(03-05-2014 01:14 AM)CintiFan Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 02:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 02:03 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 03:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. It also gives the B1G access to the South. The question then becomes: do the massive gains in the Texas market(with Texas and Oklahoma) outweigh the potential gains of the B1G in the South (especially if the B1G gets access to Georgia (Georgia Tech) or one of the two ACC Florida Schools.
Sometimes it's better to stick with the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Supposedly OSU and Delaney really wanted to add FSU this go around according to some OSU insiders, but Michigan and Wisconsin opposed (AAU snobs). The B1G really likes GT, but doesn't want them on an island. I think if UNC and UVA go to the B1G and require Duke be taken as well, then I believe GT is a shoo in. I think then FSU gets in so that they can add a football juggernaut and get a small foothold into GA/FL recruiting. I could see this: Duke, UNC, UVA, GT, FSU, and one more (Kansas, Clemson, VT, Miami, Syracuse). If I was the B1G, if this came to pass, I would take Clemson (or Miami) as the last school to help sink their talons deeper into the SE. That would make them much stronger on the FB field and they would dominate basketball.

The SEC would add NC State and VT (if available). Whatever southern ACC schools remained (Miami, Clemson, Louisville?) would be begging the SEC to take them too. The SEC would get on the phone with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Since the B1G took the SE ACC teams the B12 is doomed to always be a very distant 4th since the big hope of the B12 is the ACC comes apart and they get FSU, Clemson, Miami, GT and a couple more and vault themselves back into B1G/SEC territory. If the B1G took FSU and GT then I think Texas, Kansas, and OU would be looking to the PAC, B1G (24 schools was mentioned as a possible end game a few times by B1G people) or SEC to pick up them and a few friends. The financial disparity would be too large to continue as a 10 school conference or as a larger conferences with the least valuable remaining ACC schools.

I kind of want this to happen to see where KU, Texas and OU would end up and see how the SEC and PAC react. Would the SEC go for some northern ACC schools to strike into the NE since the B1G invaded the SE? Would the B12 and PAC merge or the SEC and B12? Would KU, OU, Texas and 1 more go to the B1G 24? Would the PAC add ND and a eastern group of schools? There would be so many crazy options and scenarios.

The Big 10 will never land Florida State or Clemson and I have some doubts about Georgia Tech though not as many as the other two. Miami could go anywhere since they have to fly everywhere to play anyway. Florida State and Clemson alumni might be quite happy to be in the ACC, but both alumni bases have all of their interest in playing Southern rivals and traveling to away games. If the SEC really thought that they might go to the Big 10 both would get immediate offers and the difference in SEC money and Big 10 money wouldn't be enough to cover the travel. And so far there is only 1 non AAU Big 10 school and my money is that it will stay that way unless Notre Dame comes in, or Syracuse wants to reapply to AAU. I don't think the Big 10 will come any farther South than North Carolina. Georgia Tech is the only remaining Southern Public that might consider the Big 10.

Remember Florida State and Clemson are football first schools and both know that if they chose the Big 10 they would never recruit the South as well again. Their football days would be over. Besides the Big 10 like the SEC will likely not desire to dilute such a strong regional brand by going counter to their cultural roots. The real threat to the Big 10 if they did try to encroach the deep South is that the SEC wouldn't fool around with Pitt and Syracuse, they would go after Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan to form a major pay day conference. Add those three to Texas, Oklahoma and Florida State and a new tier beyond the P5 would emerge. The SEC has 5 of the top 10 earners now and 9 of the top 20. Add the schools listed and we own the top 10 outright and have 5 of the next 10. It would be NFL lite. And for those who think the Big 10 can't be poached there have been many editorials written at Ohio State already that address their weariness with carrying 8 of the 12 current Big 10 programs, soon to be 10 of the 14. Add those three to the SEC and the monetary value explodes and then those three would be in a conference where the vast majority all pull their weight and add value in content to one another. I love it when people say that Oklahoma and Texas want to be with peers. The vast majority of the economic peers of Oklahoma and Texas are in the SEC already. Ditto for Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. If you added Notre Dame and Clemson to that line up you would 17 of the top 20 earners. At that point being a charter member of the SEC might not be enough of a reason to get an automatic in to remaining in the conference.

Just something to think about when we talk about grandiose Big 10 plans. As they say in True Grit "that's bold talk for a one eyed fat man!" Besides the Big 10 and SEC won't be able to take ACC teams without each other's cooperation.

Also, if we ever do move to a P3 the Irish will have to drop anchor. If they move with Duke, U.N.C. & UVa I still believe Delany rounds out New England with B.C. and New York with Syracuse. There won't be room for G.T..

Speaking of 'bold talk' JR, the concept of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State leaving the B1G to join the SEC is about as realistic as Alabama, Georgia and Florida leaving the SEC to join the B1G. Maybe it happens when the federal government takes over college sports, shortly after nationalizing health care, the auto industry and the banks.

Neither BC nor Clemson would ever get an offer from the B1G. Neither are AAU, of course, but they also don't fit the profile of a land grant type state sponsored research university with large alumni bases.

I think your original B1G lineup gets it almost right. Although Delany's sights are set eastward, I think they'll add one western team to help bolster Nebraska as a member, most likely Kansas. UVA, and UNC are the likely first east coast additions, but Georgia Tech would get the invitation, not Duke. Duke's a great academic institution but GT is one of the top 5 engineering schools in the US and adds a presence in the Atlanta market and a foothold in Georgia recruiting. The SEC at that point gets is wished for outposts in VT and NC St.

If we then go to a P3 structure following an ACC jailbreak, only Texas, Oklahoma, FSU and Notre Dame are assured of spots in either the SEC, B1G or PAC. Other schools will certainly get invites, but only because they might be part of a package to lure one of the big 4 or as fill ins to round out the number of conference members.

Texas' decision will likely drive the outcome. If we assume Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC, as you project, and we are left with only the teams you list as ACC/Big 12 remnants, I think quite a few of them have trouble finding a conference.

The B1G would only take FSU, ND, Syracuse and GT (or Duke, if GT is already in the B1G instead of Duke), or more likely only two of them to get to 20 members. Some of the Big 12 remnants, like Texas Tech, ISU, KSU or OSU might be attractive to the PAC to fill in its eastern division. The SEC might want some combination of Clemson, FSU, OSU, Texas Tech, Kansas St., Pitt, or Syracuse, but even many of them might be a stretch. If the SEC already has Texas and Oklahoma, they don't need Tech or OSU, and the SEC might be better served by doubling up in Florida with FSU and adding another program, like Pitt, that gets them into a new state.

That still leaves lots of quality programs in the Eastern US out in the cold or in a remnants type conference. It's hard for me to see how we get much beyond 60-64 teams in a P3 world.

Personally, I would rather see ND stay affiliated with the "remnants" conference (or join it in full) than ever see it join the Big Ten Conference.

Heck, I would rather ND deemphasize football and just go ahead and join the Big East than ever join the Big Ten.