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If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #1062
RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
(02-11-2016 01:37 PM)BaylorFerg Wrote:  
(02-10-2016 03:30 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(02-09-2016 12:31 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 12:12 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  It's possible the Big 12 is waiting on potential ACC targets, but if the SEC and Big Ten split the ACC up with 4 or more each then the Big 12 will be limited in its growth opportunities. Mostly because the ACC targets after 8-10 have been taken are pretty paltry. If there were that many great targets then an ACC Network would be a no-brainer. I think the only real shot the Big 12 has is if the other leagues aren't willing to go beyond 16.

My opinion has been that both the ACC and the Big 12 will fail. There are too few good products in the Big 12 and the ACC has a host of issues. I think it would be hard for them to fail at the same time, but that's assuming the Big 12 GOR is much tougher. Obviously, there's debate about that.

My opinion, as according Mr. SEC, was that the SEC will not be the ones to breakup the ACC. That'll be the B1G when they grab four AAU ACC schools citing that the GOR is void due to no ACCN. Now assuming the B1G grabs UVA, UNC, Duke and GT, the only "valuable" schools to other conferences would be FSU, Clemson, VT, Louisville, NC State and Miami. Combine those six with the B12 and you have a good conference. Now, if the SEC takes two of those six, the B12 + ACC leftovers works, but if SEC takes 4, then there's not much for the B12 to add.

That's where I think the SEC might have some room to negotiate with ESPN. Now if ESPN only wants the SEC to expand to 16, then the SEC should get who they want; if it's OU and FSU or VT and NC State. Worse case for the B12 could be the SEC grabbing markets (VT and NC State) and content (FSU and Clemson); of course ESPN wouldn't be totally happy with those payouts if ESPN wants to keep the SEC at or under 16 teams. I could see OU/VT or OU/FSU being the end game to get to 16.

I think you're probably right that the SEC wouldn't break up the ACC. I'm not sure there are very many current ACC schools that would bolt for the B1G though. The B1G's targets are limited and I think the core ACC schools would rather stay in the conference until it's clear that it is doomed.

My question would be what happens if the ACCN is definitely a no-go? Would ESPN then do some damage control and place a few ACC schools in the SEC to maintain the content? Would ESPN rather try to ride it out with the current ACC structure(as most of those schools would probably rather stick together and the only ones not so attached would cost more if they were moved to the SEC)?

I personally love the idea of taking 6 Southern schools from the ACC...

West: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss
South: Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Florida State
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Clemson, NC State
North: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Louisville, Virginia Tech

Play 4 division games, 1 permanent rival from each of the other 3 divisions, 1 rotating match-up from each of the other 3 divisions. That's a total of 10 conference games. 5 home and 5 away. Play everyone at least once every 4 years.

Would ESPN go for that? I'm not sure. There could be an upside to it though that might actually save the networks some money.

The ACC could rebuild and stay together...take Cincinnati and UConn.

Miami, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Syracuse, UConn, Boston College, and Notre Dame as an affiliate.

The positive side of this for ESPN is they get a really strong basketball league of schools that would rather associate with one another for a bargain basement price in all likelihood. They could stuff the football schools in another league and maximize the value of the SEC.

No real growth opportunities for the Big 12 here. Perhaps they stay together in the long run or more likely the top brands find new homes. The major programs could all move to the PAC.

Let's say the PAC takes Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Iowa State. ESPN could buy up the PAC Networks and make it profitable in the era of streaming by including good brands from the Central Time Zone. Four more schools get dropped though from the status of Power revenue. The PAC's revenue is still split between FOX and ESPN so no one really incurs new costs. ESPN could actually make a little extra from the PACN.

North: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford
South: UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
East: Texas Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State

The B1G stays put because the networks don't really gain anything from pushing content their way. I understand JRs concept of putting basketball brands in the B1G and maximizing that revenue stream, but basketball just doesn't generate the profits that football does, thus the ACC's current woes.

We essentially have a Power 4, but a more cost efficient alignment that doesn't break the bank for any network.

