(04-16-2015 12:40 PM)HerdZoned Wrote:  

(04-15-2015 03:47 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Yeah. Thank goodness for UAB and FAU or your RPI would drop hard. It's still going to fall even if you sweep UTEP, NKU, and Liberty, but at least you have a few good games left.

If we can sweep all 8 games and have 2-4 run rule games our RPI may stay the same or not drop that much. Marshall is 28-10 and have won the last 10 in a row. Marshall has 13 games left. If we can win 9-10 of those games and have 37-38 wins or even more it would be hard to not give us an at large if we wouldn't win CUSA.

You might get an at-large, but it wouldn't surprise me to see your RPI might take a hit either. 50% of the RPI consists of opponent's winning percentage. Right now for Marshall that is .520974. After you play the next 10 games your OWP will go down, as those opponents currently average a .478306 winning percentage. In addition, if Northern Kentucky's RPI stays the same, you will be penalized a total of .0056 points for playing the two games, regardless if you win them or not.

Your best hope is for South Alabama to go back to the top 25 (which we should) and have WKU go to the top 25 to give you an additional 0.0014 bonus points combined. In that case those extra bonus points can help cushion the blow of getting penalized by playing NKU. Heck, just hope NKU is rained out. Along those same lines you would want UAB, USF, and FAU to remain in the top 50. USF is close to being out of the top 50, which would cost you 0.0007 bonus points. Towson staying in top 75 will help as well.

There is a chance your RPI stays around 40. But it really depends on your opponents (and their opponents) and the other teams around you at this point. USA should get a strong push to end the season, as 9 of our last 10 games are against Top 65 RPI teams.