(07-23-2020 12:32 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(07-22-2020 10:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-22-2020 10:25 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  

(07-22-2020 12:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-21-2020 10:01 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  I am curious in knowing which B12 schools are making overtures to the SEC and/or other power conferences, recognizing the B12's GoR will have a window in a few years

I expect some of the schools that perceive they could be vulnerable are doing so.

Texas and Oklahoma may feel they can be coy, but really, their real options are quite limited.
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Oklahoma will want to keep the Bedlam game (and other sports competition with oSu) and the RRR. Doing both as OOC games doesn't look acceptable, even with the enhancement of new conference revenue distribution.

Texas' issue with the SEC is not logistical or athletic compatibility, but largely attitudinal and a diminished ability in exercising control. Doing something with the BIG, the Pac12, or even the ACC or being partially independent, will be complicated, lack enthusiasm, have geographic oddity, and incorporate fewer to none traditional rivals.

That's why some form of Texa-homa offer to the SEC would be forthcoming. And Texas will say that they only did it to preserve rivalries and protect Tech. It's simply not logical or practical for there to be another outcome unless that outcome is status quo in the Big 12.

The SEC will initially say they can only handle Texas and Oklahoma leaving them an OOC game for Tech or OSU. But ultimately ESPN will make or break the deal by what they offer us to take the foursome.

The question is whether ESPN would rather pay for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and West Virginia (or another) to move to the SEC or pay for Texa-homa to make the same move. If ESPN calls their bluff by refusing to pay for OSU or TTU then we'll have our answer. If Texas and Oklahoma refuse to move without them and calls ESPN's bluff we'll have our answer as well.

What if:
Texas refuses to come. Oklahoma decides to come.

Assuming the SEC doesn't want to stay at 15, would the additional team be chosen by Oklahoma, ESPN, or Oklahoma/ESPN? In those scenarios, which team would be #16?

They'd all have their preferences. Maybe OU wants O.S.U. which was Boren's demand in 2011. Maybe ESPN wants Kansas. Maybe the SEC wants T.C.U. to lock down a presence in DFW with Oklahoma providing strong support with A&M.

The numbers would be crunched and ESPN would give their valuation and you go from there. The rub is Oklahoma cannot afford to be in different conferences than both Texas and Oklahoma State. And without the Sooners none of Kansas, Oklahoma State, or T.C.U. are even considered.

The Only way Oklahoma comes to the SEC is either with a Texas or an Oklahoma State. The only other possible way would be if the fans at Oklahoma are fine with eliminating the Bedlam game in order to preserve the RRR in OOC scheduling.

If the latter is the case, #16 would probably best West Virginia, Kansas or, if no one else is interested, Oklahoma State.

There is a play that makes a lot of sense to me that is at ESPN's and Texas's advantage.

About 2024 (a year before the expiration of the Big 12 GOR and PAC GOR) ESPN pushes Texas and Tech to the SEC. What this does, if UT is in agreement, is to remove any leverage that Oklahoma might have had with the Big 10. Oklahoma is a prize, but a prize that is not AAU, not nearly close enough to being AAU, and while it has a national brand comes from a state of only 4 million people and is a school largely propped up by its rivalry with Texas.

You see ESPN has its own objectives. Yes they would like to own Texas essentially outright. Yes they want the top 3 brands of the Big 12, and yes they know that there is really only one way to get that.

If they offered Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to get Texas the Horns would insist upon Tech and Kansas would be out. But if they offer Texas and Tech and get them to agree to come on board at the end of 2025 they effectively eliminate Oklahoma State's slot. Oklahoma can't take O.S.U. with them to the Big 10. Oklahoma still wants the RRR and wants Texas exposure for recruiting. Where Oklahoma goes Kansas makes sense as a second whether that is to the Big 10, where Kansas doesn't add enough on their own to get in, or to the SEC.

If ESPN wants the top 3 brands of the Big 12 the way to get it is to make sure of Texas and Tech, and to finesse OSU out of the picture getting Oklahoma to decided to stay with Texas so they can keep Bedlam OOC. That leaves the slot for Kansas which helps Missouri to settle into the SEC with support.

Then the SEC becomes this:
Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

This gives ESPN full rights to Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma. It gives them the 3 largest P5 state schools in Texas. And it leaves the only other property worth acquiring from the Big 12 for the ACC (WVU).

Add Iowa State, Baylor, T.C.U. Oklahoma State and Kansas State to the ACC and you have something there as well if you are ESPN. That's a lot of good Thursday and Friday games and some good streams and ESPN2 filler on Saturdays.

Now you move to 9 conference games. 5 division games 2 permanent rivals, and rotate the rest 2 per year. You have 2 buy games and 1 P OOC game per year. Fit the OOC game to be a home game in the years you only have 4 conference games at home and make the 2 buy games home games and you have 7 games a year you can sell as home games in the season ticket book. The conference moves to semi finals between the 3 division champs and 1 at large.

The Strength of this move would be evident should the ACC ever face a threat from the Big 10. In such an event it would be easy for ESPN to create a 4th SEC six team division to move the SEC to 24:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville or West Virginia, North Carolina or N.C. State, Virginia or Virginia Tech, depending upon how things broke.