From an Overall Perspective...

The dam breaks open. After entering the weekend with no clinched AQs, we exit it with six conferences decided and four left to go. The number of quality teams who will be eligible for At-Large spots continues to rise – which means the Committee will have their work cut out for them. Right now, I count at least fifteen teams who will not win their conference AQ who have good enough resumes to be considered for an At-Large. Out of that, only North Dakota currently has less than 7 wins. (They only play 11 games this year, though.) Will the Committee choose to stack the field with “Power” conference teams (CAA, Big Sky, MVC) or spread the wealth a little bit? It might be hard to justify a 5th team from the MVC when there are good 2nd place teams in other conferences.

From a JMU Perspective...

The Dukes torched The Ticks, 48-6, to give them their tenth win in a row, the AQ, and the likely #2 Seed in the playoffs. All that is left to take care of is a lousy URI team and the Dukes will be able to relax, eat a lot of turkey, and find out who will come to Bridgeforth in December. With no real difference between the #1 Seed and #2 Seed, all is golden. (and purple)


By the Numbers (108 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/27 – 92
11/3 – 81
11/10 – 66
11/17 – 56

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/27 – 79
11/3 – 74
11/10 – 61
11/17 – 49

Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/27 – 12
11/3 – 21
11/10 – 33
11/17 – 34

Since this is a 12-game season...Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/27 – 3
11/3 – 8
11/10 – 16
11/17 – 22

Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky –
Big South – Monmouth
CAA – JMU
MVC – NDSU
NEC – CCSU
OVC –
Patriot –
Pioneer – San Diego
SoCon – Wofford
Southland –

CAA (9 Teams Alive)
JMU – 10 wins – clinched AQ
Villanova – 8 wins
Albany – 7 wins
Towson – 7 wins
Maine – 6 wins
Stony Brook (0)
UNH (0)
Richmond (0)
Delaware (0)

Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)
Montana – 9 wins
Weber State – 8 wins
Montana State – 8 wins
Sacramento State – 7 wins
EWU (0)
UC Davis (0) – cannot win AQ

Big South (3 Teams Alive)
Monmouth – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Kennesaw State – 8 wins
Campbell (0)

Independents (1 Team Alive – No AQ)
North Dakota – 6 wins

MEAC (3 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T – 7 wins
Bethune-Cookman – 6 wins
SC State – 6 wins

MVC (6 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 11 wins – clinched AQ
SDSU – 8 wins
Illinois State – 8 wins
No. Iowa – 7 wins
SIU – 7 wins
Youngstown State (0)

NEC (5 Teams Alive)
CCSU – 10 wins – clinched AQ
Sacred Heart – 7 wins
Robert Morris – 6 wins
Duquesne (0)
StFU (0)

OVC (6 Teams Alive)
Austin Peay – 8 wins
SE Missouri State – 7 wins
Tenn.-Martin – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
EKU – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
Jacksonville State – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
Tenn. Tech (0) – cannot win AQ

Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)
Holy Cross – 6 wins
Lafayette

Pioneer League (4 Teams Alive)
San Diego – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Dayton – 7 wins
Davidson – 6 wins
Drake (0)

SoCon (5 Teams Alive)
Wofford – 7 wins – clinched AQ
Furman – 7 wins
Citadel – 6 wins
Chattanooga – 6 wins
Samford (0)

Southland (6 Teams Alive)
Central Ark – 8 wins – cannot win AQ
Nicholls State – 7 wins
SE Louisiana – 7 wins
McNeese State – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
Sam Houston State (0) – cannot win AQ
Incarnate Word (0) – cannot win AQ


Must Win Out to reach 6 wins:
Stony Brook
UNH
Richmond
Delaware
EWU
UC Davis
Campbell
Youngstown State
Duquesne
StFU
Tenn. Tech
Drake
Samford
Mercer
Sam Houston State
Incarnate Word

Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this past week)
North Alabama (transitioning to I-AA until 2022)
Merrimack (transitioning to I-AA until 2023)
FAMU (postseason ban for low APR)
W&M
Elon
URI
Northern Arizona
Idaho
Portland State
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Cal Poly
Southern Utah
Charleston Southern
Gardner-Webb
Hampton
Presbyterian
NC Central
Howard
Norfolk State
Morgan State
Delaware State
South Dakota
Indiana State
W. Illinois
Missouri State
Bryant
Wagner
LIU
Murray State
Tenn. State
EIU
Colgate
Georgetown
Fordham
Lehigh
Bucknell
Marist
Stetson
Morehead State
Butler
Valparaiso
Jacksonville
Mercer
VMI
ETSU
Western Carolina
Abilene Christian
Lamar
Houston Baptist
NW State
Stephen F. Austin

