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How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - BraveKnight - 01-16-2022 06:30 PM
How would you rank each programs outlook for the next decade or two?
I would go:
Oklahoma State
Baylor
UCF
Cincinnati
Iowa State
TCU
West Virginia
BYU
Texas Tech
Houston
Kansas State
Kansas
This was actually pretty hard, and I’m sure you guys all have different opinions on this.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - goodknightfl - 01-16-2022 10:07 PM
I wouldn't even think more than 5 to 10 years out.
Baylor/Olk state on top at least short term
WV with B12 into fla could be a sleeper
UCF long term upside is huge, no idea on next 5 years. Growing pains?
UH much the same as UCF
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - Fighting Muskie - 01-16-2022 11:03 PM
(01-16-2022 10:07 PM)goodknightfl Wrote: I wouldn't even think more than 5 to 10 years out.
Baylor/Olk state on top at least short term
WV with B12 into fla could be a sleeper
UCF long term upside is huge, no idea on next 5 years. Growing pains?
UH much the same as UCF
Agreed. I also see a lot of parity in this league. I think it’ll be tough for teams to win 8 conference games—I see a lot of teams tying at 7-1 or 6-2
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - CitrusUCF - 01-17-2022 10:57 AM
Hard to put together a full list, but the top dogs will be:
1-~4 years: Baylor, OK State
~5+ years: UCF, Baylor, OK State, Houston
- I don't think Cincy will sustain at elite level once Fickell is gone. And it's just a matter of time before Day leaves Ohio State. They won't be bad, but I think they'll be an average team.
- BYU had a heck of year this year against a decent schedule, but I don't think their ceiling is particularly high. They'll probably have some 10+ win seasons, but I don't think that will be the norm. They're basically Kansas State, where there's a chance of 10+ wins but 8-4 is more common. The BYU fans that think 5 wins against the PAC-12 is indicative of Big 12 domination are going to be greatly disappointed. Other than Utah, none of those wins were against teams that would have even been top half in the Big 12 this year.
- Texas Tech is a boom/bust candidate with the new coach, McGuire. He appears to be an elite recruiter who can bring in talent, but can he coach it up at the Big 12 level? I'm not sure that recruiter-first is a good strategy for them, but we'll find out.
- WVU is going to struggle to keep getting elite players out of FL & GA against UCF and Cincy (in addition to all of the other existing competition). I think they are what they are at this point, a slightly above average program.
I think one thing that is hard to separate teams is that there is a lot of parity. Even Kansas will improve under Leipold. So a lot of years, there's going to be one or two games for each team that can flip the final standings.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - CYOWA - 01-17-2022 11:26 AM
Oh, man. This is a tough question. The only thing I'm for sure of is: if you think your program can just come in and dominate you're in for a rude awakening. BYU fans on YouTube are pretty cocky.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - BraveKnight - 01-17-2022 11:27 AM
(01-17-2022 11:26 AM)CYOWA Wrote: Oh, man. This is a tough question. The only thing I'm for sure of is: if you think your program can just come in and dominate you're in for a rude awakening. BYU fans on YouTube are pretty cocky.I definitely do not think any program could really dominate, I think Ok State has the potential to be a flagship type program, but there won’t be any easy outs in this league.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - Z-Fly - 01-17-2022 11:46 AM
I wouldn't write Cincinnati in the grave just yet. I think the answer is two fold;
Luke will absolutely take the OSU job, if it is offered. I won't argue there. I'm not so sure why everyone thinks Day is good as gone. Where is he going? I know he flirted with the Bears. My opinion is that was to get a raise more than anything else. Let's go ahead and assume it happens in the next three years. Luke then would have to be offered the job. Let's say Luke wins 8, 10, 7 games in those three years. I'm guessing Luke wouldn't be the first choice. If you recall, Luke was the IHC and struggled. They haven't forgot that. Up until this year, most OSU alums/fans did not want Luke. If Day leaves this Off-Season, then yes I agree he probably gets the call.
