(04-14-2014 05:13 PM)ark30inf Wrote: (04-14-2014 04:58 PM)theboro Wrote: (04-14-2014 04:49 PM)ark30inf Wrote: (04-14-2014 04:46 PM)theboro Wrote: (04-14-2014 04:35 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: You are correct. CUSA has one thing over the SBC now with regards to bowls. And that is a bowl tie in with a P5 opponent. But most years that bowl tie in will not be a team from the P5 with a winning record.
CUSA still has more TV exposure/money (although I think that will start to even out)
CUSA has better basketball (although the gap is narrowing).
The gap is narrowing?
The Sun Belt loses WKU and replaces them with a pair of sub-300 teams and that narrows the gap?
The Sun Belt as a conference next year will be SWAC bad.
The gap is narrower than it ever has been.
And next year it will get bigger.
The avg. RPI of CUSA teams this year was 175, avg. RPI of SBC was 200.
Change those numbers to account for the changes to the conference lineups in 2014-15 and the average goes to 172 for C-USA, 228 for SBC.
SBC hoops is gonna be brutal.
Football is gonna be fine with ASU and UL and Troy should rebound and USA is solid this year, but you're eventually gonna have to pay the piper with Idaho, NMSU and the transitionals.
Last year the SBC was solid because you only had one bad team at the bottom, this year, you're going to have at least three.
CUSA has its own transitions and the gap between what they lost and what they got is large.
I think the SBC gap is less due to the two historic FCS we picked up. Plus GaSt made progress, TXST did well, and USA is rising.
You are right that NMSU and Idaho are clinkers, but if one can pick it up OOC it will help.
Does that mean the SBC will catch up immediately? No, but the gap we were closing before is even narrower and that's a positive for us.
The Sun Belt was better than CUSA this past year and the year previous.
Yea, next year this will be the competitive landscape for both conferences
CUSA - gains a solid program with WKU. Loses Tulane, Tulsa, and ECU. Adds FCS newbie in ODU. UNT, Marshall, MTSU, WKU, and Rice look like they'll be trying for a bowl. UTSA or FAU might get there. Anyone else would be a surprise. It would also be a surprise if any team from that conference got the access bowl slot or was ranked. The bottom of the league (ODU, UAB, USM, UTEP, La Tech, FIU) will likely continue to drag the conference down
Sun Belt - loses a solid program in WKU. Adds two newbies and two poorly performing teams. This will really hurt the league's overall profile, but will likely solidify the leagues other teams. Only one team is mired in problems at this point (Ga State). Teams probably bowling, USA, ULL, Texas State, Troy, Arkansas State. ULM might (but they lose a LOT from last years team). My guess is that the Belt ends up with 5-6 bowl eligibles (just the same as CUSA). However, I think its more likely the Sun Belt takes the bowl access slot and/or a top 25 ranking than a CUSA team does. The bottom of the Belt will likely struggle next year as the newbies adjust to live in Varsity and NMSU and Idaho try to recover from their Independent status. It might be three or four years before they actually get rosters that are competitive.
In 2012 it was a surprise that the Belt did better than CUSA. Last year, it really wasn't a surprise. Next year, I think its a 50-50 year. After that, it all will be about getting your bottom teams competitive. The Belt will likely have another newbie joining. CUSA will have another newbie joining (UNCC). So the question going forward is.... who will be more competitive, CUSA's bottom lineup of FIU, UAB, USM, ODU, UNCC, and UTEP (I think La Tech will be back shortly), or the Sun Belt's lineup of Ga State, Ga Southern, Appalachian State, Idaho, and NMSU.