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If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
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XLance Offline
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RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
(11-12-2014 10:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-12-2014 09:55 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(11-12-2014 09:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-12-2014 08:51 PM)CintiFan Wrote:  jhawk, I think your arguments actually support my scenario more than yours although I agree with much of what you say.

For starters, let's agree on the obvious: the SEC, BIG and PAC are survivors under any scenario and Big 12 and ACC are the potentially unstable conferences.

The Big 12 is more unstable because a single member, Texas, has the power to decide whether the conference survives or dies. If Texas decides to leave, the conference disbands. Two other schools, Oklahoma and Kansas, have the power to force Texas' hand because if they decide to leave, Texas alone may not have the ability to keep the conference intact because, at this point, there are not enough quality replacements for OK and KU. Yes, there are other good schools in the Big 12, but if Texas leaves, or OK & KU leave the conference doesn't have enough geographic diversity or national name brands to remain viable. In that sense, I agree with you that OK is a key player in the Big 12's future survival.

In contrast, no single member can kill the ACC nor does any small group of teams have the ability decimate the conference. FSU's departure would hurt but the conference would survive. Even a UVA/UNC move to the BIG or SEC would not kill the ACC. It has a much broader geographic reach, with teams like Syracuse, Pitt, South Carolina and Miami, who would still remain and that geographic breadth, with fairly good teams, would still garner a fairly nice TV contract, just not SEC/BIG size.

All of this will be moot, of course, when ND, Texas and FSU announce the formation of a new conference.

South Carolina is an SEC school. Look, 85% of the money generated by the conference comes from football. Did you know that the top money makers in the ACC are the following: Florida State, North Carolina, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Duke and N.C. State? Did you know the top attendance leaders in football are: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State and that the rest annually fall below 50,000? Should there be an exodus of football first schools it is not inconceivable that the football contract of the ACC would fall by 30 to 50% depending upon whether or not such a move would also cause the Irish to seek another haven.

Economic disparity is greatest for the ACC. Potential to close the disparity gap is the lowest for the next 6 years in the ACC. It remains to be seen what sanctions will be levied upon U.N.C., but should they receive post season bans in basketball, Syracuse (presently under investigation) receive post season bans in basketball, and Florida State (being investigated on title IX violations) receive post season bans in football and baseball the non performance of those top schools in those respective sports could violate the GOR. If Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Florida State, and Clemson leave (and Georgia Tech would take that opportunity as well and quite possibly Miami) then you don't have enough earning potential left for the rest to stay viable, especially if Syracuse and U.N.C. remain suspended from tourney action. Duke would become the sole standard bearer.

I'm sorry but you assessment of what happens to the ACC with the loss of football first schools is grossly optimistic.

There is much yet to be seen unveiled in the ACC's future. Hence, Texas and OU wait. And it is much more profitable to build a football conference around Texas and Oklahoma than it is to build one around North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia.

JR, FYI during Butch Davis' tenure as head football coach Carolina averaged 5,000 more fans per game than State has capacity.
The data I was drawing on is only about 2 years old now (2012 season). So I looked up the reported numbers for 2013:
Clemson: 82,048
Florida State: 75,421
Virginia Tech: 63,999
Miami: 53,837 (the Florida game at the pro stadium drew 76,000 plus which bumped their average considerably)
N.C. State: 53,178
North Carolina: 51,500 (congratulations you broke 50,000 but still finished behind N.C. State)

oops! my bad, the wuffies drew better than my records indicated.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/35...ce-numbers

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By ESPN.com staff | ESPN.com
2023COMMENTS238EMAILPRINT
The NCAA this month released its attendance report for the 2011 season, and Sports Business Journal recently released three-year averages for each conference. It should come as no surprise that Clemson, Florida State and Virginia Tech were the league leaders, in that order. Overall, according to the NCAA's numbers, here's how the ACC stacked up in 2011 compared to the rest of the country's accumulated attendance (of course you have to take into account stadium size, and the difference in number of home games):

No. 15 Clemson (547,635)
No. 16 Florida State (544,893)
No. 28 Virginia Tech (397,398)
No. 32 NC State (394,008)
No. 33 North Carolina (392,000)
No. 39 Miami (340,576)
No. 41 Georgia Tech (337,622)
No. 43 Virginia (335,582)
No. 51 Maryland (296,484)
No. 65 Wake Forest (223,769)
No. 68 Boston College (214,255)
No. 79 Duke (170,748)

Because of the differences in stadium size and number of home games, though, it's probably more beneficial to measure within the league, and look at whether attendance has increased or fallen off at each respective program. The Sports Business Journal's three-year snapshot helps do that:

Clemson
2011 78,234
2010 77,469
2009 75,793
Florida State
2011 77,842
2010 71,270
2009 74,345
Virginia Tech
2011 66,233
2010 66,233
2009 66,233
NC State
2011 56,287
2010 56,877
2009 56,422
North Carolina
2011 56,000
2010 58,250
2009 56,607
Miami
2011 48,654
2010 52,575
2009 47,551
Georgia Tech
2011 48,232
2010 48,232
2009 51,584
Virginia
2011 47,940
2010 45,459
2009 47,986
Maryland
2011 42,355
2010 39,168
2009 44,452
Boston College
2011 35,709
2010 38,369
2009 35,716
Wake Forest
2011 31,967
2010 30,474
2009 31,791
Duke
2011 24,393
2010 28,750
2009 26,314
11-13-2014 08:26 AM
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Messages In This Thread
SEC Expansion - vandiver49 - 10-11-2013, 08:43 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand - 10thMountain - 05-02-2014, 02:49 PM
RE: B12 - jhawkmvp - 05-02-2014, 11:00 PM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 11-04-2014, 02:34 AM
schools making profits - jhawkmvp - 11-12-2014, 12:32 AM
RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why? - XLance - 11-13-2014 08:26 AM
RE: expansion - oliveandblue - 12-03-2014, 12:41 AM
My wild guess - jhawkmvp - 12-09-2014, 12:39 AM
RE: - Transic_nyc - 12-25-2014, 11:04 PM
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