Now lets go further into the ifs. Let's assume everything lines up and Luke takes off up North. There is only one P5 program in Ohio currently, with soon to be two. Think about how crazy that is. It's probably not a reach to call Ohio the number 5 recruiting state in the US. It's one of the football super states. Then to dig down ever further, Cincinnati has some of the best High School football anywhere. So obviously, Ohio State grabs who they want. If Cincinnati just grabs a decent chunk of the next group, they'll end up with a pretty good looking roster. There is a reason 3 out of the last 4 coaches had pretty good success. Luke and Brian had Elite season, and Butch won the Big East Twice in three years. Yeah, that Butch Jones. The one that just won 2 games at Arkansas State. Tommy collected pay checks for 4 years. Even knowing that, Tommy still won a share of the AAC title. As long as the HC has a pulse, Cincinnati should be in the Mix.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - CYOWA - 01-17-2022 12:31 PM
(01-17-2022 11:46 AM)Z-Fly Wrote: I wouldn't write Cincinnati in the grave just yet. I think the answer is two fold;
Luke will absolutely take the OSU job, if it is offered. I won't argue there. I'm not so sure why everyone thinks Day is good as gone. Where is he going? I know he flirted with the Bears. My opinion is that was to get a raise more than anything else. Let's go ahead and assume it happens in the next three years. Luke then would have to be offered the job. Let's say Luke wins 8, 10, 7 games in those three years. I'm guessing Luke wouldn't be the first choice. If you recall, Luke was the IHC and struggled. They haven't forgot that. Up until this year, most OSU alums/fans did not want Luke. If Day leaves this Off-Season, then yes I agree he probably gets the call.
Now lets go further into the ifs. Let's assume everything lines up and Luke takes off up North. There is only one P5 program in Ohio currently, with soon to be two. Think about how crazy that is. It's probably not a reach to call Ohio the number 5 recruiting state in the US. It's one of the football super states. Then to dig down ever further, Cincinnati has some of the best High School football anywhere. So obviously, Ohio State grabs who they want. If Cincinnati just grabs a decent chunk of the next group, they'll end up with a pretty good looking roster. There is a reason 3 out of the last 4 coaches had pretty good success. Luke and Brian had Elite season, and Butch won the Big East Twice in three years. Yeah, that Butch Jones. The one that just won 2 games at Arkansas State. Tommy collected pay checks for 4 years. Even knowing that, Tommy still won a share of the AAC title. As long as the HC has a pulse, Cincinnati should be in the Mix.
Agreed. Cincinnati has survived multiple coaches and conferences and is consistently competitive. It takes a washed-up coach from Arkansas with political aspirations to tank that program.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - Jackson1011 - 01-17-2022 02:09 PM
There are a lot of good programs here. Baylor has to be #1 especially if we combine football and hoops. How much the SEC going to dominate Texas? Competing against Texas, a+m and Oklahoma is prob not realistic, but will tech or Baylor be able to beat out a second tier sec school like ole miss for kids? Those schools can’t get destroyed in Texas the way it seems acc schools get destroyed in Florida/Georgia when competing with the sec.
Jackson
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - CliftonAve - 01-17-2022 03:59 PM
(01-17-2022 11:46 AM)Z-Fly Wrote: I wouldn't write Cincinnati in the grave just yet. I think the answer is two fold;
Luke will absolutely take the OSU job, if it is offered. I won't argue there. I'm not so sure why everyone thinks Day is good as gone. Where is he going? I know he flirted with the Bears. My opinion is that was to get a raise more than anything else. Let's go ahead and assume it happens in the next three years. Luke then would have to be offered the job. Let's say Luke wins 8, 10, 7 games in those three years. I'm guessing Luke wouldn't be the first choice. If you recall, Luke was the IHC and struggled. They haven't forgot that. Up until this year, most OSU alums/fans did not want Luke. If Day leaves this Off-Season, then yes I agree he probably gets the call.
