(06-11-2018 10:22 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-11-2018 05:21 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I think if both Fox and ESPN profited equally from waiving the GOR then they might just do that. I don't see any way they profit equally though.

There's too many moving parts to make every player happy whether that's the networks, the conferences, or all the current Big 12 schools.

I think the only simple solution in all of this would be the absorption of the Big 12, but that carries its own set of issues.

I wouldn't discount, however, that ESPN might be interested in moving more than 4 schools into the SEC from the Big 12 when the 1st Tier rights come up for bid. I think one of their goals will be moving Power 5 content to ESPN+. That will be one of the best ways to guarantee subscriptions for a large number of people who might be willing to stick around all year long.

If the RSN deal goes through with Fox then ESPN is going to have a lot of out of market content to sell online. Ultimately, the price of that service is going to jump if it really takes off. If that happens then the only real gap that ESPN+ will have in its product offerings(as far as popular demand goes) will be Power 5 football and basketball. At that point, the more schools under their umbrella the more content they can move to ESPN+ and guarantee more subs during that portion of the calendar year.

If I had to bet, I think ESPN would rather keep the ACC together in that scenario. The only way ESPN would gain dominion by breaking up the ACC is if they could use ACC properties to secure a contract with the Big Ten. The problem is that the Big Ten has shown a propensity for not playing along so even if ESPN got a more favorable deal with that league then the long term costs might not be worth it. I think we've entered a time period when conferences have figured out that shorter term deals are better for negotiations and the B1G is probably not going back to the old way, but more than that there's no guarantee that the B1G would continue to partner with ESPN past the expiration date of one contract. The league could just as easily take their newfound ACC schools and sign with someone else.

I think ESPN has a long term interest in maintaining the ACC. The problem will be paying those schools enough so that they don't have wandering eyes. Getting Notre Dame to go all in will be key so I think eliminating the Big 12 has got to be high on the priority list so that we can move steadily in the direction of a CFP format with no options for an independent team.

No new SWC for Texas and no outlet for ND. I think that's got to be ESPN's play. That means the ACC needs value and more TX schools have to be accounted for.

I would suggest something like this...

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Kansas State to the SEC

TCU, Houston, and West Virginia move to the ACC with Notre Dame joining in full.

Contracts are back loaded. GOR's are front loaded. By the time that 1 year remains on a GOR it is essentially meaningless as far as a buyout goes. That is why 2023-4 is the time frame.

So there won't be enough left on the FOX portion of the GOR to worry about. ESPN can still instigate these moves unilaterally. Also I don't think 18 is likely for the SEC unless Texas wants in after OU and OSU have been offered. If we move to 20 it won't be just out of the Big 12. And if we added OU and UT out of the Big 12 I don't think we would expand further unless it was a defensive move.

If we stop at 16 with the OK schools then the question becomes where does ESPN want to move Texas?

UT sliding in as number 16 for the ACC as long as Notre Dame joins up would work fine numbers wise and money wise, but I don't see UT wanting to make that move by themselves. The PAC won't offer a lot of money and the B1G has too many innate disadvantages. A rebuilt SWC probably wouldn't fly either. The money wouldn't be that great and exposure would be limited.

If Texas doesn't choose the SEC then they'll lose some of their stature in the long term given that all their major regional rivals would have left town.

It would be simpler to scrap a few of the Big 12 schools and build a new league around Texas and Oklahoma using a few ACC schools than it would be to divide the Big 12. Geographically speaking, it would be more cohesive. That and ESPN maintains total control over the ACC so voiding their GOR early wouldn't be a big deal as long as they were retaining control over the properties.

I don't think using ACC schools to lure in the Big Ten is likely to pay off. For one, I don't think there would be a great number of desirable ACC schools that would have as their highest priority to make that move. Two, there's no guarantee the B1G would stay loyal to ESPN and they are most definitely going to divide their rights either way.