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Realignment for the next CFP contract - Kit-Cat - 03-05-2020 11:54 AM
Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.
XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
AAC (Rice, UAB, Army, ODU)
MAC (Marshall, App St)
CUSA (Georgia St, Georgia So, Troy, Louisiana, Ark State, TX State)
This would leave the AAC at 12, MAC at 14 and CUSA at 16. It totally eliminates the SBC as a viable conference, reducing it the G5 to a G4.
Then the 5-2-1 then has a G4 spot and a 4 way revenue split.
People are forgetting CUSA could swallow the SBC if they have enough openings. Fine with 14 they may do 16 or 18 to suck all the value out.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - panite - 03-05-2020 12:00 PM
(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.
XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
AAC (Rice, UAB, Army, ODU)
MAC (Marshall, App St)
CUSA (Georgia St, Georgia So, Troy, Louisiana, Ark State, TX State)
This would leave the AAC at 12, MAC at 14 and CUSA at 16. It totally eliminates the SBC as a viable conference, reducing it the G5 to a G4.
Then the 5-2-1 then has a G4 spot and a 4 way revenue split.
People are forgetting CUSA could swallow the SBC if they have enough openings. Fine with 14 they may do 16 or 18 to suck all the value out.
Off season something to discuss list. I'll play. No to all of the above.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - tigerjamesc - 03-05-2020 12:15 PM
I’ll have the Mem, Cincy special to the B12
Throw Houston +1 (BYU is ideal but would be blocked) to the PAC to get some central time zone games and Texas market.
Don’t care about the rest....
More likely: B12 poaches Arizona twins, AAC moves to more of a mid-tier status with a guaranteed contract bowl and conference stays in tact.
Edit: for clarity, neither is “likely” to happen, but fun to spitball
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - quo vadis - 03-05-2020 12:22 PM
(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.
XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
You realize those four would bring zero new money to the Big 12, they would just be more mouths to feed, right? The Big 12 has.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - Mestophalies - 03-05-2020 12:22 PM
(03-05-2020 12:15 PM)tigerjamesc Wrote: I’ll have the Mem, Cincy special to the B12
Throw Houston +1 (BYU is ideal but would be blocked) to the PAC to get some central time zone games and Texas market.
Don’t care about the rest....
More likely: B12 poaches Arizona twins, AAC moves to more of a mid-tier status with a guaranteed contract bowl.
The Big XII will not be admitting Houston sorry. Not unless they lose a Texas school first.
I just loooovvvveeeee all the Big XII expansion threads. It's far more likely that the Big XII inplodes then it is that they will expand. I dought either will happen this go round.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - Mestophalies - 03-05-2020 12:39 PM
I will throw this out for debate.
If ESPN really wanted a Big12/Pac12 merger, then the Big12 has to iniciate it. The problem is in the numbers (Number of teams and distance of travel). To eleviate that problem, ESPN could make an arrangement elevating the AAC to a Power Conference. This is how they may do it.
Add WVa, Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. to the AAC. this gives the AAC 14 FB members and makes them equal with the ACC. Now the remaining Big12 7 can take 7 Pac12 members and creat a Power Conference akin to the B1G and the SEC. All these schools win as does ESPN.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. would be ok as both remain Power Conference members and they can still play each other every year. The same could be said for the Kansas schools. WVa would be happy because they remain in a Power Conference and they get conference mates within driving distance.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - Stugray2 - 03-05-2020 01:05 PM
The B12 is either going to go to uneven revenue sharing, where Texas and Oklahoma get an extra 1/2 share compare to the little 8 (e.g., a $40m per school pay out would translate to $36.364m for the little-8 and $54.545m for UT and OU) and control of their 3rd tier rights in order for them to keep pace with the SEC and B1G, and for the little-8 to at least stay in the ball park of the ACC in revenue, or else Oklahoma leaves for either the SEC or B1G, and the revenue collapses.
