(04-17-2014 09:17 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(04-16-2014 09:27 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-16-2014 04:56 PM)DawggoneEagle Wrote:  FCS isn't going to die, that's a baseless fear, but your program's window of opportunity to may close for a while and your stuck.


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The reports of the death of FCS are greatly exaggerated.

In 2003, there were 11 FCS schools that reported attendance of 15,000 or more. Ten remain FCS with no stated intention of moving. 34 reported 10k or more attendance and four of those have reclassified or are in the process.

In 2008, once again 11 FCS schools reported attendance of 15,000 or more. Nine remain FCS with no stated intention of moving. 30 reported 10k or more average attendance, four have reclassified or are headed into it.

In 2013, 12 schools reported attendance of 15,000 or more. Two have accepted invites to FBS leagues, two (Liberty and Jax St) have stated a desire to move but have not been invited. A total of 26 drew 10k or more average and 3 have accepted FBS invites.

At first glance the assumption would be that FCS is weakening as we go from 34 drawing 10k or better to 26 but digging in something pops up. In 2003 of that group of 34 schools, 12 were HBCU's. In 2013 of the 26 drawing 10k or more there were only seven HBCU's. WKU and TXST who were in group of 34 FCS schools in 2003 weren't on the FCS list in 2013.

The numbers indicate FCS is no less healthy today than it was 11 seasons ago, unless your school is an HBCU.

FCS on the east coast is dying. The power resides in the Midwest and West now.

If the CAA and SoCon recruiting footprint you now have ODU, App, UNCC, GSU, GA St., and USA. That is 384 NEW scholarships and a total of 510 FBS scholarships that didn't exist 5 years ago. That will have an impact on the caliber of player signed by mid-atlantic and southern FCS programs.

I'd wager the percentage of teams that make the quarterfinals of the FBS playoffs that come from the west will be much greater and shift has already started.

FCS as a Division isn't going to be dead, but the separation in ability to compete between the teams that remain in FCS and the FBS teams (especially the AQ programs) is going to get even wider. The decision is either to move your football program forward - or by default = your talent will migrate backwards. The mountain is crumbling under the FCS's feet.

From a Georgia Southern view - I see so many programs that we used to play and beat that are now AAC, SBC, CUSA etc. Before our invite I was going crazy. You have to figure that in the Mid 80's when were first so good - most of those players would have seen no advantage in those schools over Southern. If we had been recruiting those same players in todays landscape - we probably would have never landed them (Tracy Ham etc.).

Additionally, many more teams in the footprint exist today. USF, F?UX2, UNCC, etc. Even if us and them were all FCS(1-AA) - the competition would be much harder. Plus the D2 Move ups.. Troy!
And out of footprint competition known more now because of more sports channels and coverage.

But just in the footprint - look at all the competition that exist today. Now figure that each of them is going to pull MORE athletes due to having 22 more scholarships! Just the numbers are going to tell you that you are going to have a tough row to hoe in FCS within this footprint. It isn't like there is a different NCAA academic requirement (an advantage D2 can claim). Your only advantages are that transfers don't have to sit out a year (from FBS programs) AND a true playoff.
If/When the FBS CFP is expanded - well then there goes that advantage.

JMU is making a big mistake. Too bad they wasted all that money on such a nice stadium.