First the Virus:

1. It has already cut into earnings which heretofore were year upon year for budgetary reasons and non profit status. That means these are serious shortfalls that will time a long time to make up. So virtually everyone in any division of college athletics is currently under a cash flow impediment. For some it will be ruinous.

2. The Virus is poised to limit attendance further diminishing annual budgets from the loss of donations for tickets, the actual ticket purchases, and concessions and souvenirs.

3. The online experience may prove transforming, especially for undergraduate work the first two years where basic studies requirements are met. This is a topic, not sports related, that should be thoroughly considered for how it is going to change the future of Universities and how it is going to lessen the need for the number of them we presently have.

Demographics:

1. We are experiencing a downturn in the birth rate the nadir of which will be upon us within 5 years. Declining enrollment will be the result forcing ever more competition for enrollment.

2. More young people see the cost of education to exceed the ROI for it in terms of gainful employment. Trades are offering a better ROI so enrollment is down for that reason as well.

Both of these will impact realignment as large state schools will seek branding and recognition enhancement and sports

Travel Costs Will Have to Come Down:

1. Even for major universities when donations and ticket revenue are suppressed it will be necessary to suppress as much of the overhead as is practical. For minor sports that means more regionality.

2. Air travel is expensive compared to bus. Another reason for regionality.

Media Revenue:

1. Media Revenue is the only saving grace that can spare many programs very tough choices about the sports they offer and the sizes of their athletic departments. The stress in this area is going to become a massive for realignment and on an unprecedented scale.

2. This will exacerbate the distinction between the haves and have not conferences and inevitably lead to further consolidation .

3. This can occur if the Networks desire to obtain a higher quality of weekly games to broadcast. This means consolidation and exclusivity of play within a defined grouping. This will not be, and cannot be, an expansion of upper tier membership, but a reduction of it. The reason is simple. Networks are not going to pay the premium unless the volume of games they purchase improve the ratings.

That said I look for an upper tier of possibly 54 to 60 schools in no more than 3 conferences. Reducing conferences reduces overhead, increases leverage, and provides for ease of scheduling more regional groupings set up as divisions.

For this reason I think the merger of the PAC and Big 12 makes sound business sense and that the absorption of the ACC into the Big 10 and SEC does as well.

If you are looking at 3 conferences of 20 then maybe these are the moves that would be likely:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Virginia to the Big 10 from the ACC. Iowa State to the Big 10 from the Big 12. Missouri to the Big 10 from the SEC.

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech to the SEC from the ACC. West Virginia from the Big 12 to the SEC.

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech to merge with the existing PAC.

Out and to the Big East: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

But he culling may be more extensive and 54 could prove more profitable:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia to the Big 10.

Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech to the SEC.

The PAC and Big 12 use the expiration of both GOR's to reform this way:

From the PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Utah, Washington.

From the Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech.

West Virginia returns to the Big East. Baylor moves to the AAC.
Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest apply to the Big East.

The Big East is in the upper tier for Basketball and all other sports. Their football is not included and plays in a division against the AAC.