(10-14-2019 03:18 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I definitely don't believe that UConn should be expecting anything at all from the AAC. It was UConn's choice to leave and, even though I believe that the school will ultimately be better off for the move, they have to deal with the consequences no matter how painful it might be scheduling-wise for the next couple of years.

On the other hand, I've been continually perplexed by the overconfidence (at least publicly) from Mike Aresco that the NCAA is going to grant the outcome that the AAC truly wants, which is essentially to change the conference championship game qualification rules entirely to allow for something less than a full conference round robin for 11 schools. Even if there is a MAC-type waiver where there are 2 divisions that are playing less than a division round robin, that waiver had always been stipulated as a temporary stopgap. The MAC was clear that they didn't want the situation to be permanent and were looking to change its membership composition. In contrast, the AAC is preemptively stating that they don't want to expand, which would effectively mean that they want whatever waiver that is granted by the NCAA to be permanent. I really don't think the NCAA is going to do that here. Even very recent history (most particularly the rebuffing of the ACC's attempt to remove any divisional requirement for conference championship games) says that the NCAA's membership is much more conservative regarding the conference championship game rules than the fans seem to be.

The upshot is that if the NCAA only grants a temporary waiver (which is the MAC precedent), then the AAC is still going to need to find a 12th football member regardless of whether Aresco and the AAC members want one or not. From that perspective, which 12th football member that the AAC could *realistically* add (e.g. BYU and Army are NOT realistic) that would add or at least maintain financial value? There might be a long list of football *teams* better than UConn out there in the MAC/C-USA/Sun Belt, but we all should know that conference realignment isn't really about on-the-field prowess. Instead, is there really a *school* better than UConn out there, even when we're just talking about a football-only membership? This is where the bridges between UConn and the AAC may not necessarily have been burned.

Look - if I were personally running either UConn or the AAC, I would want the divorce to be final. So, I'm not saying that UConn staying the AAC as a football-only member is a great idea in a vacuum. However, circumstances make strange bedfellows. The AAC can't really know how to move until it actually receives a verification from the NCAA of what the AAC is allowed to do regarding a conference championship game (and it may not be allowed to as much as it would like).

I agree with all of this. My guess is despite Aresco's claims to start working on a permanent rule change if he gets the waiver, he's really just buying 2 years to find a replacement for UConn football. And given the recent comments from the Air Force coach, my guess is it will be the Falcons.