(10-20-2017 08:56 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  One possible outcome: Texas and OU to the SEC (for the payout), WVU to the ACC (for the value of the rivalries), and who knows about the rest - maybe the private schools to the ACC and the public to the SEC?

It's a tough question.

Ideally UT & OU alone is the home run. At least if they insist upon other state schools (TTU & OSU) the prospect is still profitable, just not nearly as much. But the SEC no doubt would prefer the tag along schools to be from different states if it was required (KU & ISU) or (KU & WVU).

It's seldom mentioned on talk boards but there is a ration between the number of states a conference has and their overall success.

For instance the SEC has 14 members in 11 states. The same is true of the Big 10. We each have 3 duplicate schools but each one in both cases is essentially a founding member (Michigan St is the exception).

So the SEC is #1 in Gross Total Revenue, #1 in Business Impact Valuation, #1 in attendance, #2 in TV Revenue, & #1 in ratio of actual viewers to total possible viewers.

The Big 10 is #2 in all of those except TV revenue where their last renewal bumped them above the SEC's current payout.

The Big 12 is the most vulnerable conference because they only occupy 5 states but have 5 duplicate schools in those states.

The PAC 12 is the laggard because they only occupy 6 states and have 6 duplicates

The oddity is the ACC which by correlation should be third in most categories but they are not. You represent 10 states but have 5 duplicate schools.

But the Big 12 is 3rd in every metric because of Texas & Oklahoma and to a lesser extent Kansas. West Virginia has always been believed to have an impact business wise, but the numbers from the WSJ indicate that they are 66th in the FBS in generating business by their sports programs presence.

The PAC is 4th in gross total revenue, 4th in business impact, 4th in attendance, 4th in TV revenue, and tied for last with the ACC for actual ration of actual viewers out of total possible viewers.

What these numbers indicate to me is that first you don't want duplicates unless they
are core members or absolutely necessary. And the only two schools with financial coattails long enough to take second state schools with them are Texas and Oklahoma. Nobody else can. If Duke gets in somewhere else some day it will be on their own steam.

The two commissioners who have done the least are Scott & Swofford. While it's true that Swofford helped cobble together an ACC that has been able to survive so far it is equally true that privates don't generate the business around their programs that publics do.

It's my opinion that the number of privates impacts these numbers severely as well. The SEC and Big 10 each have only 1 private school (Vanderbilt and Northwestern).
The PAC has 2 (Stanford and U.S.C.). The Big 12 has 2 (Baylor and T.C.U.). But the ACC has 5 and a half and one hybrid (Boston College, Duke, Miami, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Wake Forest are privates and Pitt functions as a private but does have State funding).

As a result of this the ACC is dead last in gross total revenue, business impact, attendance, and the ration of actual viewers to total possible viewers.

Now I say this Hokie Mark to point out that the Big 12 is the last possible place from which the ACC can draw more state schools. You'd better figure out how to do it. ESPN might not be able to protect you moving forward like they have heretofore. There will be a lot more players for sports rights in the marketplace.

But all of this is why ESPN tried to get the ACC to add 3 state schools, all national brands and Notre Dame in full at the cost of 2 duplicated states. If that deal had been taken in 2011 we wouldn't be having these discussions today and realignment for the SEC and ACC would have been over.

I still think that kind of a deal could be revisited but it would require sobriety at Chapel Hill and they are still too drunk with their perceived power to see the consequences of their decisions.

IMO the ACC needs to consider offering 6 schools from the Big 12. You need to offer Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State. You need to let N.C. State and Virginia Tech go to the SEC who could pick up T.C.U. and West Virginia to complete the transaction.

The resultant ACC would look like this:

Boston College, Duke, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech.

The resultant SEC would look like this:

Kentucky, N.C. State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M, T.C.U.

That's 8 votes to dissolve the Big 12. Texas and Oklahoma play the majority of their games against division foes which comprise 2 to 3 of their home schedule so if they play 2 schools each from the other two divisions a year they rotate through all of the schools every three years play 9 conference games and still have 3 OOC games to play traditional foes of rivals from another conference. Outside of traditional road trips within the present Big 12 they only have two road games a year against the East Coast.

This move closes the gap with the Big 10 significantly and jumps you over the PAC by a wider margin. It increases your ration of states to duplications and states to privates.

Notre Dame remains an independent. And should they need to join in full there will always be Connecticut, Cincinnati, South Florida and Central Florida and Temple to choose from.

P.S. If the Heels holler to much about their division then just swap them with Louisville.