(11-19-2016 11:06 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-19-2016 09:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-19-2016 05:40 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-19-2016 09:41 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-19-2016 08:30 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I don't see 15 due to local politics.

As for the G5s, I'm sure the networks don't really want to pay for them, but things could be so much simpler if they would bite the bullet in that regard.

Let's think of schools like Vandy or Wake or Washington State...I'm sure the networks don't like paying for them either, but the fight to force them out just wouldn't be worth the effort. The same could be true for the Big 12. Several of those schools aren't worth big money, but how much trouble do they have to go through to put them on the outside looking in?

You've kind of made my point. There is no trouble with regards to the parsing of the Big 12 if you merely wait for the GOR to expire. Then those 10 schools become product for the free market. If another conference and their network wants them they are in. If not they are out. There really isn't a very sticky wicket legally at that point. Sure they could file some suits, but the likelihood of handling a strong legal position at that point is much much lower.

As for the Vandy's, Northwestern's, Duke's and Wake's of the world the increased spending on college athletics will eventually make them put up or leave. Vandy is currently planning to put up. Duke has made that decision as well. Wake might? Northwestern I don't know about. They seem to be competing just fine and it seems they do have the commitment. Anyway Raleigh / Durham, Nashville, and Chicago are all far more attractive markets to the networks than Winston / Salem. But we'll see.

If the GOR ends first then, yeah, all bets are off, but I was predicating our scenario on some sort of agreement beforehand. Otherwise, I don't see schools like Baylor getting in.

I also look at it like this. The only members of the old Big East that aren't in a Power league right now are UConn and Cincinnati. UConn may have a decent chance at the B1G at that. Point being, even though the arrangement has changed, pretty much all the same schools have gotten in on the party. Even Rutgers, a mostly insignificant athletic brand, has gained access to one of the wealthier leagues.

Especially if local politics play a role then just parking all or at least most of the Big 12 in other leagues is the path of least resistance. The networks can get the thing over with, get fans used to a new order, and start focusing on growing the brand rather than altering the brands every few years.

If the networks are going to get it over with it will happen at the end of this season. If not it will be at least 6 years before anything happens because of the GOR and its penalties and prohibitions. So we'll see. I have no problem with 15, 16, or 18. I just think if it was going to be 16 or 18 we'd already be there.

You're probably right.

My only hesitance in completely accepting that would be the idea that OU and UT might have been legitimately interested in preserving the Big 12 until recently. Don't know how likely that is, but I think it's possible.

Being that they've abandoned trying to preserve the league for the long term, maybe now we can get something done.

If Texas and Oklahoma had really wanted to keep the Big 12 together they would have added Louisville with West Virginia and B.Y.U. with T.C.U. in 2012.

What Texas and Oklahoma wanted to do was stay together until the fate of the ACC was decided or until they could extort the best possible offer. They didn't want to lose control of the vote to those who were afraid of being left behind. So their plan was to stick at 10 understanding that Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma would vote against expansion and that just one of Texas Tech or Oklahoma State would be all it would take to control any future expansion vote. Actually since it requires 3/4's of the members to vote to accept just the three of them could have controlled the vote, but Texas and Oklahoma had insurance with their two fellow state schools.

So I never believed they wanted to expand and said so back in 2012. I had a rep bet with a couple of Big 12'ers over that very issue. Neither of them are here much anymore so I doubt I ever collect.