(12-11-2020 11:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Well the SEC has closed is deal with ABC for T1 rights to the tune of somewhere over 3 billion for 10 years. Neither the SEC nor ESPN will reveal the final amount and claim they want to see it kept secret for now. We know that the combined contracts will come to around 64.2 million per school per year at the minimum and could be more.

This places the SEC as of 2024 10 million ahead of the Big 10 pending their new contract. Ten to eleven million ahead of Texas with the LHN figured in. And around 17 million ahead of Oklahoma and slightly more for the rest of the Big 12. It also places the SEC about 32 million ahead of the ACC and just slightly more than that ahead of the PAC.

We also know that Vanderbilt is promising to update facilities and spend enough to be competitive. I'll believe it when I see it because I've heard this song and dance many times before, but with the new money maybe it happens.

So the SEC will be at 14. That leaves us with only 2 available targets for realignment both of which fit the SEC profile. Texas and Oklahoma. Texas likely prefers to keep things together and Oklahoma will likely want to move for the money. The Big 10 will be interested in them but they fit the SEC's sports profile a lot better than they fit that of the Big 10, they aren't AAU, aren't ranked academically as high as Nebraska, and the Big 10 has to consider that they could wind up like the Huskers and not really be worth the investment for them long term.

But the deal is if Oklahoma decides to leave it diminishes the value of the Big 12 to the extent that it could force the hand of Texas in making a move.

ESPN's profile is to want all of the key schools in a large state so what happens to Baylor, T.C.U. and Tech? Well there's always the AAC which is also controlled by ESPN. Maybe WVU gets an ACC invite, maybe not. But the fact remains that for football the majority of value of football for the Big 12 is tied up in these two schools and both add to the SEC's bottom line, both are state flagships, and Texas is AAU.

So the ballgame until 2035 will be can anyone get Oklahoma to move and is Texas then forced to weigh options.

I like where the SEC is on both of these. The gist of these 97 pages keeps coming back to the same two after we explore ancillary scenarios and after the SEC's new big deal it comes right back to them again.

2023 isn't that far away, let's put COVID behind us and see how this much money makes things shake out!

The only caveat I make to this comes down to ESPN's business model.

They will focus on building content for streaming going forward, but streaming services are more susceptible to the finicky customer than the traditional cable bundle. Football quality will carry the day, but ESPN will want content that maintains subscription rates outside of football season.

Their contracts with the NBA will help with that during the Winter/Spring. In fact, their dedication to the ACC may actually strengthen given the overall content value of basketball in that region of the country.

Soccer is already a big part of their online portfolio and that will continue to grow. Baseball too plays a role.

For the SEC, while our primary role is to supply football games, our secondary role would seem to be housing content from regions that ESPN doesn't already control. Texas and Oklahoma are surely #1 and #2 on the list respectively.

I would still submit that Kansas is a priority for them. It's one of the few reliable national draws for college basketball. I think ESPN would put them in the SEC just to control the content even though the basketball value of the SEC is limited, albeit growing.

The question to me is how far will they take things? Will they attempt to turn the AAC into a hybrid of regions and quasi-power teams? Most of the Big 12 would fit nicely in that league and for a smaller, more commiserate rate. Kansas doesn't really fit into that paradigm because they'll end up with a UConn situation where KU would always be looking to leave.

I would think ESPN would want to add another flagship to the pot. Iowa State makes sense on some level, but it just wouldn't be a fit. To me, West Virginia makes the most sense. The football and basketball quality would be pretty solid.

Structurally, I would think 16 lends itself better though. There are still football games to be concerned with...the CCG specifically and it's hard to get a fair setup out of 18 schools. Actually, it's hard to get a fair setup out of 16 because 8-team divisions would cause some issues unless you go to 9 games and have rotating pods. I suppose the latter is possible though.