(02-26-2020 12:32 PM)Rocco Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 10:37 AM)Zorch Wrote:  

(02-25-2020 07:55 PM)Rocco Wrote:  The point of "luck" isn't that a team doesn't deserve its wins, but that performance in close games is not a repeatable skill. There's no hidden skill or secret sauce.

I disagree with this premise that performance in close games is not a repeatable skill. We already know that Nathan Knight won a close game against NE and then he repeated that effort just weeks later.

Marcus Thornton hit a game winning 3 to beat Drexel. He missed the game winner that same season against Delaware. The results were independent of one another.

Quote:Someone said "winning begets winning". Another way to say that is "success builds confidence". Teams that have done it know that they can do it again, and that very confidence might be the factor that indeed does enable them to do it again. Likewise, failure begets failure. Look at all the close games that NE has lost this year. You don't think that maybe those failures are "in their head" just a little bit? Having failed so often, the next time they are in that position it will be in the back (or front) of their minds that "oh no, here we go again", and thus it makes it so.

The problem with cliches is they tend to not hold up to actual analysis. It's trickier with college sports because rosters turn over a lot, but in pro sports performance in close games varies a lot year-to-year. It's pretty common to see a team win a ton of close games one year then struggle in those spots the next year and vice versa.

As for Northeastern, last year they were 3-5 in games decided by 5 points- not great, not terrible. They're not as good this year, so games they won comfortably last year are coming down to the wire. They also had a CAA first team player, so if it truly were down to having a great player, you'd think that number would have been higher. (And he hit at least one buzzer beater that I know of without looking.) Hofstra last year (with JWF, the CAA POY) was 7-4 in 5 point games, which is good but not that crazy when you consider they were 22-7 overall.

Quote:This concept of "repeatability" is why, the next time W&M is in a last-second game-deciding situation, I would prefer that Nathan Knight get the ball and not << fill in name of W&M bench-warmer >>.

You want the best player on the team taking that shot. Of course. That's not because of some magical clutch ability necessarily, but because the best player is more likely to make the shot than a nobody.

Re the first segment above: yes, every shot is independent of every other shot -- but that doesn't mean that the results are not repeatable. That is true even if the second shot is missed (like your Thornton example; that is, based on experience that year he was the best candidate to take that second shot (although based on openness, Rusthoven was the best candidate)). Trying to repeat that result through practice is how you can move the needle closer to the success line. Repeatability (leading to muscle memory) is also why players (should) practice so many free throws.

Not sure what your point was in the second segment above. Comparing NE this year to NE last year is basically meaningless (same reason why I said Nate the Junior is not the same player as Nate the Senior). Also, there is a reason that certain thoughts become cliches -- because over eons, millenia, decades, whatever timeframe you want to use, the common perception is that they are true more often than not. Disregarding a cliche just because it is a cliche makes no more sense that giving it extra weight because it is a cliche. Anyway, they were included more for amusement.

Re the last segment above: all things being equal, of course you want the best player taking the last shot. But that alone is not why I mentioned Knight; rather it was because he has already "done it" twice this season. Bryce Barnes has also done it once. If it had been Barnes who had done it two more times against NE (for a total of three) then I would be saying that Barnes would be a great choice to take that last shot (even though Knight is clearly the best player). It is just gravy for the Tribe that the best player also has the most experience (repeatability) this year.