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
NDSU

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
LIU
Texas Southern

Conference Analysis

CAA – Since the AQ is wrapped up, the focus turns tot he At-Large possibilities. After losing three games in a row, Villanova has bounced back to win the last two weeks. They now have 8 overall wins and should win in the final week to get them to 9 wins. They should get an At-Large, but I don’t know if it will be good enough for a low Seed – that will depend on who else is in the running. They don’t have any great wins (although Towson is fine) and that loss to Stony Brook really doesn’t look good. Albany and UNH faced off this past weekend and it was Albany that came out on top. The other purple and gold team picked up their best win this season and now stands with 7 wins. Next week, they’ll try to lock in their At-Large spot when they play Stony Brook – a team whose season lost all momentum when they lost to the Dukes. UNH now looks to their season finale with rival Maine to try to salvage their playoff chances. Both of those teams have 5 losses, so the loser will definitely be eliminated while the winner has only a slight chance to get in. (Obviously, UNH has dropped out of the Committee’s top 10 with their losses over the past two weeks, but has it dropped them completely from their consideration?) Maine has now won four games in a row, but three of those games were to weak opponents. Towson now has 7 wins with no bad losses. They are now a bubble team and should be a lock if they beat Elon next weekend. Richmond, Stony Brook, and Delaware can make it to 6 wins, but they cannot finish with winning records – they all should be out.

Big Sky – Any hope that the Big Sky AQ would be decided quickly and easily went away when Montana beat Weber State and Sacramento beat Idaho. There is now a three-way tie at the top of the conference between Montana, Weber, and Sacramento (who are all 1-1 against each other) with two more teams (Montana State and EWU) one game behind. Montana plays Montana State, but the other three teams play teams outside of the AQ race. We could have anywhere from one team winning the AQ outright to a five-way tie, so there is no good way to go through all of the scenarios. (I will say that we’ll have the five-way tie if Montana State and EWU both win while the other three lose.) Montana, Montana State, Weber, and Sacramento all have very good chances at getting At-Large spots win or lose next week. I do not see EWU getting an At-Large, so they only have a shot if there is a tie-breaker miracle. There will likely be two Seeds coming from the Big Sky, but again, it will all depend on what happens in the final week.

Big South – Monmouth rolled over Campbell this past weekend to take the Big South AQ. The big question now is: Will Monmouth get a Seed? They will likely finish 10-2 on the season. Their losses are to Montana and I-A Western Michigan. They have beaten Albany and crushed both Campbell and Kennesaw (the #2 and #3 conference teams). I think there is a strong possibility that they could grab a #8 Seed. (I would say they are one of the top teams outside of the “Power” conferences – CAA, MVC, and Big Sky.) Kennesaw will look to get their 8th win against Gardner-Webb in the final week. Any chance of a Seed for them is gone, but an At-Large is almost certain with a win. Campbell is done.

Independents – North Dakota picked up their 6th win to make them playoff-eligible. They have beaten some good teams (Sam Houston, Montana State), but they do have one terrible loss (Idaho State). With them only playing 11 games this year, I think they need to get to 7-4 just to make up for that Idaho State loss. They will be a bubble team, but I could see ways for them to get an At-Large.

MEAC – To make the playoffs, a MEAC team cannot win the conference title (which would send them to the HBCU “bowl” game) and they have to have a very strong resume. This year, there is an extra hitch...the conference leader, FAMU, is ineligible for the HBCU “bowl” this year due to low APR scores. So since FAMU is out, it looks like the 2nd best MEAC team will be the representative in that “bowl”. That means the highest team that would be eligible for a playoff At-Large spot would be the 3rd best MEAC team. It looks like NC A&T will make it to the HBCU “bowl” game. SC State will finish right behind them, but with three losses, they should not receive serious At-Large consideration.

MVC – NDSU finally clinched the AQ by beating South Dakota. They are now one more win away from likely getting the #1 Seed. There are four teams who have very good chances for At-Large spots: SDSU, UNI, Illinois State, and Southern Illinois. Surprisingly, SDSU was able to beat UNI this past weekend – even after losing their QB a few weeks ago. Ultimately, all four of these teams have good resumes. None of them have bad losses. All of them have good wins. I think all of them get At-Large bids and at least one, if not two, of them gets a Seed.

NEC – The battle for the NEC crown turned a lot simpler than it could have been. CCSU was able to beat Robert Morris to take the lead in the AQ race. This would have set up a scenario where we could have had a three-way tie after next week...but Duquesne (the possible third team) was upset by a bad Bryant team to knock them out of the AQ race. So CCSU has now clinched the AQ. Can they get a Seed with an 11-1 record? No – their schedule is just too weak. Can any NEC teams get an At-Large? No.

