(02-25-2019 09:39 AM)dan10 Wrote:  Thanks to their upset, JMU, not Towson look to be in control for the 6th seed. 1 win should do it for us, but neither are going to be easy games. Hofstra is in trouble, and unfortunately I feel like playing them on Thursday is asking for a beat down out of rage. A few weeks ago there was literally a win and lock up the top seed for Hofstra when they were at NU. Now Hofstra only has a 96% chance to lock up the top seed. First time in a long time their chances were not >99% to be the top seed. Thankfully 1 win would be enough for our guys, because if we beat Hofstra, there is no way in hell we will beat NU with them playing for the potential opportunity at top seed. Our likely finish is 8th.

28% chance at 6th
21% chance at 7th
33% chance at 8th

This has to be the latest in a season where so much in unknown for seeding. The only team who knows its seed is Charleston who is locked in at 3rd. NU/HU still alive for 1/2. 5 teams are still available for the 4 seed (W&M with the best chance). Elon and UNCW are the only teams who cannot reach the top 6 at this point.

Dan, the crazy part is Hofstra still gets the 1 seed if they win either game this week due to their sweep of Charleston. But, should they lose both, the main tiebreaker then is who beat Northeastern. Towson did and JMU didn't. The Tribe beat neither one so they almost have to get one of the 2 road games this week. The only way the Tribe wins tiebreakers is if you guys are in it since we swept the Dragons. So, it is clearly better for us if you guys win one and better for you if the Tribe wins both this week. If you guys lose Thursday, you won't have any of the tiebreakers. But, if you win, you need a loss by Delaware on Saturday. Then, you would be past them unless the Tribe ends up in a big tie with you and everyone else at 8-10.

EvanJ will have better thoughts on Hofstra than I do. But, it makes sense that the 1 seed avoiding both Charleston and/or Northeastern until the final is the easier path. I doubt anyone wants to face either Charleston with the home court advantage or Northeastern right now. Hofstra has been the best team all year, but they are not playing as well right now. They may need the "easier" path of W&M/Delaware or Drexel rather than a semi against Charleston. Still would be very surprised if the champion is not one of the top 3. Only once(1993) has the champion not been a top 3 seed. But, the Tribe will be coming in playing well if they can win 2 more this week.

I actually think you guys are going to win one this week. Either you beat Hofstra, or Northeastern has nothing to play for on Saturday and you beat them. You guys are in control for the 6th seed(or better). All you have to do is win at home. Also, both you and the Hens might have something to play for Saturday while the opponents do not.