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If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
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JRsec Offline
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RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
(02-14-2020 01:12 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-10-2020 09:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-10-2020 09:15 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(02-10-2020 05:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If Oklahoma and Kansas join the SEC the SEC would feel like they were done. They would however have gained a leg up on content over the Big 10. I don't see how the Big 10 can stand by in that regard.

So yes I think they make overtures to Notre Dame. But I don't see them pairing Iowa State with them. Colorado would be free to move if they haven't signed a new GOR. With the Denver market available and the media revenue twice as much in the Big 10 I would think that a play for Colorado and Notre Dame would trump a play for Iowa State paired with the same.

That makes things interesting for Texas to the PAC. Theoretically that means 5 Big 12 schools could make the move, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech make the move to the PAC which moves to 16 schools.

West Virginia and T.C.U. move to the ACC.

The PAC picks up 2 AAU schools with goliath Texas and Iowa State. Texas Tech is not a bad add. Kansas State's academics aren't bad. Only Oklahoma State would draw a raised brow.

Tech slips into Colorado's slot and Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State become part of a quad.

Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
Arizona, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Utah
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas

They play the 3 in their division and 2 each from the other 3 divisions for a total of 9 conference games. They rotate through the conference every 2 years.

That solves the 2nd school issue for the Big 10 should Colorado go for the stability and money. It satisfies the SEC And it builds up the PAC. If the ACC adds T.C.U. and West Virginia to 16 should either B.C. or Wake opt out with pay for play Baylor is waiting in the wings.

But if Colorado isn't interested then the Big 10 will likely go after Virginia with Notre Dame. If Va Tech stays in the ACC at that point maybe that stabilizes things. If North Carolina wants out too for enhanced revenue then we are off to races as the SEC would start thinking of adding schools to defend its footprint. I think that's where the danger of moving to 2 leagues comes into play.

BTW: If the PAC was able to secure a major brand and 2 schools from a state of 28 million to help their sagging market penetration, and add 3 more states also in a different time zone in which to market their games, I think they would take other schools and really Iowa State and KState aren't detritus. They stand to gain a lot by taking OSU.

We might as well take Colorado and stick at 15 until the white whale says yes. Of course, the risk is that they'll say no to us again. However, the upside is we get a near optimal national exposure without risking academic standing too much.

KU and OU are programs that, especially if they stick together, can stand on their own and have a pick of two major conferences to go to.

What I see is an opportunity for both the PAC and Texas to satisfy their respective interests. Neither the Big 10, the SEC and probably not the ACC would agree to take an entourage with Texas. So the "Texas & Friends to PAC" scenario may be more viable than thought. Texas wants a group of programs in their immediate circle that are, more or less, amenable to their opinions. They don't want a situation where they'd feel isolated by the northern schools in the Big 10 or the big time football schools in the South. The PAC has enough programs out West that they wouldn't be easily bullied by UT and UT really likes an association with Stanford, UCLA, etc., anyway. UT may look into independence but then the rump Big 12 would have to bring in G programs to replace OU and KU, and the other power conferences don't want to elevate more programs to begin with. Therefore, I think the incentive is there for both sides to compromise.

I'd be fine with just taking Colorado and wait.

Contrary to what X states Notre Dame would likely jump at an opportunity to double their media revenue. What's more is if the Big 12 is parsed and Texas and friends do head West, it becomes much more likely that the CFP becomes a 4 champs affair. That means that Notre Dame has to join fully somewhere or they are just odd man out. And even if the playoff were to expand to 8 scheduling P games as the only independent would become extremely difficult to do which has what has led the Irish to these partial conference agreements. It actually helped them fill out their schedule, a task which all alone would be extremely hard to accomplish with top schools.

And look at it this way, if the ACC takes T.C.U. and West Virginia where the former adds key markets and the latter offers a competitive school with a loyal following that plays all 3 major sports very competitively then they have to open up their GOR to let them in and get new contracts signed and that gives N.D. a way out, particularly if ESPN augmented that transition to curry favor to keep 49% of the Big 10 contract.

And also remember, that with an exit fee, and the purchase back of 5 ACC games a year, a Notre Dame in the Big 10 would still be coming out ahead over where they are now until their obligation to the ACC expired, and that's worst case. What they could do is contract with the Big 10 for 4 games a season until 2035 as that would allow them to keep 3 games with which to schedule an SEC school which they have on the books, U.S.C., and Navy.


I have no crystal ball and have read everything posted on this subject, so I will just say this.

ND could have doubled its media revenues (it was only getting $15 million from NBC then) in 2012 by joining the Big Ten then, but did not.

It could have cashed in big, reduced travel costs, had local rivalries....everything that every school could want.

Why didn't it? It had no legal entanglements then, no GOR, no exit fee, etc...

People on the outside always seriously underestimate two things:

1) How much ND does not want to join any conference for football and,

2) How much ND people despise and do not want to fully join the Big Ten, especially in football.

ND has a five game deal with the ACC that satisfies their November scheduling needs, so nothing much has to change there.

If the playoffs are legally mandated as a P4 champs only thing, ND will likely join the ACC in full.

If the playoffs expand to eight, ND will stay the indy course indefinitely.

ND's NBC TV contract expires in 2025. It will be interesting to see if it merely re-ups in house with NBC as it has the past 30 years or puts the deal on the market. CBS? ESPN?

What can of stand alone deal can ND individually negotiate in light of rising contracts for the SEC and Big Ten?
Terry D even you know there will be ambivalence over sums reaching 75 million or more in media revenue.

And if there is movement out of the Big 12 and we move to a P4 a playoff slot could be the ultimate motivator.

I know you feelings on this matter and I also know nothing is set in stone. Perhaps Notre Dame does get another stand alone contract with a major network. Ironically that could be CBS. But there is much that could change in any direction and that's not withstanding the rights to image and pay for play. We'll see. But just as I might be wrong about your Irish so you could be as well. And we've both agreed that's a lot of money.
02-14-2020 01:38 PM
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Messages In This Thread
SEC Expansion - vandiver49 - 10-11-2013, 08:43 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand - 10thMountain - 05-02-2014, 02:49 PM
RE: B12 - jhawkmvp - 05-02-2014, 11:00 PM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 11-04-2014, 02:34 AM
schools making profits - jhawkmvp - 11-12-2014, 12:32 AM
RE: expansion - oliveandblue - 12-03-2014, 12:41 AM
My wild guess - jhawkmvp - 12-09-2014, 12:39 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 12-25-2014, 11:04 PM
RE: If the SEC did expand... - Transic_nyc - 09-19-2015, 01:41 AM
RE - Transic_nyc - 10-21-2017, 03:15 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 10-21-2017, 06:35 PM
RE: ? - Transic_nyc - 10-22-2017, 01:02 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand... - Transic_nyc - 03-05-2018, 11:46 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why? - JRsec - 02-14-2020 01:38 PM
RE: If ... - Transic_nyc - 12-18-2020, 01:45 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 01-26-2021, 10:59 AM
RE: If - Transic_nyc - 01-27-2021, 12:58 AM
RE: If - Transic_nyc - 03-07-2021, 02:25 PM
RE: If ... - Transic_nyc - 03-09-2021, 06:34 AM



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