(12-16-2015 02:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 11:50 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 09:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Yeah, most of my posts are for my own entertainment anyway.

I think Oklahoma is headed our way. I've just about talked myself into thinking Texas is coming with them. Looking at things from UT's perspective, there really isn't a better option if the Big 12 falls apart and they aren't going to stick around while OU is bailing.

Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC
Kansas and UConn to the B1G
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston to the PAC

Perhaps another round happens later if the ACC doesn't get their network. Question though, is the ACC GOR in any way dependent on them getting a network? Does anyone really think the ACC will get a network at this point? I have my doubts, but I'm having a hard time believing that ESPN is going to sell off its spare parts right now.

there was a recent report from the GT AD that ESPN asked to delay the ACCN launch for a 2 years to make sure everything was done the right way and they didn't lose money out of the gate. there wasn't much detail on what needed to be done, but one would think it would pertain to buying rights back (something the sec did prior to launching their network), negotiation for carriage fees, etc. the spin on that report ranged from "the sky is falling" from those that want the acc to dissolve to unicorns and fairies from the some of the more avid acc kool aid drinkers. the truth probably lies somewhere in between. a simple reading of the report would indicate that the two parties have indeed decided to pursue a channel. that would be consistent with previous public statements from acc ADs that the channel would be viable and a good revenue source. it is also possible that ESPN is stonewalling and has no intention of starting a ACCN. that would make their request for a delay blatantly dishonest. maybe I'm not cynical enough, but blatant dishonest negotiations doesn't seem plausible.

my theory is that ESPN wants the acc to remain intact so they can have the best football and basketball content for year round ratings. having defections would drastically degrade the basketball product. in order for that to happen, ESPN will have to keep the acc competitive in revenue, whether that be with a channel or with other revenue sources. if not, there will be defections. it's that simple. in financial terms, we now have the P2 - SEC and B1G. the other 3 will probably never match those 2 in revenue and are just trying to remain competitive.

Ren. ESPN can't afford to start a network for the ACC without full inclusion of Notre Dame. Outside of Carolina and Duke in hoops and perhaps F.S.U. in football, there are no national brands to carry the conference nationally. The conference is too private heavy and privates tend to have small fan bases.

The way I read the stall is this, ESPN wants to keep pressure on N.D. and perhaps even Texas. Add those two and your network goes national. It's that simple. If not then ESPN uses that time to work with the SEC on a a merger of core ACC properties and/or Texas to keep the product they want under the highest % of obligation to them.

What they won't do is lose their best hoops programs to the Big 10 and FOX. They know they will eventually have to up the pay for Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Syracuse.

Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, N.C. State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Louisville aren't that valuable to them as individual pieces.

Send N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Louisville, and B.C. to the Big 12 and what you have is a better showcase for Texas and Oklahoma and West Virginia finally makes some sense. Send Virginia Tech and Syracuse to the Big 10 for contract rights. Delany gets his Eastward expansion and the markets he wants.

Send Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State to the SEC and multiply your investment in those schools and those of the SEC many times over. Then the question becomes who does N.D. want to be a part of? The Big 10? Or, perhaps a much broader and more academically sound SEC? I'm betting N.D. would opt for Southern recruiting and the Academic alliance, lacrosse, and Olympic sports they share with Duke, UNC, & UVa.

It sounds wild I know, but it is about multiplying brand value, and keeping profits in house for the Mouse.

Now ESPN has in one 20 school conference everything it could want without having to have a startup of a network, just the expansion of an existing successful one.

Add to that the fact that the SEC is in partnership with the Big 12 for postseason play already and ESPN via a converted LHN would now have majority interest in the two most productive sports regions and over half of the present P4 product, Including all but 4 of the top 15 money makers.

Notre Dame will just rejoin the AAC or similar league, and stay indy in football. They are the white whale and appear to have a shot at getting into the CFP without a conference championship. If anything, their schedule would have greater flexibility without 4 or 5 ACC required games to play.