(09-23-2013 04:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  There are simply too many variables to be decided during, and shortly after January, for definitive statements to be made on either side of the realignment argument. Structure, stipends, playoff access, constraints upon the number of divisions a conference may have, all of these must be decided before we know if there will be 4 or 5 conferences. We have to know whether the ACC will get a network before we know how comfortable they will be in their GOR. If they get locked into revenue that is 15 million below what a Big 10 network or SEC network is providing in two years then they could be vulnerable again. I also add to this mix the extreme angst the Longhorn faithful have over the direction of that program, their desire to obtain the same scheduling luxury that N.D. has, and their desire to hang onto the LHN. Texas's desire to change leadership and direction could easily extend to how they see their future in the Big 12.

I respect the opinions of those who think things are settled for a decade, but I also acknowledge that the very structure of the sport could lead to bigger changes if that structure indeed changes. I also acknowledge that things are unstable around the bell cow (pun intended) in the Big 12, and that there are programs in the ACC that were promised a network who might not feel so peachy if it fails to materialize. Hence my position that its almost 5 months too early to be making predictions.

And to Olive and Blue, everyone assumes that Texas and Oklahoma will eschew the SEC in favor of academics. Maybe? Maybe not? The SEC is closer. The SEC is contiguous. The SEC contains two of their former big rivals in Arkansas and Texas A&M. The SEC contains an older rival in L.S.U., and Missouri is close enough to count. If the SEC ever moved to 18 teams and took Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia the breakdown of divisions would have the Longhorns and Sooners playing what were once the top 6 schools in their region and (Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Missouri) that would make for quite a division.

As far as Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina voting against the top money making program in the nation whose inclusion would spike SEC content and deliver along with A&M a rock solid 26 million viewers is danged unlikely, especially now that none of that 4 are worried about the inclusion of their instate rivals into the SEC. Aggie and maybe Missouri would stand alone on this and that's not enough to stop it. I might also add that while the Aggie fans would be against it and understandably so that the Aggie administration might look at the political interests and profit angle a bit differently. If such a move returned Missouri to playing many more games closer to their campus I can't see their administration blowing up about it either.

Florida and Georgia would enjoy academic relationships with the Longhorns and Sooners. Okie State would be an accommodation but by adding West Virginia and its markets to the win win of Oklahoma and Texas the 4 combined would make everyone concerned a heckuva lot more money and that, not vitriol, moves the needle. With Kansas available to the Big 10, Texas Tech and T.C.U. providing access to Texas with one state school and one large market addition in T.C.U. (which is a secular school operation) the PAC would still have interest in this game even if these are not their preferences. Then if anyone picks up Baylor, Kansas State or Iowa State it becomes very doable. Heck if Texas goes to the ACC as a hybrid the SEC could still pull it off by adding Baylor as the second Texas entry into the SEC.

So, while all of this is speculation, and Texas and OU could go essentially anywhere they please, I think in the end they will opt for the most money that they can earn while playing the games their fan bases want to see, and that's not in the PAC or Big 10. They in essence can have the cream of the old SWC plus the Oklahomas and Missouri by becoming the SEC West. It may not be their preferred option, but it is the one that balances their combined interests while still enhancing the bottom line.

I do agree with Jr that the ACC TV deal failure could blow the lid off of everything. That is a significant issue with future realignment.