The way I view TCU is as an Achilles heel for the Big 12. Their vital organs are located elsewhere, but taking TCU could be the strike that brings everything else down.

I wouldn't mind leading with that.

Let's say the SEC struck first by taking TCU. This not only puts pressure on Texas, but on Oklahoma as well. OU would know at that point that the Big 12 could never replace the value that TCU brings and having the SEC with a direct presence in DFW is a threat to the entire conference.

Texas would also know at that point that the SEC would be in their backyard to a degree that could not be mitigated.

So one of two things happens:

1) You end up pitting OU and UT against each other to find out which one wants into the SEC more. Perhaps Texas agrees to come by themselves and we could just settle at 16.

2) Oklahoma leadership goes to Austin and says it's time to give up the ghost. Perhaps then they organize a broader move to the SEC for the both of them.