(07-05-2019 10:29 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(07-04-2019 06:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-04-2019 04:06 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-04-2019 02:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Having TV sets doesn't count. Having people who watch your product on TV does. I'm not sold on, or impressed by, the ACC's number of sets when the ACC is 5th of five in terms of the percentage of actual viewers compared to the total # of possible viewers. I expect the ACCN to make money but nowhere near the inflated numbers like those tossed out by the FSU folks. You'll earn 3 to 5 million at the launch with a target range of 7 to 8 within 5 years. I think you're too late to the party in that the BTN numbers are declining and the SEC's plateaued this past year. But we'll see.

I also have my doubts that schools like Maryland and Virginia are going to make any kind of move on non revenues until they are forced to do so.

Football has a declining supply of high school players to draw from. IMO expense of playing and diminishing recruits will spell the end of the tweener teams. Well have those fully committed and those who play with reduced scholarships and closer to the FCS level than that of the top G5's. I think everything above the FCS level will shrink, including the P5.

I don't see your Yellow Jackets dropping down because Tech is a football first school and it's greatest athletic heritage is pegged to the sport. I do think football at the highest level will be by the SEC schools, Oklahoma and Texas schools, and Southern most ACC schools and that Big 10 brands and some PAC brands will simply spend to get players out of the Southeast and Southwest. And that IMO is a decade or two away. I do look for the P65 to shrink overall to around a P48.

The cable model, while it lasts, says that TV sets with carriage matter considerably. People in NYC who have access to the ACCN will be paying the ACC whether or not they watch Syracuse. The SEC uses this same strategy to great effect in Texas.

The SEC carriage rate is 1.30 in footprint. That's based on % of viewers. We'll wait and see what the ACC rate is going to be. The Big 10 gets .49 cents in footprint, the PAC gets .11 cents.

If you are successful you might push 9 million, if your rate is the same as the SEC's which I highly doubt.

The real money is going to be in the # of content games you actually have (national appeal games). That's why Texas and OU are the hot commodity for the SEC and Big 10. That's the future.

Like anything, the issue is one of criteria. In this case, what criteria do you use to evaluate what "national appeal games" are? Is it sheer number of viewers? Is it a percentage of viewers in various markets? Is it any game with at least one national brand or does it take two national brands (i.e, OK vs. Texas counts, but does OK vs. Vanderbilt?) Is it stakes (playoff, division or conference championships), rivalries, etc?

While stakes drive interest, generally we are talking about 2 iconic brands playing each other. Texas or Oklahoma in the SEC will play within the rotation Texas A&M, L.S.U., Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida. That's 7 potential games against top 20 brands. Toss the other in with them and it's 8.

Put them in the Big 10 and it would be Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State and Nebraska with 2 or 3 of those being more top 30ish.

Put them in the PAC and it drops to Washington, U.S.C., and then drops again to Stanford, Oregon, and U.C.L.A. So two top 20 brands and 3 top 30ish brands.

Put them in the ACC and it's Clemson, Florida State, and sometimes Virginia Tech or Miami and occasionally Georgia Tech. So two top 20 brands and 3 top 30-40ish brands.

Games against other top 20 brands draw the nations eyes.

Texas against Arkansas would be big regionally. Texas against Missouri or Oklahoma against Missouri would be strong regionally. Texas against Vanderbilt would be no better than Alabama against Vandy.

So content games exponentially increase your revenue. Now obviously in any conference OU and UT would not play all of those brands every year, but in the SEC you might easily have them playing 3 in the regular season and another in the CCG should they make it that far. That's still more value competitively than the Big 10 would offer and much more than the PAC or ACC.