The P5 and Their Likelihood to Take More Schools and Who They Should Consider and Why
Taken in the order of their contract renewals with my strong suggestion that the ACC should make a move as soon as is possible, especially since this is their look in year.
1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.
My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia
Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.
Those 4 open up two large states for the ACC and the ACCN (Ohio and Texas) and 2 new states in Louisiana and West Virginia.
Such a move would include 3 schools which would improve ACC attendance. And, it is a preemptive move which likely takes ACC schools off the menu of the SEC and B1G. Just the attempt would either strengthen ESPN's commitment, or make them tip their hand with regard to the ACC.
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
This yields some happy and competitive groupings and gives North Carolina and Virginia Schools even more with which to be contented.
This move strengthens the ACC's chances of landing the other half of the Sugar Bowl which will then be played in an ACC city. It distances the ACC from the B12.
2. Big Ten: Likelihood to make additions / 50% if the ACC doesn't add. Much less if they do add. If the ACC adds the B1G is limited to Kansas and Iowa State, and only if they wanted to leave the SEC maybe Missouri.
Best Options: Notre Dame (major value add and football blueblood) and Kansas (AAU and the alleged birthplace of basketball).
An eighteen member ACC is better equipped to weather the loss of N.D.
If Notre Dame is a no, and the ACC has expanded, the Big Ten isn't likely to add at all.
3. The PAC 12: Likelihood to make additions / 30% if they need more inventory, a new time zone to market, and new markets for the PACN. I'd rate chances higher if sports were a major emphasis but past history says additions are not as likely.
If they did opt to expand their best prospects to 16 would be Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State and T.C.U. Why? Iowa State and Kansas are AAU and Iowa State is competitive and Kansas is much needed for hoops. Oklahoma State now an R1 Carnegie school is more acceptable than in the past and is the best Athletic Department of any of the remaining 8. Plus Oklahoma State and T.C.U. deliver decent numbers in DFW and Oklahoma. 16 is only practical in a pod system.
Whether the PAC 12 adds or doesn't is, in my opinion, wholly independent of what other conferences do.
4. The New Big 12: Likelihood to make additions / 50% unless the Big 10 raids the ACC's leaders. Then the likelihood goes way up.
Sorry, but they have taken their best 4 options from the AAC and adding 2 more doesn't really add.
But should the ACC not expand, and should a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue permit the Big 10 to take 2 of, or 4 of, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, then the SEC would be pushed to take some as well.
in that reality the B12 should absolutely go after Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt in the North and Miami, N.C. State, and Clemson & Florida State if available. The added markets and branding would boost them far more than anymore AAC schools.
5. The SEC: Likelihood to make additions: 0% unless the B1G moves to 18 out of the ACC. If the B1G added Notre Dame and Kansas to 16 the SEC would congratulate Kansas, Notre Dame and the Big Ten and remain quite happy with their own 16.
If the Big Ten moves to 18 out of the ACC the SEC likely takes Virginia Tech and would make a play for UNC. Perhaps they consider Duke and North Carolina as a pair. I don't think a move to 18 by the B1G would result in the SEC adding 4 to 20.
That would leave Clemson and FSU for the B12.
The SEC won't breach the ACC unless somebody else has already and the only one capable of it is the Big 10.
The only potential scenario I see for the SEC going after ACC schools might happen if Missouri and Kansas moved to the B1G. That would leave a slot with which to entice Duke, Virginia and North Carolina as a threesome. I find the likelihood of this to be remote. ESPN would likely be amenable however because the ACC without them would be much more flexible where new members would be concerned.
These are my thoughts about coming realignment options and potentialities.
If you respond don't say "this will never happen." Some of you said that about Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Rather state how you see it playing out and most importantly why you believe it.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2021 08:51 PM by JRsec.)
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The P5 and Their Likelihood to Take More Schools and Who They Should Consider and Why