But even for some kind of uneven revenue split to work the B12 cannot afford to add anyone. There simply isn't any more to split. Texas and Oklahoma will get their share, meaning it's the little 8 who would have to fork over money, even if a couple new schools agreed to a 50% share (which is likely the price of admission). The B12 contract already factors in payouts as if their were 12 schools, it will not increase even $1 if schools are added. This is a dead end. No G5 adds anywhere near enough to bother. You have to bring >$40m per year in media value, and nobody does, and nobody is even close, as witness the BYU, AAC and MWC contract levels, which are 1/5th to 1/7th that.
As for Memphis, they are an academic abomination which DQs them every bit as much as it eliminates Boise State from consideration. Both were denied a Rose in the B12 expansion farce, showing that the Presidents and Chancellors of the B12 do have limits on the academic side.
Contraction is more likely than expansion.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - Hokie Mark - 03-05-2020 03:48 PM
(03-05-2020 01:05 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: The B12 is either going to go to uneven revenue sharing, where Texas and Oklahoma get an extra 1/2 share compare to the little 8 (e.g., a $40m per school pay out would translate to $36.364m for the little-8 and $54.545m for UT and OU) and control of their 3rd tier rights in order for them to keep pace with the SEC and B1G, and for the little-8 to at least stay in the ball park of the ACC in revenue, or else Oklahoma leaves for either the SEC or B1G, and the revenue collapses.
But even for some kind of uneven revenue split to work the B12 cannot afford to add anyone. There simply isn't any more to split. Texas and Oklahoma will get their share, meaning it's the little 8 who would have to fork over money, even if a couple new schools agreed to a 50% share (which is likely the price of admission). The B12 contract already factors in payouts as if their were 12 schools, it will not increase even $1 if schools are added. This is a dead end. No G5 adds anywhere near enough to bother. You have to bring >$40m per year in media value, and nobody does, and nobody is even close, as witness the BYU, AAC and MWC contract levels, which are 1/5th to 1/7th that.
As for Memphis, they are an academic abomination which DQs them every bit as much as it eliminates Boise State from consideration. Both were denied a Rose in the B12 expansion farce, showing that the Presidents and Chancellors of the B12 do have limits on the academic side.
Contraction is more likely than expansion.
Now I COULD see a scheduling agreement between the Big XII and the ACC.
The ACC has 14 teams - but 5 play Notre Dame every year, leaving 9.
The Big XII has 10 teams - up to 9 of them could play the remaining ACC teams.
(I assume that Clemson would opt out, but the other ACC teams might consider it).
Possible matchups:
WVU vs. BC, Syracuse, Pitt, VT in a rotation (duh)
Texas, OU, TCU, OSU, TTech vs. Miami, FSU, UNC, NC State, UVA, VT (when not playing WVU), etc.
Baylor, Kansas, K-State, Iowa St vs. Duke, Wake Forest, Pitt, Syracuse and BC (when not playing WVU)
I'm not sure which group Georgia Tech would want - or if they'd simply opt out too.
Something like this was rumored back in 2013 (with Notre Dame also playing one Big XII team per year):
![[Image: ACC+ND+B12.JPG]](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UiraCpivRqM/UV7EEFpcUDI/AAAAAAAAGek/m9UuF1n591Y/s1600/ACC+ND+B12.JPG)
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2013/04/rumored-accndbig12-scheduling-agreement.html
The big question: how well could such a thing be monetized?
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - utpotts - 03-05-2020 04:05 PM
(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.
XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
AAC (Rice, UAB, Army, ODU)
MAC (Marshall, App St)
CUSA (Georgia St, Georgia So, Troy, Louisiana, Ark State, TX State)
This would leave the AAC at 12, MAC at 14 and CUSA at 16. It totally eliminates the SBC as a viable conference, reducing it the G5 to a G4.
Then the 5-2-1 then has a G4 spot and a 4 way revenue split.
People are forgetting CUSA could swallow the SBC if they have enough openings. Fine with 14 they may do 16 or 18 to suck all the value out.
