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If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #1613
RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
(06-17-2018 09:42 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 08:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 08:19 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 01:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Strategy #2:

We ignore Oklahoma. In fact we ignore them so long that they have to take a deal to the Big 10 with Kansas. Now we don't have to take Oklahoma State. We don't need to consider a putrid Kansas football product. We don't need to think about Iowa State. But what we do is wait. We wait on a pissed off Texas who won't like their options in the PAC, who won't like the idea of forcing their fans to play in the great white North. And who likely only need a good excuse to reclaim rivalries with Arkansas and Texas A&M and who quietly may realize that having Baylor and T.C.U. in the same conference at an elevated status has not benefited the Longhorn program.

ESPN wants Texas. Slive once said that the SEC would be proud to have any or all of the 3 major Texas public schools. (He said this while speaking in Dallas at some function.) If Texas doesn't want Tech tagging along then fine. If they do then fine. If they don't want Tech we offer #16 to West Virginia. If they do want Tech we take them.

What does this do for Texas?

1. In minimizes Oklahoma's recruiting profile in Texas, specifically in Dallas / Ft. Worth. How? They at most would have 1 game a year there and 1 game a year against a Texas school (Texas). Travel for the parents of the Oklahoma recruits from Texas would be extensive. The closest away game would be Kansas. If the kids go to Texas, Texas A&M or Texas Tech they will likely have 6 or 7 games in Texas. This hurts Oklahoma and helps Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech.

2. Baylor and T.C.U. are not promoted to a P5 conference. Why? Baylor doesn't fit the PAC profile. T.C.U. may be a long shot to receive a PAC invitation but without OU or UT heading West I don't think it is likely the PAC will expand. This too benefits Texas. Now major recruits in the state of Texas have two fewer home choices if they want to play in a P conference. More available talent staying in Texas where they are divided among only 3 top Texas programs means all three Texas schools enhance their depth.

3. Carrying the same brand as A&M helps to re-elevate the Longhorn program. The SEC consistently gets the most players drafted by the NFL. That advantage for the Aggies is neutralized and the game once again becomes an annual event, as does Texas / Arkansas, Texas / L.S.U., Texas / Ole Miss, Texas / Missouri, and Texas / Texas Tech remains on the schedule.

4. For the reason of scheduling this move is the best Texas can make outside of staying in the Big 12 and with OU as an annual OOC game they have schedule integrity maintained for key rivals and enhanced for other divisional games.

5. This does make us all more money not only due to the Texas brand but because all P schools in Texas would be SEC properties. And the likely remaining schools in Texas would be ESPN properties through the AAC. This give Texas (And A&M and Tech) the most leverage they will have anywhere outside of the old SWC.

Now what is good for the SEC is point #5 and the fact that by landing Texas there is no way any other conference can catch our value.

If Texas didn't want to keep the OU game for some reason it could be easily replaced with an annual OOC game against Notre Dame or USC depending upon ESPN wishes.

So we don't land Oklahoma. But we land Texas who now contends with a weakened Oklahoma. For the SEC we incorporate an old OOC foe and help to neutralize the other.

IMO, this is also a win. And and as I have pointed out before if it gives ESPN (and the SEC) control over Texas game day advertising it's a win for rights holder as well.

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Would some in the SEC balk about suggesting 3 total schools from Texas? Arguments could be made that perhaps Oklahoma State or Kansas State would render as much or possibly more value than Texas Tech. TTU is a very long way from non-Texas SEC schools. Doubt if SEC-east would show enthusiasm for it. Even Iowa State would be closer to most SEC schools.

From an athletic standpoint, Oklahoma State surpasses TTU, ISU, and KSU. As to market, oSu looks the better.

This is not me stating my preferences. But it would be matters in the early discussion phase.

I don't think so. Having 3 weekly games with a regional market of 28 million would salve a lot of sore spots. The financial bonanza of Texas's brand and having all 3 P schools in the state would bring premiums. Besides, for A&M and UT Lubbock isn't that far. And the additions fit the ESPN model of acquisitions. They triple down in a mammoth state at the exclusion of double dipping in a state of 4 million. Arkansas isn't that far from Lubbock and the two Mississippi schools and L.S.U. aren't much farther away than Auburn is from Arkansas. Missouri has had to play them before.

It's not ideal but it is doable.

The P4 conspiracy & great compromise at the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson Ramada Plaza Executive Conference Room:

ACC: Gets WVU. Notre Dame, either go FT or Baylor gets a spot.

BIG: Gets Kansas and Iowa State. Oh shut up Delany, they are AAU which you brag about.

PAC: Gets OU, oSu, TexasTech, and TCU. Accept it. It is very generous

SEC: Gets the b*tch, mean Texas. For getting top prize, must take Kansas State.
-----------------
Dang, need to take the nighttime meds.....

A+ for effort. If this were 2010 when ESPN was pulling the majority of the moves and FOX was getting its feet wet, and the market model still predominated, I would agree that some form of a compromise would be in order to work this fiasco out.

