(11-11-2019 12:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 11:07 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 10:48 AM)Shox Wrote:  The committee could rank Minnesota #1 and it wouldn't matter. The only way they get in is if they are 13-0 with a win against Ohio State.

Screw Bama...it is beyond nauseous that you don't have to be a conference champ to get a playoff spot when there are 5 conferences vying for four spots.

Unless Clemson and Oklahoma both lose, Oregon is screwed. A one loss Big XII champ will get the invite.

I disagree. I think the CFP rankings last week - which had Oregon and Utah ahead of Oklahoma and Baylor - make it clear the committee values the PAC teams more highly.

Now if Baylor runs the table and goes unbeaten, they will make the playoffs. But if it comes down to a one-loss PAC champ vs a one-loss Big 12 champ, I think the PAC champ will get the nod

OU almost certainly gets the nod and probably Baylor too. Look at the remaining schedule. OU will have Baylor twice (or Baylor and Texas/OSU/KSU) and Oklahoma St. Baylor would have Texas and OU twice (or OU and Texas/OSU/KSU). Oregon has 5-4 Arizona St. and 4-5 Arizona and Oregon St. plus maybe Utah. Utah has 4-5 UCLA and Arizona and 4-6 Colorado plus Oregon. So that's 3 ranked teams vs. 1.

Style points matter so that could make a difference either way. OU lost some style points with their 4th Q vs. ISU, as did Baylor vs. TCU.

As for the conference as a whole, the Big 12 had the only 3 loss team in the initial CFP-Oklahoma St. And KSU was several slots higher than the AP and Coaches' poll had them.

The Pac-12 and the Big 12 are similar. The Pac-12 has Oregon and Utah at 8-1. Every other school has 4 to 6 wins. They are all bowl eligible at this point. The Big 12 has an unbeaten Baylor at 9-0 and OU at 8-1. Every other school has 3 to 6 wins. They are all bowl eligible at this point.

If Oregon and Utah are one loss teams in a championship game, then the Oregon or Utah winner comes out of the game with a conference championship and a top ten win. In the Big 12, OU and Baylor play this weekend. A loss by OU and they are done. A loss by Baylor and they are done.

A 12-1 OU team can make an argument for being in the playoff. But I think a 12-1 Oregon, undefeated in conference and with 12 straight wins, is in better shape. Besides the clock mismanagement loss in the last nine seconds to Auburn, the 56-24 win at USC was impressive. That was a statement win. Utah lost at USC, 30-23. A 12-1 OU team, in my opinion, should get the edge over a 12-1 Utah team.

What makes this difficult is that everybody knows how talented Alabama is. Oregon, according to a draft report I receive, has at least six players in the top 100 of the 2020 NFL draft, three on the offensive line. They have some good talent. In a recent mock draft in Pro Football Focus, Alabama had six players going in the first round. They have a ridiculous amount of talent at Alabama. The problem is their schedule and the loss to LSU. Their defense was shredded against LSU at home. Against Clemson in the national championship game, their defense was also shredded.

Those are the two biggest games in 2019 Alabama has played in. It would seem that they might have a defensive problem that they need to address. So if they get in over a one-loss Oregon or one-loss OU, it is just based on projected NFL talent on their roster.