(02-23-2018 10:04 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-23-2018 08:48 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(02-23-2018 08:10 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(02-23-2018 12:13 AM)doss2 Wrote:  Three way tie no longer seems as likely.

Still likely need to beat WSU for Title and 1 seed.

If you mean "1 Seed" at the Conference Tournament, then OK...

If you mean "1 Seed" at the NCAA, then you are insane. The "1 Seed" is dead and buried. The best UC can muster now is a 3 or 4 Seed. That's the ceiling, IMO.

It'd be nice to have a Conference title, but the regular season title doesn't mean much, practically.

Win out and the Cats are still going to be at the 2 seed line. Lose to Wichita State and UC probably needs to get the finals of the conference tournament to get back to the 3 seed line. Going into the selection Sunday, 28-5, 15-3 with a combine 14-5 record against the top 2 groups is still a three seed when you compare UC's resume with everyone else this year. Losing to the championship game might bump UC down to a four and winning might earn a two.

Michigan State, non conference SOS 223, 20 games so far against the bottom two groups. Only 7 wins against the top two groups.
Gonzaga, 15 games agains the bottom group alone. 5-4 agains the top two groups.
Clemoson, 3-7 versus the top group.
Texas Tech, could be looking at four losses in row by next Tuesday.
Arizona, only 9-6 against the top two groups.
Ohio State, 8-6 against the top two groups. One bad loss.

Anyway, there a lot of team with huge resume holes out there. Those are just of the more interesting cases listed above.

My guess at this for those teams is.

Michigan State 3 seed, 2 seed if they win out.
Gonzaga, 8 seed, 7 seed if they win out and beat St. Mary's.
Clemson 5 seed
Texas Tech, 3 seed
Arizona, 4 seed
Ohio State, 4 seed.

If Gonzaga is an 8 seed somebody really screwed up. They would be a crazy unfair draw for the 1 seed in the second round. On second thought...lets make them the 8 in the region where Xavier is the 1. Gonzaga might even be favored.

Does Gonzaga deserve better than an 8 seed, yes. Until the committee starts to use the predictive measures in seeding I have my doubts regarding how they will treat the WCC this year.

This is what the committee is likely going focus on for Gonzaga:
RPI 38
5-4 against the top two tiers.
SOS 157
NSOS 127
15 games against group 4
21 total against the bottom two groups.
WCC ranked 13 best conference.

Here is what the committee should focus on for Gonzaga
Kenpom 9
Overall Predictive Average 9.6667
Result Based Average 30
Overall Average 19
5 wins including 4 away from home against teams in consideration for the tournament.

Historically the team with this type profile and RPI Metrics is an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. The name Gonzaga and move to more modern Metrics give them a shot to seeded correctly; however, I don't have the confidence that they will get this right. I don't think I have ever seen a team from the 13th best conference with an RPI close to 40 earn a six seed or better. I dislike the RPI as much as you but the committee still has not moved away from it as the dominant sorting tool.

The good news for UC is the American in general are somewhat overvalued in the RPI versus other tools. I believe UCF, Temple, UConn, Tulsa and Memphis all have significant differences between their RPI and other metrics. Only SMU is downgraded based on their RPI. Overall its a win for the Bearcats as wins over those middle grouped teams show up a quality wins on the team sheet.