(12-14-2017 08:51 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  The PAC really isn't in a good position. Not only do they not have distribution and strong profits under their current setup, but they just lost a significant degree of power in charting their own future.

The Big 12, by contrast, has a few things going for them right now...

1. ESPN now controls the T3 rights of the entire league which doesn't necessarily guarantee a Big 12 Network, but it does create leverage for ESPN to use the Big 12 to acquire other properties.

2. It's true that the Big 12 was overpaid a little bit in order to stabilize things, but there no longer exists an entity capable of bidding up the price of the Big 12 to any significant degree. While this sounds like a disadvantage for the league, more than that, it means the league doesn't have to worry about being parsed out in order to appease the interests of multiple networks.

3. Texas still wants to play regional rivals

When it comes to the PAC, however, things aren't looking up.

1. The PAC Networks still aren't that profitable and ESPN likely doesn't have to worry about FOX buying the PACN. It's true that FOX is now flush with cash, but the overwhelming majority of the sale price came in the form of stocks. Fox now owns a fair chunk of Disney and therefore will wish Disney to be very successful. They aren't about to start competing with them on a direct level and risk the value of their own investment.

2. The PAC is geographically disadvantaged. They never had any great prospects for expansion outside of raiding the Big 12. If that's off the table then maybe they could strike some kind of deal with the B1G, but that's a heck of a lot of travel.

The PAC might have very little choice other than to do whatever ESPN wants them to do. What exactly that will be, I'm not sure.

That's a true and very important part of what is going to happen moving forward. But don't count out one contingency. Perhaps ESPN will need for FOX to buy the PAC if they are going to count on their cooperation. ESPN is dangerously close to owning a % of the College Sports Market that would constitute a monopoly.

I do believe that is one reason they didn't try to acquire the BTN or FS1 or FS2.

In this deal two areas were sensitive to the government as far as anti-trust was concerned. The main one was News coverage. The secondary one is the college sports market. Since having a majority share gives ESPN undue leverage over the payouts for rights and since that particularly affects state universities, there is political interest in keeping the transactions mutual.

I expect, based on the business channels today, that the government is going to call into question the purchase of the RSN's. The fact that the News and FS1 & 2 and the BTN are not included is, IMO, a calculated move to avoid government intervention to the deal.

But, too your point. It's an excellent one to signal that whatever happens will not damage ESPN's or FOX's holdings. To me that means that the parsing or the salvation of the Big 12 are equally possible. So specifically if the PAC doesn't sell out to ESPN or FOX the parsing of those schools is very likely. I truly believe the Cali schools and at least Oregon and Washington will stick together in a move most likely to the Big 12 where new contracts could really payout as well as anything the SEC or Big 10 could offer.

I also believe that the shedding of duplication in the Texas market will occur and the release of West Virginia will as well. T.C.U., Baylor, and West Virginia might all be up for grabs as niche markets.

However if the PAC does sell out, then the resolution of the Big 12 also becomes much more likely. Perhaps then Texas does opt to head West, and perhaps Oklahoma does opt to stick with OSU in the SEC, and perhaps ESPN and FOX could make Kansas and Iowa State attractive to the Big 10.

There is a whole lot of potential for resolution to the realignment process if this deal is finalized by government approval.