OVC – Austin Peay is one step closer to getting the AQ. They beat a bad Murray State team this past weekend and will face a bad EIU team in the final week. The AQ will come down to two games: that Austin Peay/EIU game and SEMO/Murray State. If Austin Peay wins their game, they get the AQ, If Austin Peay loses, but SEMO wins their game, then SEMO gets the title. If both Austin Peay and SEMO lose, then Austin Peay gets the AQ – even though it turns into a three-way tie between Austin Peay, SEMO, and UT-Martin. (Austin Peay beat both of those other teams, so they win all tie-breakers.) As for At-Large chances….If Austin Peay loses the AQ (which means they lost to 1-10 EIU), they could still get in, but it will be hard. They would have three unbelievably terrible losses (EIU, Tennessee State, and ETSU – who currently have only five D1 wins between them). That could easily be enough for the Committee to leave them out. SEMO, meanwhile, could finish at 9-3 with no bad losses. They would get in in that situation. If they lose to Murray State and drop to 8-4, it becomes tougher, but I still think they squeak in. UT-Martin is currently at 7-4, but their I-AA slate is over. Next week, they play I-A Kentucky – a likely loss that would put them at 7-5 and solidly in 3rd place in the OVC. They will be on the bubble with no bad losses. No other teams after that will get in from the OVC.

Patriot – Holy Cross must be thrilled because they are now back in the lead for the AQ with their win and Lafayette’s loss to Colgate. If Holy Cross wins against Georgetown next week, they will get the AQ. If they lose, then we know they will be tied with either Lafayette or Lehigh (those two teams will play each other in the final week, so the loser will be knocked out) and possibly Bucknell. However, it then come down to just that Lehigh/Lafayette game. If Lehigh wins, Holy Cross wins all tie-breakers and gets the AQ. If Lafayette wins, then Lafayette wins all tie-breakers and gets the AQ. This is one of the worst conferences in I-AA this year, so there will be no At-Large coming from here.

Pioneer – San Diego once again dominated a Pioneer team and has clinched the AQ yet again. They will likely go on the road in the first round against one of the Big Sky teams. No other teams are real At-Large contenders, so the Pioneer is settled.

SoCon – Both Wofford and Chatty won their games over Furman and Citadel, respectively, so the AQ is settled and it goes to Wofford. Chatty, Furman, and Citadel are now working on trying to secure At-Large spots. Furman has 7 wins, but they play an NAIA team next week, so their win total is locked in. The only team they have beaten that currently has a winning record is Chatty. Chatty is now at 6-5, but they also only have one win against a team that currently has a winning record – Citadel. Citadel is now at 6-5 and has only beaten one winning team – Furman. However, Citadel also beat I-A Georgia Tech. I think that gives them edge over the other two. We can assume at least one team from the SoCon will get an At-Large, so the others are going to have to hope some bubble teams pick up losses next week.

Southland – Things have settled nicely in the Southland. After entering the week with four teams tied for first place, only three of those teams were able to win this past weekend. Sam Houston was upset by a very bad NW State – which drops them out of the AQ race. Central Arkansas, Nicholls State, and SELA all won to stay tied, but Nicholls and SELA will play each other for the AQ next week. (Central Arkansas has lost to both teams, so they lose all tie-breakers.) As for At-Large chances...Sam Houston has some absolutely terrible losses (NW State, Lamar) and only one real good win (Nicholls). They’ll be at 6-5 with a win, but I don’t think it will be enough. There are too many better choices if the Committee wants more Southland teams. McNeese has a slightly better resume, but again, there are just too many teams ahead of them if the finish at 7-5. Central Arkansas has 8 wins as of now and can get to 9 with a win over Incarnate Word. They have no bad losses and a win over a I-A team (WKU) and possibily one conference AQ winner (Austin Peay). I think they get in with a win, and will still be a strong contender with a loss (as long as it’s not a blowout). If Nicholls loses to SELA, they will be at 7-5. They have no terrible losses and one good win (over Central Arkansas). I think I would put an 8-4 Central Arkansas in over a 7-5 Nicholls – even with Nicholls’ head-to-head win. That leaves SELA. If they lose to Nicholls, they will finish at 7-4 (and one hurricane-cancelled game). Just like Nicholls, they have no terrible losses and the Central Arkansas win. I think it’s a flip of the coin between SELA and Central Arkansas (mainly due to the I-A win). (So SELA can’t afford to lose in a blowout.)