(12-27-2014 01:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas, and possibly Iowa State will all find homes for either brand or market status, or academics. That means on their content value, their ability to provide viewers, or their school standing. I do think it likely that Texas Tech also finds a home. Kansas State will have a tough time. If T.C.U. winds up anywhere it will be the PAC but only with Texas Tech. Baylor won't get into the PAC, will not be wanted by the Big 10, and only finds a home in the SEC should the SEC expand by 4 out of the Big 12 which isn't likely, or if the SEC gets shut out of Oklahoma Schools which also isn't likely, or should West Virginia be taken by the ACC and Kansas and Oklahoma aren't available.

I still think the PAC has one last move to make, and that is offering Texas, T.C.U., Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Unless Texas is set on taking the ND-type deal with the ACC, they might consider it as the better offer.

Quote:I don't think we are headed to more than 64 any more. I once believed 72 would be the final number. Now I'm thinking more like 60. We'll see.

If Texas goes to the ACC as an independent nobody else goes with them. They'll have 7 games to schedule their Texas buddies and OU. The sticking point on that will be minor sports travel.

North Carolina doesn't want to do what it takes to land 3 Big 12 schools and form a Western Division. Remember Louisville could easily slip into a Western division with Texas, a Texas private, and an Oklahoma or Kansas school and that would work if N.D. came all in. That would likely require them to make room for the Western division by shedding the two programs that were originally considered for this deal. In that event the SEC could land Va Tech and N.C. State, or N.C. State and an Oklahoma School while the Big 10 landed Virginia Tech and Kansas, or some other arrangement of similar compromise. When it was first presented as a concept the idea was that the advantages for the ACC would prove irresistible. Carolina is apparently the obstacle. This is why the demise of the Big 12 may be a premature prediction. If ESPN can't enhance the market value of the ACC with such additions and monetize it by converting the LHN into an ACCN then Delany's desire for more Eastern properties may not be dead quite yet and neither is the idea of a 3 x 20. Let ESPN gain a share of the PACN, a long duration contract for Big 10 T1 content, and utilize the markets to enhance their investment and potential income from the SECN and it could be quite advantageous to move to just a P3 setup. Then your final four every year are the three champs and the best at large school. And remember H1 if the SEC and Big 10 take 6 each of the ACC that meets requirements for dissolution. If the PAC takes 8 of the Big 12 it does the same.

I find that assertion interesting. First, I would have thought that U.N.C.'s first choice would always be a viable ACC. Maybe I'm wrong but it doesn't make sense from the standpoint of wanting to be in a conference that they would better identify themselves with. Even with a bunch of schools in the plains they still would continue to play Duke, State, Wake and Virginia, whereas in the case of a brokered ACC they'd lose the ability to play Clemson, GT, Wake, Virginia Tech and Miami regularly.

Quote:The SEC in that scenario likely picks up: Miami, Georgia Tech, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, and Clemson. Georgia Tech gives us academics and an old rival back for many of our schools. Florida State and Clemson are big content additions. Virginia Tech and N.C. State are market adds, and Miami gives us good academics and a presence in South Florida.

The Big 10 gets: Syracuse, Notre Dame (nowhere else for them to go), B.C. (big market), Virginia, Duke and North Carolina. All of these while not all AAU are very high in academics and the markets are there that Delany wanted.

The PAC gets: Texas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech along with Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. So three AAU schools, 4 states, 8 Central Time Zone venues, and three national brands.

Baylor, West Virginia, Pitt, Louisville, and Wake Forest are out unless one conference expands to 24 and then only Wake is out and we are back to 64..

I wouldn't mind that scenario, as I would get to see more games played in the Eastern Time Zone. It's the issue of the fans accepting such a radical change, as H1 has mentioned.

As for the potential left-behinds, I see the basis for forming two viable "tweener" conferences. Say Baylor gets together with Houston, Memphis, plus Louisville, Cincinnati, SMU or Rice, West Virginia, Pitt, Temple, UCONN, either Navy, Army or both, maybe include BYU and Colorado State in the mix, ECU, Old Dominion, UCF and USF. Could Air Force, Army and Navy be part of this mix?

SMU, Rice, Tulane, Wake Forest, Air Force, Tulsa, Navy, Army

Houston, Baylor, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia, UCF, USF, East Carolina, Pitt, BYU, Connecticut, Temple, Old Dominion

Lobby for being included in the mix for the at-large spot. That would ease the pain of being left out of a P3. They would have the support of the MWC, C-USA, MAC and what's left of the Sun Belt.