conferences is over. Now you are stuck in the G5 wasteland permanently.

The G5 could pursue a renegade agenda to maximize its calculus for the post season. Or in an about face move turn its TV rights over to the NCAA to maximize leverage as a unit. Set up a lucrative system based on TV appearances that could push schools on TV into the 10 million per year range. Fox Sports could walk in and drop 300 million on the G5.

The P5 could adapt to the same models if it works but they have less to gain if they do. They can't shove the G5 out of all TV with so many network options available these days.

Then the P5 may implode further into a P4. Texas goes independent and joins the ACC for other sports. B1G adds Kansas to get to 15. SEC adds Oklahoma to get to 15. All of the sudden the B12 is left on the outside and joins the G5 union.

The P5 never anticipated a situation where the MAC would place a school in the Orange Bowl and basketball schools like Western Kentucky, Old Dominion and Charlotte playing football in FBS. The little guys unionizing for their own rights. They thought that most of the mid majors would have dropped to FCS but the opposite has happened. Their worst nightmare just came true. Nobody cares about the P5 anymore.