None of this will happen just like the Athens County Airport.........
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - MidknightWhiskey - 03-05-2020 04:43 PM
(03-05-2020 12:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.
XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
You realize those four would bring zero new money to the Big 12, they would just be more mouths to feed, right? The Big 12 has.
UCF & Cincinnati would bring a lot of value. Houston wont get a look bc of how many Texas schools they already have and Memphis wont bc of academics. IMO UCF & Cincy are the Big 12's best available adds with UCF & USF right behind that if they want to go all in on a Florida foothold.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - schmolik - 03-05-2020 05:08 PM
(03-05-2020 12:39 PM)Mestophalies Wrote: I will throw this out for debate.
If ESPN really wanted a Big12/Pac12 merger, then the Big12 has to iniciate it. The problem is in the numbers (Number of teams and distance of travel). To eleviate that problem, ESPN could make an arrangement elevating the AAC to a Power Conference. This is how they may do it.
Add WVa, Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. to the AAC. this gives the AAC 14 FB members and makes them equal with the ACC. Now the remaining Big12 7 can take 7 Pac12 members and creat a Power Conference akin to the B1G and the SEC. All these schools win as does ESPN.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. would be ok as both remain Power Conference members and they can still play each other every year. The same could be said for the Kansas schools. WVa would be happy because they remain in a Power Conference and they get conference mates within driving distance.
So you're basically telling West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State to move from the Big 12 to the AAC? Those schools would tell you to go screw yourself ... unless you paid them enough so it would be worth their while. If ESPN did that, are they winning? How much money would ESPN have to pay to these schools to get them to move (essentially they'd have to pay the AAC more to make sure 1/14 of the shares are greater than 1/10 of the shares of the Big 12 is now). So they are paying the AAC more than they're paying the Big 12 just to get three schools out of a conference they don't want? Is it worth it to them? What would their ratings be? The AAC's ratings are probably better with three new states and better caliber programs but I don't see that much difference in the ratings. I'm not really planning on watching West Virginia-Central Florida or Kansas State-Cincinnati. If this is a power conference along with the Big Ten, SEC, and your Big 12/Pac 12 merger, no doubt the AAC would be #4. If ESPN has to pay the AAC big bucks to get everyone to fall in line, they might as well just let everyone stay put and pay the Big 12 and Pac 12 separately. Their goal is to have a Big 12/Pac 12 merger and not have to pay for a second conference.
If there really is a Pac 12/Big 12 merger, one of the two conferences could pull a "Catholic 7" maneuver and break free and keep the name, leaving the undesirables behind, then add members from the other conference. This also allows them to keep their NCAA men's basketball automatic bid. In your scenario, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Baylor would be the 7 and they would then invite Pac-12 members.
Obviously the other scenario would be a group of Pac-12 schools doing the same but chances are only Oregon State and Washington State would be left behind as you're probably not leaving out any California schools, Arizona State brings the Phoenix market, and Colorado and Utah bring unique states. Is there really any point for the Pac-12 to do this to just drop two schools? They might as well just stay intact and invite Texas/Oklahoma and any other schools Texas wants to keep them happy. A "Pac-16" would be the largest P5 conference (or would be P4) but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
We can talk about ESPN (or FOX) can do whatever they want when it comes to conference realignment but it is still the conferences and the universities that have to decide if it makes sense (and as I always say, cents) to make moves. We might think Washington State is dead weight to the Pac-12, ESPN might, but that doesn't mean the Pac-12 will just dump them.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - whittx - 03-05-2020 05:09 PM
(03-05-2020 04:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:(03-05-2020 12:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.
XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
You realize those four would bring zero new money to the Big 12, they would just be more mouths to feed, right? The Big 12 has.
UCF & Cincinnati would bring a lot of value. Houston wont get a look bc of how many Texas schools they already have and Memphis wont bc of academics. IMO UCF & Cincy are the Big 12's best available adds with UCF & USF right behind that if they want to go all in on a Florida foothold.