Now lets go further into the ifs. Let's assume everything lines up and Luke takes off up North. There is only one P5 program in Ohio currently, with soon to be two. Think about how crazy that is. It's probably not a reach to call Ohio the number 5 recruiting state in the US. It's one of the football super states. Then to dig down ever further, Cincinnati has some of the best High School football anywhere. So obviously, Ohio State grabs who they want. If Cincinnati just grabs a decent chunk of the next group, they'll end up with a pretty good looking roster. There is a reason 3 out of the last 4 coaches had pretty good success. Luke and Brian had Elite season, and Butch won the Big East Twice in three years. Yeah, that Butch Jones. The one that just won 2 games at Arkansas State. Tommy collected pay checks for 4 years. Even knowing that, Tommy still won a share of the AAC title. As long as the HC has a pulse, Cincinnati should be in the Mix.
People have been saying UC is going to fall by the wayside since Mark Dantonio left after the 2006 season. All the points made above is balls on correct. The thing that most don't realize is that although Cincinnati has had football since 1885, the university has only been fully investing in it for 20 years or so. Since that time the school has seen its enrollment and alumni contributions swell.... if and when Luke moves on UC will have the resources and commitment to hire another quality replacement (and if he sucks they will can him and hire someone else). UC is an attractive job so there would be plenty of suitors.
One more thing regarding recruiting, in addition to Ohio, the city rests relatively close to Indianapolis, Chicago, Louisville, Lexington and Detroit. Indy, Louisville and Lexington are two hours away, Chicago and Detroit are 5-6 hours away. We routinely pull recruits out of those markets. We also routinely tap into Florida and Georgia (its an easy drive down I-75).
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - Fighting Muskie - 01-17-2022 06:50 PM
As far as the new members go, I like BYU and UCF’s chances to be contenders for their divisions and I’m optimistic that Cincinnati will to but if they lose Fickle I’m worried the program will take a step back. Houston is the only one that I think will be cellar dweller—they’ve spent a long time outside the “club”—nearly 3 decades.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - tcufrog86 - 01-17-2022 10:04 PM
(01-17-2022 10:57 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote: Hard to put together a full list, but the top dogs will be:
1-~4 years: Baylor, OK State
~5+ years: UCF, Baylor, OK State, Houston
- I don't think Cincy will sustain at elite level once Fickell is gone. And it's just a matter of time before Day leaves Ohio State. They won't be bad, but I think they'll be an average team.
- BYU had a heck of year this year against a decent schedule, but I don't think their ceiling is particularly high. They'll probably have some 10+ win seasons, but I don't think that will be the norm. They're basically Kansas State, where there's a chance of 10+ wins but 8-4 is more common. The BYU fans that think 5 wins against the PAC-12 is indicative of Big 12 domination are going to be greatly disappointed. Other than Utah, none of those wins were against teams that would have even been top half in the Big 12 this year.
- Texas Tech is a boom/bust candidate with the new coach, McGuire. He appears to be an elite recruiter who can bring in talent, but can he coach it up at the Big 12 level? I'm not sure that recruiter-first is a good strategy for them, but we'll find out.
- WVU is going to struggle to keep getting elite players out of FL & GA against UCF and Cincy (in addition to all of the other existing competition). I think they are what they are at this point, a slightly above average program.
I think one thing that is hard to separate teams is that there is a lot of parity. Even Kansas will improve under Leipold. So a lot of years, there's going to be one or two games for each team that can flip the final standings.
I think relative to the other major programs in Texas, Tech is a relatively difficult place to recruit. There doesn't seem to be the depth of talent in West Texas that there used to be and many of the other power conference programs in Texas are in or closer to the major metro areas.
