(01-26-2021 05:02 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-26-2021 10:59 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Another off-the-wall scenario but I think this one has a greater chance of happening than thought:

1) SEC gets the three best programs of the Big 12 and a +1. For argument's sake let's say that +1 is Texas Tech

2) Big Ten responds by selling its share of the Big Ten Network to Comcast. Comcast buys out Fox Corporation's share of BTN. Comcast would also buy out the PAC Networks

3) Comcast buys out the remainder of Notre Dame's contract with the ACC and starts readying its shift to the Big Ten. Then one of two things happen: either they stay at 15 until another program comes free or they take in another program in the footprint. Pitt or Iowa State would be among the possibilities

4) PAC/Big Ten renew scheduling alliance, now with Notre Dame part of the group. Peacock and NBC will be used to air games. USC and Stanford vs Notre Dame would be exclusive Comcast properties

Splitting up the SEC would be easy - just put the former Big 8/Big 12/SWC programs in one division except A&M

Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Arkansas
Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn
Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina


The PAC would stay the same but the scenarios on the Big Ten side would dramatically change. If they don't go beyond 15 then they could break it down like this:

Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois
Northwestern, Michigan, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Purdue
Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers

What happens if they move to 16? Well, a couple of scenarios could happen:

- shifting Pitt to Penn State's division make sense. If you can put ND with Pitt and Penn State it would be better. Then you can keep the Ohio State/Michigan/Michigan State group united

- if Pitt can't work out economically then Iowa State is the other possible choice but that presents some complications. Cincinnati won't work due to Ohio State's power in the conference

- Syracuse might get a look as well and would complement the markets in the Northeast, in case markets would still matter more. However, Pitt has the academic chops Syracuse lacks

So the ideal pick up is Notre Dame and Pitt.

Notre Dame, Pitt, Penn State, Maryland
Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Rutgers
Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota

If Notre Dame and Iowa State:

Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota
Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State
Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State
Notre Dame, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers

That's an interesting thought process.

I've started to wonder too if Comcast might actually double down on sports given all their actions recently.

What if it went something like this?

Comcast buys out the Big Ten Network as you suggest and converts it to a property on Peacock. They just did it with the WWE so it could work structurally.

Now the issue is FOX...are they getting out of college sports? Would they part ways with their share of the BTN? That would likely mean they would be fine not bidding on the next round of Big Ten rights. That remains to be seen, but it's certainly plausible.

I don't see Notre Dame involved in this deal because ESPN would have to let the rights go...I don't see it. The ACC will continue to stumble on, but ND means a lot to their viability which in turn buoys ESPN's investment.

Here is where I think things will get interesting and it all revolves around the next installment of NFL rights. Take a look at this article from a few weeks ago...Amazon eyeing NFL package

A more detailed analysis of why the new NFL contract could change the game for everyone else.

Here's the point, if the NFL really shakes things up by taking serious content to a streamer then the game is going to change for everyone. Perhaps the primary reason for that is because whichever streaming service lands those rights will have a much bigger audience in short order. I think that's especially true for whoever lands the Sunday Ticket package.

I don't really agree with the people who say there won't be enough money left over after the NFL gets done, and that perhaps that might be a reason the SEC finished their contract early. Now, I'm sure the timing was relevant, but I don't think it's a financial issue so much as an issue of stability.

If the NFL, by virtue of its weight, switches viewers over to certain streaming platforms then the game will be different for everyone on down the food chain.

It looks like FOX, CBS, NBC, and ABC/ESPN will retain their current packages except that the Thursday Night Football might just go to Amazon. That's important as well, but I think the Sunday Ticket will have a bigger impact. What has actually limited Sunday Ticket in the past is it being tied to a cable/satellite service. It's a big switch technologically and perhaps financially to invest in Sunday Ticket from the perspective of a consumer. Make it easier for the consumer to get Sunday Ticket by putting everything online for a reasonable price and it changes things.

It doesn't look like Comcast is in on that, but what it does mean is they will have to ramp up the value of their streaming product to compensate for all the flexing elsewhere. Right now, FOX has no real streaming product. They are out of the game and don't seem to have any plan to get into it.

They will likely shoot for a large NFL package, but they might also bid for NHL games as well. The problem with FOX though is they have no current means of creating a new audience. No streaming product and the RSNs are gone. It does make sense that they would shed other properties that don't necessarily jive with their current goals. The Big Ten Network and subsequent league rights could be next on the docket to leave.

But here's where things might get interesting. The NFL deal is up at the end of the 2021 season. If one or more streaming platforms enter the business for NFL games then they might just get in on other college properties.

You want to know my theory on why the SEC got locked up when they did? ESPN didn't likely fear the loss of the SEC's T1, but they might fear the loss of other products as the market shifts and changes. They wanted to lock up the SEC now for 2 reasons...1) lock down tentpole content that also gave them the ability to increase the value of their streaming platform as SEC games will be on ESPN+ eventually and 2) hedge their bets against losing content from some of their other leagues such as the Big Ten, PAC 12, or Big 12.

The aforementioned 3 leagues will have opportunity to put significant rights with other companies because the advent of new streaming audiences will make it viable.

Nonetheless, ESPN's current investments are extremely important. I think they will either go hard after the entirety of the Big 12 or work to house the key Big 12 properties in existing leagues. The importance of the LHN strikes again.

When it comes to the PAC 12 or Big Ten, I think the odds of them moving more content away from ESPN are higher although not necessarily a slam dunk. I think a lot could depend on where these NFL rights land in short order because it will change the market.

With or without ND I think the possibility of both the Big Ten and PAC moving toward Comcast is a real one. With everything going to streaming, sooner or later, that would disadvantage a company like Fox, which has no major streaming platform.

Putting together the PAC Networks and BTN into a single platform would make loads of sense for Comcast. They could use USA and CNBC for games involving Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, USC, Oregon, UCLA, Indiana basketball, Big Ten hockey, etc.. NBC could create a Saturday basketball showcase to complement the NFL on Sunday nights.