(06-10-2018 09:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-10-2018 10:37 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(06-10-2018 02:39 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-10-2018 12:45 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(06-09-2018 11:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Well Kansas State in the SEC should become "the" football school in Kansas. I agree we could do worse. But we could also do better. But really any of the 18 school scenarios I laid out above would be acceptable.

What would be ideal is for Texas Tech, T.C.U., Kansas State and Oklahoma State to head to the PAC to take them to 16. The Big 10 bites the bullet and takes the only two AAU schools left and adds Kansas and Iowa State. The ACC takes West Virginia and waits on Notre Dame and the SEC moves to 16 with the Sooners and Horns.

The second best option is for us to move to 18 with Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and any of West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas State, T.C.U., or even Texas Tech.

Then the next best option is OU and OSU to 16.

If we get Oklahoma and Texas in the deal then it almost doesn't matter who the other two are...assuming it's necessary to go to 18 in order to land both studs.

With that said, I think some of those options are better than others.

Kansas adds subs, but doesn't offer much content value outside of basketball. Kansas State accesses a different market so they probably bring more value than Oklahoma State assuming we already have Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State is not a bad addition as far as content. It's just that they wouldn't give us much that Oklahoma didn't already secure. It's probably a safe bet that OSU is required to get OU though so it might not matter.

We've covered what I think of TCU.

Texas Tech is a decent addition in some respects, but we're not talking about a school with a huge fan base and it's atypical for them to provide much quality in regards to football or basketball. Texas might want them included, but I'm not sure UT is going to care.

Baylor offers very little. Iowa State would be an interesting choice, but they're awfully far away and I'm not sure the fit would be that tight.

Actually, I think West Virginia becomes more valuable in a streaming environment. They get you some subs up through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. You're always going to get decent football and probably decent basketball as long as they've got the money to spend on a coach.

There's not a lot of obvious choices here, but I'd say that if we could wrangle away TCU in addition to Texas and Oklahoma then we've got the vast, vast majority of value the Big 12 offers.

I would also say move to 20 so we don't have to figure out a tiebreaker system to send a wildcard to the conference semis. That and I think the more the merrier when it comes to creating value with streaming. The more content under one roof the better off we'll be in any negotiation.

In your reply you forgot the supposition of the discussion. That first it was necessary to take OSU to insure landing OU. Therefore for the purposes of this page of posts the active question was "What if after OU an OSU are offered, Texas decides to apply?" Therefore we are assuming 3 schools: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas. So the operative question was who is #4 and why? Odin Frigg seems to prefer Kansas State. I tend toward W.V.U. Odin Frigg tends to discount T.C.U. and I understand why. If we have the two Oklahoma's, and Texas in addition to Texas A&M and Arkansas we have the vast majority of the DFW market without T.C.U..

While I see value in having a school actually in DFW, their value would however be greatly diminished compared to the collective fan bases of the other 5 schools.

I see brand value in Kansas suckwind football or not and Missouri might prefer them, (might not) but they are their rival.

West Virginia does bring an interesting market. Kansas State does add the state of Kansas to our profile but that's a state of under 3 million.

Premise of the discussion aside if I could simply pick 4 without having to consider the politics and leverage necessary to make a big move happen I would simply take Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and West Virginia. That's three new states and 2 huge prizes.

Then the conference would look like this:

Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia.

Without taking ACC schools that's as a complete haul of value from the Big 12 as we could acquire.

I'm just relatively convinced that Oklahoma State may be necessary.

If Oklahoma State is the price for getting the wheels moving then there's really no reason not to take them. They're a decent brand and they would fit well. The streaming model would actually increase their value as the specific market doesn't matter as much. I have no issue with OSU if it's politically necessary.

Kansas does have greater brand value of any potential 4th. I think ESPN wants to keep them in the fold anyway so my theory has been the network would attempt to push UT, OU, OSU, and KU into the SEC.

The only snag I see is timing. If we need the cooperation of other leagues to get what we want then I wouldn't bet on an amicable separation of the Big 12.

Of course, we could just wait until the GOR is up to attempt any moves. I actually think our only other option would be to absorb the entire league.

I think if the pair of Oklahoma schools have a way out in 2023-4 that they take it. They give a one year's notice and the money the conference withholds becomes their buyout. If Texas wants out at that point then they could either leave the same way along with the 4th, or they could wait a year and then move with the 4th without having any revenue withheld.

If they come sooner than at the end of 2023-4 then yeah the network is going to have to promise at least 8 of them homes. They vote to disband the conference (8 votes) and that voids the GOR which can also be waived by the networks.

I think if both Fox and ESPN profited equally from waiving the GOR then they might just do that. I don't see any way they profit equally though.

There's too many moving parts to make every player happy whether that's the networks, the conferences, or all the current Big 12 schools.

I think the only simple solution in all of this would be the absorption of the Big 12, but that carries its own set of issues.

I wouldn't discount, however, that ESPN might be interested in moving more than 4 schools into the SEC from the Big 12 when the 1st Tier rights come up for bid. I think one of their goals will be moving Power 5 content to ESPN+. That will be one of the best ways to guarantee subscriptions for a large number of people who might be willing to stick around all year long.

If the RSN deal goes through with Fox then ESPN is going to have a lot of out of market content to sell online. Ultimately, the price of that service is going to jump if it really takes off. If that happens then the only real gap that ESPN+ will have in its product offerings(as far as popular demand goes) will be Power 5 football and basketball. At that point, the more schools under their umbrella the more content they can move to ESPN+ and guarantee more subs during that portion of the calendar year.

If I had to bet, I think ESPN would rather keep the ACC together in that scenario. The only way ESPN would gain dominion by breaking up the ACC is if they could use ACC properties to secure a contract with the Big Ten. The problem is that the Big Ten has shown a propensity for not playing along so even if ESPN got a more favorable deal with that league then the long term costs might not be worth it. I think we've entered a time period when conferences have figured out that shorter term deals are better for negotiations and the B1G is probably not going back to the old way, but more than that there's no guarantee that the B1G would continue to partner with ESPN past the expiration date of one contract. The league could just as easily take their newfound ACC schools and sign with someone else.

I think ESPN has a long term interest in maintaining the ACC. The problem will be paying those schools enough so that they don't have wandering eyes. Getting Notre Dame to go all in will be key so I think eliminating the Big 12 has got to be high on the priority list so that we can move steadily in the direction of a CFP format with no options for an independent team.

No new SWC for Texas and no outlet for ND. I think that's got to be ESPN's play. That means the ACC needs value and more TX schools have to be accounted for.

I would suggest something like this...

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Kansas State to the SEC

TCU, Houston, and West Virginia move to the ACC with Notre Dame joining in full.