Army wouldn't come into the American as an all sports entry and FAU has more upside than ODU.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - Mestophalies - 03-05-2020 05:36 PM
(03-05-2020 05:08 PM)schmolik Wrote:(03-05-2020 12:39 PM)Mestophalies Wrote: I will throw this out for debate.
If ESPN really wanted a Big12/Pac12 merger, then the Big12 has to iniciate it. The problem is in the numbers (Number of teams and distance of travel). To eleviate that problem, ESPN could make an arrangement elevating the AAC to a Power Conference. This is how they may do it.
Add WVa, Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. to the AAC. this gives the AAC 14 FB members and makes them equal with the ACC. Now the remaining Big12 7 can take 7 Pac12 members and creat a Power Conference akin to the B1G and the SEC. All these schools win as does ESPN.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. would be ok as both remain Power Conference members and they can still play each other every year. The same could be said for the Kansas schools. WVa would be happy because they remain in a Power Conference and they get conference mates within driving distance.
So you're basically telling West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State to move from the Big 12 to the AAC? Those schools would tell you to go screw yourself ... unless you paid them enough so it would be worth their while. If ESPN did that, are they winning? How much money would ESPN have to pay to these schools to get them to move (essentially they'd have to pay the AAC more to make sure 1/14 of the shares are greater than 1/10 of the shares of the Big 12 is now). So they are paying the AAC more than they're paying the Big 12 just to get three schools out of a conference they don't want? Is it worth it to them? What would their ratings be? The AAC's ratings are probably better with three new states and better caliber programs but I don't see that much difference in the ratings. I'm not really planning on watching West Virginia-Central Florida or Kansas State-Cincinnati. If this is a power conference along with the Big Ten, SEC, and your Big 12/Pac 12 merger, no doubt the AAC would be #4. If ESPN has to pay the AAC big bucks to get everyone to fall in line, they might as well just let everyone stay put and pay the Big 12 and Pac 12 separately. Their goal is to have a Big 12/Pac 12 merger and not have to pay for a second conference.
If there really is a Pac 12/Big 12 merger, one of the two conferences could pull a "Catholic 7" maneuver and break free and keep the name, leaving the undesirables behind, then add members from the other conference. This also allows them to keep their NCAA men's basketball automatic bid. In your scenario, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Baylor would be the 7 and they would then invite Pac-12 members.
Obviously the other scenario would be a group of Pac-12 schools doing the same but chances are only Oregon State and Washington State would be left behind as you're probably not leaving out any California schools, Arizona State brings the Phoenix market, and Colorado and Utah bring unique states. Is there really any point for the Pac-12 to do this to just drop two schools? They might as well just stay intact and invite Texas/Oklahoma and any other schools Texas wants to keep them happy. A "Pac-16" would be the largest P5 conference (or would be P4) but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
We can talk about ESPN (or FOX) can do whatever they want when it comes to conference realignment but it is still the conferences and the universities that have to decide if it makes sense (and as I always say, cents) to make moves. We might think Washington State is dead weight to the Pac-12, ESPN might, but that doesn't mean the Pac-12 will just dump them.
Relax None of it will happen. I was just tossing out more nonsense. Nothing will happen just like nothing really happened to PSU for allowing child rape to occure on their property. Hmkay!
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - MidknightWhiskey - 03-05-2020 05:53 PM
(03-05-2020 05:09 PM)whittx Wrote:(03-05-2020 04:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:(03-05-2020 12:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.
XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
You realize those four would bring zero new money to the Big 12, they would just be more mouths to feed, right? The Big 12 has.
UCF & Cincinnati would bring a lot of value. Houston wont get a look bc of how many Texas schools they already have and Memphis wont bc of academics. IMO UCF & Cincy are the Big 12's best available adds with UCF & USF right behind that if they want to go all in on a Florida foothold.
Army wouldn't come into the American as an all sports entry and FAU has more upside than ODU.
