(07-19-2018 12:57 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 10:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  So what's your angle then Odin Frigg?

My top personal preferences would not be reality, so it is fruitless to list them. I'm more of an "east side" proponent and P5 extraction options there are not fluid.


That said, and just dealing with "two" from the B12 (not more than that please; and just one would be more to my liking if a current ACC school could be pulled from NC). Texas & NC State? I'd say that's near a grand slam. I'd be OK with any one ACC school, some better than others of course, from UVA all the way down to Miami. Sankey is not enough of a wheeler-dealer for this.


So, I agree on Texas. Oklahoma too? I am less sure it will happen that way. OU with oSu? Not bad. Not my personal ideal.

If it comes down to a #16 pick among oSu, TTU, KU, KSU, ISU, or WVU, I'd say fine if coupled with Texas. I am less keen about TCU on several factors; and Baylor and their mess is a no-go. That said, Kansas and ISU have the better "academic" credentials to show. My prime issue with ISU are the location and travel involved.
They try hard, and give them credit for that. As to the others from the B12, each also have attributes and certain negatives. When the time comes those ADs and Presidents will need to decide who they want to play and bring into the fold, weighing all the variables. I am really suspicious of ESPN dictates on this; if that is really what they do. Consult, negotiate, and get figures, yes.

Whether you pick the ACC or SEC if you really study the moves, and plot the rights on a map, there is little doubt as to whether ESPN is heavily involved. This isn't the thread for it, but their heavy hand IMO is not even debatable.

As to Eastern expansion ESPN simply refusing to pay the SEC to take those schools is why it hasn't happened. No doubt Duke and North Carolina are only potential acquisitions if the ACC were to collapse. I don't see N.C. State in the new pay model for sports rights being as valuable to us as they were in 2010. Virginia Tech might be as valuable as they would have been in 2010, but really we are talking outlier status there too when it comes to travel for most of the conference.

I agree we need a second Florida school and that Miami fills a geographical gap, while providing a strong academic add. I have my doubts about the composition of Miami the city moving forward. I don't know if football will continue to be an asset there beyond my time. Culture, and the die off of the Northeastern snowbirds aren't going to help it moving forward. I've had my eye on South Florida for an add 20 years out.

Oklahoma and Texas together anywhere represents a major destabilizing force between the conferences and the networks may not want to introduce such a destabilizing component into it. Splitting Texas and Oklahoma between the SEC and Big 10 might be more to their liking, although still not ideal from a stability standpoint. So I also agree that there is no clear cut solution to the current configurations.

If balance is what we want a 20 school PAC that absorbs the Big 12, and a Big 10 and SEC that both move to 20 out of the ACC is about as balanced as it gets. But we won't see that much movement because it's too much for fans to absorb and too risky because of it. This is why some of the ACC guys were speculating on simply moving to conferences of 15.

It will be moot likely past my lifetime if the Big 12 renews their GOR and status quo is maintained.

There are multiple catalysts for change at work here though and that is what clouds the picture.

There is the sports rights accretion that drives the A.D.'s and commissioners who are looking for bigger paychecks. There is the academic partnering that is being driven by demographic changes, restrictions on Federal and State funding, and their marketing agendas for students. And there is the commercial interest of the networks.

If you try to gain a grasp of what the concerted impact of these may yield and you try to find schools that fit all three agendas then your clear cut candidates are essentially 1, Texas. So if you need sports branding and value impact you add Oklahoma. If you wan't academic props you do look East. Kansas and Iowa State are AAU but in the bottom third of it. If you are a network you want another great draw. Outside of Texas there are no other schools in the Big 12 or ACC that check all three boxes. There is only the best of the rest.

But we are nearing the completion of this consolidation, so it is to be expected that the pickings are getting slimmer.

I like Oklahoma if we can't get Texas. I don't see us getting an ACC school. Their GOR expires in 2037 which will be past peak football. And quite frankly may well be past peak higher education and into a period of consolidation within state systems of higher education which will see smaller privates closing and directional state schools either being assimilated, retooled for vocational accreditation, or closed.

I believe travel will only get more costly and will curtail athletic associations.

So if Texas and Oklahoma renew their GOR and if the ACC is ever to be a target, then I could see movement in 2037 but it wouldn't be as much of a raid by the SEC as a consolidation back into regional flagships. Then North Carolina, Virginia, Duke and Miami, in a new redistricted South might see the wisdom of combining political influence to lobby for what they need and want. Texas and Oklahoma could easily be part of it. It is after all the only reason I see the Big 10 needing and wanting to move its sphere of influence Southeast or Southwest.