I think if Tech can get kids to visit then they are back on even footing, but think they are times struggle to get kids to even consider playing out in Lubbock.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - AuzGrams - 01-18-2022 05:40 AM
Oklahoma State (until Gundy leaves)
Baylor
Cincinnati
Iowa State
BYU
UCF
TCU
Kansas State
West Virginia
Houston
Texas Tech
Kansas
Honestly 1-10 are pretty interchangeable, kinda down on Texas Tech & Kansas but the rest all have potential
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - Z-Fly - 01-18-2022 07:24 AM
(01-17-2022 06:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: As far as the new members go, I like BYU and UCF’s chances to be contenders for their divisions and I’m optimistic that Cincinnati will to but if they lose Fickle I’m worried the program will take a step back. Houston is the only one that I think will be cellar dweller—they’ve spent a long time outside the “club”—nearly 3 decades.
I mean it's definitely possible. Anyone can hire a dud. At some point, you have to give the program some credit. I somehow forgot about Dantonio yesterday. So 4 of the last 5 coaches have had what some would call success in Cincinnati. When Dantonio was hired is when Cincinnati decided football was a good investment. I don't think that's a coincidence.
This is where I'm going to lose some people. I'll start by saying Fick is an amazing head coach. I don't think he's a generational coach like Urban. Urban got beat up on this year, and I think he's a total sleazeball. But... If Urban shows up at your school though, you're a contender. I'm not sure Fick is that guy. He's a great recruiter, but not amazingly great like Urban. He's a great defensive mind, but not generational. He builds a family atmosphere, which is perfect for Cincinnati. Then he picks the ones he likes and develops them over 4-6 years.
I'm not sure that plugs in directly at Ohio State. The trend now is for Offensive minded mega recruiters. You are finding the best 4/5 stars, plugging them in for 3 or 4 years and on to the next guy. He can be loyal to almost a fault, which is part of that family thing. I think they would be frustrated with his XOs too. Everyone knew, if you ran at Cincinnati, you get 6/7 yards. In the Alabama game, they stuck to the 3-3-5 til the end. On offense, everyone knew the pressure was coming. They had no answer. Maybe there wasn't one. They ran their normal offense until the clock ran out. I'm not sure that flies in Columbus.
He's the perfect fit for a team like Cincinnati. If he moves on, he's at least somewhat replicable. Maybe the next guy won't have the next level of success, but I don't think they are going to fall off the map. I say that with decent confidence, because it's been done several times before. Maybe I'm Naïve. I think Cincinnati's success is equally program and coach driven.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - BearcatJerry - 01-18-2022 07:36 AM
Central Florida fans are...amusing.
Not even in the conference but already winning it.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - BearcatJerry - 01-18-2022 07:37 AM
As for Houston: as long as they have Holgs at the wheel, I'm not too worried.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - CYOWA - 01-18-2022 09:17 AM
(01-17-2022 06:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: Houston is the only one that I think will be cellar dweller.
Really? Houston is the one I'm most worried about becoming a bully:
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - JamesNathan - 01-18-2022 09:52 AM
(01-18-2022 05:40 AM)AuzGrams Wrote: Oklahoma State (until Gundy leaves)
Baylor
Cincinnati
Iowa State
BYU
UCF
TCU
Kansas State
West Virginia
Houston
Texas Tech
Kansas
Honestly 1-10 are pretty interchangeable, kinda down on Texas Tech & Kansas but the rest all have potential
I agree more with this list than with the first one in this thread.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - knight_02 - 01-18-2022 11:59 AM
(01-18-2022 07:36 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote: Central Florida fans are...amusing.
Not even in the conference but already winning it.
We win most conferences we join. it's just our MO.
RE: How Would You Rank the Football Programs of the New Big 12? - CliftonAve - 01-18-2022 12:08 PM
(01-18-2022 11:59 AM)knight_02 Wrote:(01-18-2022 07:36 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote: Central Florida fans are...amusing.
Not even in the conference but already winning it.
We win most conferences we join. it's just our MO.
And so does UC.