Took me way to long to realize you were talking about this from the OP
(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: AAC (Rice, UAB, Army, ODU)
Yes, I agree. Army is content with indy status, if UCF leaves the AAC there's a good chance we're replaced with another Florida program and currently FAU > FIU.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - quo vadis - 03-05-2020 07:22 PM
(03-05-2020 04:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:(03-05-2020 12:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.
XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
You realize those four would bring zero new money to the Big 12, they would just be more mouths to feed, right? The Big 12 has.
UCF & Cincinnati would bring a lot of value. Houston wont get a look bc of how many Texas schools they already have and Memphis wont bc of academics. IMO UCF & Cincy are the Big 12's best available adds with UCF & USF right behind that if they want to go all in on a Florida foothold.
UCF and Cincy bring no value, they would both cost the Big 12 schools lots of money. That's not a shot at them, my USF would also cost the Big 12 lots of money.
There are no G5 schools that are worth anywhere near the $35 million a year in value-added needed to make them worth adding. So the only way any G5 schools will get promoted is if a P5 league is raided such that it must add warm bodies or perish.
Realignment for the next CFP contract - indianasniff - 03-05-2020 08:21 PM
MAC does not need more teams. Drop it
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Realignment for the next CFP contract - owl at the moon - 03-05-2020 08:47 PM
(03-05-2020 12:39 PM)Mestophalies Wrote: I will throw this out for debate.
If ESPN really wanted a Big12/Pac12 merger, then the Big12 has to iniciate it. The problem is in the numbers (Number of teams and distance of travel). To eleviate that problem, ESPN could make an arrangement elevating the AAC to a Power Conference. This is how they may do it.
Add WVa, Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. to the AAC. this gives the AAC 14 FB members and makes them equal with the ACC. Now the remaining Big12 7 can take 7 Pac12 members and creat a Power Conference akin to the B1G and the SEC. All these schools win as does ESPN.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. would be ok as both remain Power Conference members and they can still play each other every year. The same could be said for the Kansas schools. WVa would be happy because they remain in a Power Conference and they get conference mates within driving distance.
Of all of the completely impossible scenarios I’ve ever read on this board,
this is definitely the *most viable* of them all!
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - ken d - 03-05-2020 09:42 PM
(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: People are forgetting CUSA could swallow the SBC if they have enough openings. Fine with 14 they may do 16 or 18 to suck all the value out.
My sense is that the SBC schools are happier where they are than they would be in CUSA. And, they believe (with good reason) that they are growing stronger relative to CUSA. What would be the point of changing conferences now?
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - Kit-Cat - 03-05-2020 11:15 PM
(03-05-2020 09:42 PM)ken d Wrote:(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: People are forgetting CUSA could swallow the SBC if they have enough openings. Fine with 14 they may do 16 or 18 to suck all the value out.
My sense is that the SBC schools are happier where they are than they would be in CUSA. And, they believe (with good reason) that they are growing stronger relative to CUSA. What would be the point of changing conferences now?
That is what a lot of SBC fans will say that after the conference shakeout was said and done they were satisfied with their 10 team configuration.
But in my scenario CUSA and SBC both lose teams and I have 6 of the remaining SBC schools making a move over to separate from ULM and Coastal Carolina. It lets them join up with more geographically friendly programs and create a stronger G4 conference than before.
RE: Realignment for the next CFP contract - Capt Ed - 03-06-2020 07:17 AM
App State and its Sun Belt conference mates are happy where we are. We're moving up in the conference football rankings, we only share revenue ten ways, and our travel costs are acceptable. Plus, I believe there is a lot of respect and even a kinship spirit between schools.
We only see two future opportunities that make sense.
1. We attract two schools from C-USA, Marshall and Southern Miss. and stop.
2. The long predicted mass regional realignment happens.
App State would never join the MAC. We are a southern school, we say a-puh-LATCH-uhn, our number one rival is Georgia Southern, our favorite food group is bar-b-que, our favorite singer is Luke Combs, and Charlotte is home to our largest alumni base.