What is your deal with Baylor? You leave them out of almost every scenario you post. Do you think that if your scenario played out with the top teams of the Big 12 going to the PAC and the ACC gets poached before pulling in Cincy and UConn, that they would just leave KState, TCU and Baylor sitting there and relegate them to a non-power conference? Even if Baylor, TCU and KSU got left out of the big 3 in your scenario, adding them to the remaining ACC would give them some football credibility and added basketball content that the networks would pay for and would guarantee that the ACC stays a power conference. Beyond that it would give them two teams in Texas and arguably the two hottest football programs in the state. On top of that they get access to the coveted DFW market.

You can't tell me that as little respect that women's basketball gets, that conference games between UConn, Baylor, and Notre Dame wouldn't draw massive interest from the networks. Those teams regularly make the Elite 8 and many times the Final Four. UConn, Baylor and Notre Dame are all currently ranked in the Top 4 and Miami is ranked in the Top 20 as well.

I hate to tell you, but women's basketball basically means nothing. It's not a revenue sport and even if it were it would be no higher on the list that 3rd most influential. Men's basketball is only marginally influential because football generates far more money than anything else. That's not my opinion, that's just a fact.

I have nothing in the world against Baylor, but you have to be realistic. Baylor is not a media powerhouse. It's great for them that football and basketball have been on the uptick for a few years now, but that doesn't guarantee anything. Networks want viewers. That's how they make money. They have no loyalty to a decent football club. Boise State has had a pretty darn good program for more than a decade now and they are still on the outside looking in.

This is how you get viewers when it comes to college sports...

1) Massive fan base due to alumni and large numbers of casual fans that identify with your school. Baylor doesn't have that.

2) Tradition of winning. Baylor doesn't have that either. A few years of hot play doesn't guarantee anything for the future whereas programs that have been doing it for decades can be reasonably expected to continue. Baylor, conversely, has been regarded as a bottom feeder for most of its existence.

3) A huge media market that can be capitalized upon due to local presence. Baylor doesn't really have that either. Think about Rutgers and NY/NJ. Rutgers doesn't really have a lot going for it, but no one else could reasonably claim the NY/NJ market so there you go. Baylor is close to Dallas, but DFW and most of TX is dominated by other programs.

Add to that the religious affiliation that Baylor takes seriously. I'm not faulting them at all for that. In fact, I think it's admirable, but most conferences won't agree. It's yet another strike against BU.

All I'm saying is that Baylor is behind the 8 ball if the Big 12 dissolves. There's a chance you could end up in the SEC I suppose, but I just don't know. I suppose it's also possible UT could step in and demand your inclusion in the ACC or PAC, but I just don't know.

I don't think the ACC would take Baylor or TCU or Kansas State. I'm not sure they would take anyone from that region because that league is peculiar in their dealings. That's not a knock against BU, that's just how the ACC is.

I think Baylor's best chance is for the Big 12 to stay together.
02-11-2016 04:21 PM
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Messages In This Thread
SEC Expansion - vandiver49 - 10-11-2013, 08:43 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand - 10thMountain - 05-02-2014, 02:49 PM
RE: B12 - jhawkmvp - 05-02-2014, 11:00 PM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 11-04-2014, 02:34 AM
schools making profits - jhawkmvp - 11-12-2014, 12:32 AM
RE: expansion - oliveandblue - 12-03-2014, 12:41 AM
My wild guess - jhawkmvp - 12-09-2014, 12:39 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 12-25-2014, 11:04 PM
RE: If the SEC did expand... - Transic_nyc - 09-19-2015, 01:41 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why? - AllTideUp - 02-11-2016 04:21 PM
RE - Transic_nyc - 10-21-2017, 03:15 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 10-21-2017, 06:35 PM
RE: ? - Transic_nyc - 10-22-2017, 01:02 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand... - Transic_nyc - 03-05-2018, 11:46 AM
RE: If ... - Transic_nyc - 12-18-2020, 01:45 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 01-26-2021, 10:59 AM
RE: If - Transic_nyc - 01-27-2021, 12:58 AM
RE: If - Transic_nyc - 03-07-2021, 02:25 PM
RE: If ... - Transic_nyc - 03-09-2021, 06:34 AM



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