(01-21-2020 09:47 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(01-21-2020 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 09:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If Cincy ever has even a poor man's Big Ten-like team, it will dominate the AAC, which is not known for its strong defenses. I do like what L. Fickell is doing with the Bearcats.

Not so sure. Usually, in bowl games, the SEC beat the B1G, their speedier style beats the more corn-fed bulkier style of the B1G. Not always, as Minnesota proved vs Auburn, but usually. So southern AAC teams that emulate a SEC/FSU/Clemson approach might have an advantage.

Of course, it boils down to athletes more than style. If Cincy can recruit close to B1G-level athletes and the southern AAC teams can't do the same then yes, Cincy will dominate.

Big 10 teams face two big disadvantages in bowl games versus SEC teams

First, bowl games are often de-facto home games for the SEC team. Home field advantage is worth between 2 to 5 points in CFB.

Second, Big 10 teams are built to succeed in cold weather. 3 yards and a cloud of dust has an advantage when it's 20 degrees out, but is at a disadvantage when it's 60 degrees out. Bowl games are usually closer to 60 degrees, so it's an advantage to the SEC. If bowl games were played in Soldier Field, the results would be very different.

Not many bowl games are 'de facto' home games for SEC teams. LSU playing in New Orleans? Sure. Florida playing anywhere in Florida? Sure. Georgia playing in Atlanta? Sure. But those are kind of rare. E.g., in 2018, the B1G and SEC played in four bowl games, none of which were within 300 miles of the SEC team. The SEC went 3-1 in them anyway. This year, 2019, it was the same thing - Alabama vs Michigan in Orlando, Tennessee vs Indiana in Jacksonville, and Minnesota vs Auburn in Tampa. Yes, the SEC team was closer to the bowl game than the B1G team, but they weren't close. Plus, travel means less for bowls because you have so much time to prepare.

As for weather, the results also might be different if bowl games were played in 90 degree heat as well, which many deep south teams must accustom to the first month of the season but B1G teams tend to avoid. LSU's first three home games this year were played in temperatures 92 and above. Sixty degrees is basically a nice neutral ground, comfortable for everyone.

Anyway, cold weather is overrated in college football, which is more of a summer sport than a winter sport. Yes, we all love when we turn on the TV in November and there is snow flying around the field, but those games are relatively rare. E.g., these were the temperatures in Ann Arbor for Michigan home games this year, and Michigan is more northerly than many B1G schools:

73
74
71
56
55
34
40

I would say that only two of those qualify as "cold weather", the two November games.