But we are talking 2023, plus or minus one, where FOX and ESPN might not cooperate, where FAANG enterprises might get involved, and at a time when secrecy behind the scenes in the Big 12 will likely be the norm since by 2023 leaving the conference at the end of 2024 would leave virtually no damages due to the GOR that the last year of funds held by the Big 12 wouldn't cover. So I don't anticipate a great effort to try to place all of the Big 12 schools. If they can fine. If the can't they probably won't be worried about it.

So if it comes down to cherry picking, and I believe it will, the SEC will make a defensively minded offensive move for either Oklahoma or Texas because either of them locks us in financially. ESPN's preference would be for Texas because they want to hold their rights and FOX has a slight interest in the Sooners.

So if Oklahoma heads to the Big 10 with Kansas, then the SEC will do what it takes to get Texas and that just might mean Tech.

Notre Dame and West Virginia fills out East coast expansion.

If the PAC wants to expand they have Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and T.C.U. to get there.

Now the variant here is if Oklahoma wants in and Texas is coy then the SEC can go with Oklahoma and whoever they desire as a companion (likely OSU). Then the Big 10 might just pass. There isn't enough value for them in Kansas and I don't see Texas heading to the Big 10. Maybe then Kansas, Texas, Iowa State and Texas Tech head to the PAC. West Virginia heads to the SEC. And Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State and T.C.U. are just S.O.L.

Each conference is going to do what it takes (within their parameters) to land one of the biggest 2 brands left on the realignment table. Whether there are any legs for Texas to the PAC will depend on whether or not ESPN winds up with an interest in the PACN. The LHN doesn't expire until 2031 and ESPN holds that leash.

If Oklahoma and Kansas head to a FOX held conference like the Big 10 you had better believe that ESPN will be working hard to land Texas in either the SEC or ACC and I have to believe that the SEC would be the preferable option due to distance and old rivals. In terms of earning potential T.C.U. would be the better partner for Texas. But I would think Texas might have a lot to say about that. Texas Tech as an earner is lower than both Baylor and T.C.U. despite the alumni advantage. Kansas State is about on par with Tech and Iowa State is pretty far down the list. Oklahoma State would be better as a partner with Texas if the Horns would agree to it. But if OU is headed off North I wouldn't give a plugged nickel for the chances of the Pokes.

I think the ACC would be foolish not to take WVU. They clearly bring more to the table than anyone else the ACC could consider outside of Notre Dame.

The only upside to Tech is the complete sweep of the Texas public P5's which does bring a premium in advertising rates to the holder. But for the SEC holding Austin basically gives us all we need to completely dominate Texas. So sure it would be wonderful to pick up another state. But with Texas we get locked into the top value for business by quite a bit over the Big 10 (based on the WSJ estimations), we end up with the deepest branding which insures the best pay in a content driven world of streaming, we have the broadest possible depth in high viewer saturation states which also insures our continued leverage with ad rates beyond just Texas, and we likely wind up back on top in TV revenue. So if they want Tech in it will be so.

All of this said this is Strategy #2. I think our main play is OU and OSU. Monetarily it does almost as much for us, gives us a slightly better pair than Texas & Tech, and leaves the Longhorns in a tough position with regard to the Big 10 and PAC. It almost forces Texas to consider seriously the SEC option. Plus if the SEC lands Oklahoma then ESPN has to like its chances to eventually hold onto Texas whether that is in the SEC, in the ACC with some partial deal, or as a lure to the PAC.

Anyway hopefully we'll see in a few years.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2018 11:02 PM by JRsec.)
06-17-2018 10:55 PM
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Messages In This Thread
SEC Expansion - vandiver49 - 10-11-2013, 08:43 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand - 10thMountain - 05-02-2014, 02:49 PM
RE: B12 - jhawkmvp - 05-02-2014, 11:00 PM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 11-04-2014, 02:34 AM
schools making profits - jhawkmvp - 11-12-2014, 12:32 AM
RE: expansion - oliveandblue - 12-03-2014, 12:41 AM
My wild guess - jhawkmvp - 12-09-2014, 12:39 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 12-25-2014, 11:04 PM
RE: If the SEC did expand... - Transic_nyc - 09-19-2015, 01:41 AM
RE - Transic_nyc - 10-21-2017, 03:15 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 10-21-2017, 06:35 PM
RE: ? - Transic_nyc - 10-22-2017, 01:02 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand... - Transic_nyc - 03-05-2018, 11:46 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why? - JRsec - 06-17-2018 10:55 PM
RE: If ... - Transic_nyc - 12-18-2020, 01:45 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 01-26-2021, 10:59 AM
RE: If - Transic_nyc - 01-27-2021, 12:58 AM
RE: If - Transic_nyc - 03-07-2021, 02:25 PM
RE: If ... - Transic_nyc - 03-09-2021, 06:34 AM



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