(02-07-2020 03:04 PM)e-parade Wrote:  Also "A-10 continues to fade" is a bit much.

But it's stated as a premise, not as a prediction. As a premise it's a BIT unrealistic, but not as bad as claiming that "probably" it will happen over the next decade.

I don't think it's likely that the A-10 is on a trajectory to decline to the level of the current MAC. Certainly not quickly, since if there is a "fade", it's from a regular multiple-at-large-bid conference to a conference with regular at-large bids in the Tourney.

That is not one step above the MAC, it's two, since the MAC would have to step up to have regular at-large bids to the NIT first, before it stepped up to having a regular series of at-large bids.

The A-10 dropping those two steps in a single decade is a bit much. If parity is going to happen in a mere 10 years, not only would the A-10 have to "continue to fade", but the MAC would have to lift its game as well ... and there is no strong evidence of that happening (though as a Kent State fan, it would surely be nice if it did).

Take on top of that these trends are based on very few actual observations over time. It could just as easily be that the A-10 has had a bit of bad luck and when things regress to the mean, they return to having regular multiple at-large bids.