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If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #1906
RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
(09-06-2020 04:23 PM)CO Jayhawk Wrote:  
Quote:If South Carolina is that desperate to play Clemson then they have some thinking to do. But Kentucky won't be headed anywhere if the SEC can land Kansas. The rest of the conference is making strides in basketball. Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee all have improved dramatically.

I still could see Vandy taking the first partial membership in the SEC for all sports but football and being guaranteed games against Ole Miss and UT and rotating 3 more. All it will take is one slot for the SEC to be able to go after Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.

South Carolina is going nowhere when their annual media payment is set to jump to 57 million by 2024.

I expect 10 conference games to be the standard within a few years leaving precious little space for an OOC major rival. One will be very doable but 2 gets dicey.

Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
*Vanderbilt as a partial

That's about as solid as the SEC could get at 16 and a partial.

Keep singing that tune, JR. I'm not going to read 96 pages, but I'm sure SEC fans are aware that KU and MU renewing the Border War in football and basketball has certainly increased the speculation that an SEC move for KU, OU and UT is a possibility.
I would have been very concerned that the COVID quarantine had severely damaged your judgment had you read all 96 pages of this thread.

That said where we currently stand there are number of viabilities that could be considered.

With regard to the SEC expanding out of the Big 12 these are all possibilities with greater or lesser likelihoods:

To 16 with Texas & Oklahoma, Texas & Texas Tech, Texas & Kansas, Oklahoma & Kansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

To 18 with Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and likely Texas Tech, but possibly Oklahoma State.

To 20 with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, & Iowa State

If the Expansion originates from the SEC office logic says it would be to 16 and that Texas and Oklahoma or Texas and Kansas would be the preferred options. The office wouldn't be likely to assume the viability of more than 2 schools. Now if Vanderbilt decides not to go with the changes being wrought by the courts then we could be talking 3 additions and that would work very well with Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

If however ESPN is trying to take the best of the Big 12 I think they would go with the state schools because of the markets involved.

So then the question would be do they take Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to move to 18, or do they go for Kansas and Iowa State to go to 20, in which case if a Vanderbilt bowed out then perhaps K State gets that slot.

ESPN has essentially sewn up every state school of any drawing power from each of the states they possess South of Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri. If they were adding the next states over I could see that same strategy applying all the way to Texas minus the privates.

All of that said it is also very possible with the changes coming legally that ESPN recognizes these facts:
1. The PAC 12 and Big 10 need Southern recruiting ties whether to the Southwest or Southeast, particularly the Big 10. So if ESPN sews up the current Big 12 as it exists for all tiers of rights then they have the same advantage in the Southwest that they have in the Southeast.

2. There will be more than a few schools in the PAC and SEC that don't put the revenue into NIL and Pay for Play so some division is coming within the P5 conferences. Hence why I speculate about Vanderbilt. In the ACC that would be Boston College and Wake Forest and possibly even Miami or Pitt. I think Syracuse may go all in. But with those kinds of changes it makes sense to take the most committed schools of the PAC and Big 10 and assimilate them into conferences where their schools have games annually in the recruiting areas of the Southwest and Southeast. It is after all the best way to keep interest in big time college sports in all regions of the country and to level the playing field a bit more in the process.

3. In such an event the Big 12 becomes a great place to attack schools like Southern Cal, Washington, Stanford, and Oregon which are among the more affluent sports programs of the PAC. The two Arizona schools are more heavily subsidized than people realize and Utah was running in red ink before COVID hit. Missing this season is crippling them. Colorado just doesn't seem like an all in school and the politics behind Cal and UCLA could keep them from that kind of commitment but they might be in. Oregon and Washington State are two of the bottom 5 schools in the current P5 in funding. So if the Big 12 picks up 4 or even 6 PAC schools I think ESPN & Texas will jump on that to hold the conference together. If So there are 5 Big 10 schools likely all in: Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Nebraska, & possibly Michigan, Wisconsin or Michigan State. Splitting those among the SEC / ACC / or Big 12 would complete the moves. ESPN would essentially own all of the major college's rights and the payouts would be handled accordingly as that group may choose in a few years to re-up as one.

If this happens I think the academic alliances would be wholly divorced from athletics and the Big 10 for instance might well expand their academic membership with AAU schools from the ACC / SEC / Big 12 which would all be more clearly recognized as sports conferences.

It will be interesting to watch play out. The contracts will all be renewed by 2024 (except the ACC's) so the only thing we will be waiting upon are the court rulings on pay for play and limits set for Name Image & Likeness. Those things will dictate whether conferences stay intact or all of them suffer defections as some schools opt to play at lest costly levels for football and basketball.

So if we follow the ESPN model for absorption we might have something like this instead:

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Arkansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina

But if the ESPN plan is to use the Big 12 to acquire the PAC rights they want it might look like this:

Big 12
Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Washington
Baylor, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Iowa, Iowa State, Colorado, Nebraska,
Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

SEC:
Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M

ACC:
Louisville, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Syracuse
Penn State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

That's a very solid 48 schools that could negotiate contracts as one League if they wished.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2020 02:41 PM by JRsec.)
09-06-2020 06:01 PM
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Messages In This Thread
SEC Expansion - vandiver49 - 10-11-2013, 08:43 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand - 10thMountain - 05-02-2014, 02:49 PM
RE: B12 - jhawkmvp - 05-02-2014, 11:00 PM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 11-04-2014, 02:34 AM
schools making profits - jhawkmvp - 11-12-2014, 12:32 AM
RE: expansion - oliveandblue - 12-03-2014, 12:41 AM
My wild guess - jhawkmvp - 12-09-2014, 12:39 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 12-25-2014, 11:04 PM
RE: If the SEC did expand... - Transic_nyc - 09-19-2015, 01:41 AM
RE - Transic_nyc - 10-21-2017, 03:15 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 10-21-2017, 06:35 PM
RE: ? - Transic_nyc - 10-22-2017, 01:02 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand... - Transic_nyc - 03-05-2018, 11:46 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why? - JRsec - 09-06-2020 06:01 PM
RE: If ... - Transic_nyc - 12-18-2020, 01:45 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 01-26-2021, 10:59 AM
RE: If - Transic_nyc - 01-27-2021, 12:58 AM
RE: If - Transic_nyc - 03-07-2021, 02:25 PM
RE: If ... - Transic_nyc - 03-09-2021, 06:34 AM



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