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+---- Thread: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) (/thread-891203.html)
MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - cleveland - 12-25-2019 09:13 PM
Tough to pick any favorites out of this bunch but there are a couple of trends to keep an eye on.
1) Nearly every team has an 8-man rotation of 10-minute plus players with a big fall-off after that. So injuries can and will be major over the next 16 games.
2) Somewhat related to No. 1 very few teams (Western, OU, Buffalo and Akron) seem intent on developing their freshmen, which leads to the 8-man issue above.
3) As usual 3-guard offenses dominate the league so strong backcourt play will likely be a big factor in the end. Post play, however can't be ignored and most of the better MAC teams are strong at the 4-spot as well.
That said, here's one early thought.
1) Toledo (in part because the MAC West is soft at the bottom).
2) Akron (Zips are deeper than most and have some experience).
3) Buffalo (Bulls are a bit skitzo, but experience/talent still top shelf).
4) Ball St. (Like UT, weak West a plus).
5) Kent (A favorite in the West, a contender in the East).
6) Bowling Green (Injuries have already hit and it shows).
7) Ohio U. (Much better than expected, will decide MAC East winner).
8-12) You choose
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - Kit-Cat - 12-25-2019 11:52 PM
Ohio I guarantee will finish in the Top 12.
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - NIU007 - 12-26-2019 09:53 AM
NIU will be #1. We're just doing a really good job of playing possum during the OOC season.
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - emu steve - 12-26-2019 01:48 PM
No love for EMU????
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - toddjnsn - 12-26-2019 04:04 PM
Quote:No love for EMU????
![[Image: LIMU-EMU-KEN-Dog.png]](https://i.ibb.co/RQm9n11/LIMU-EMU-KEN-Dog.png)
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - Basketball Jones - 12-26-2019 10:08 PM
As a Toledo Fan, I am somewhat optimistic about our prospects heading into the MAC season as our Big 3 (Point Guard Marreon Jackson, Center Luke Knapke and Power Forward Willie Jackson are all playing at very high levels. However, it is our players 4 through 6 (Spencer Littleson, Dylan Alderson and KeShaun Saunders) that leave me with some apprehension as we have not gotten consistent play out of them on a game to game basis so far this season. Combine that with not having our 6-11 Sophomore Post Player, AJ Edu available this season due to injury has left us with very little depth behind Knapke. In this league, if you have a very good point guard and big man, it should serve you well. While the Rockets have both of these ingredients including also having the nation's leading rebounder in Willie Jackson, it is going to be the role players that will determine our fate!
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - emu steve - 12-28-2019 07:01 AM
(12-25-2019 09:13 PM)cleveland Wrote: Tough to pick any favorites out of this bunch but there are a couple of trends to keep an eye on.
1) Nearly every team has an 8-man rotation of 10-minute plus players with a big fall-off after that. So injuries can and will be major over the next 16 games.
2) Somewhat related to No. 1 very few teams (Western, OU, Buffalo and Akron) seem intent on developing their freshmen, which leads to the 8-man issue above.
3) As usual 3-guard offenses dominate the league so strong backcourt play will likely be a big factor in the end. Post play, however can't be ignored and most of the better MAC teams are strong at the 4-spot as well.
That said, here's one early thought.
1) Toledo (in part because the MAC West is soft at the bottom).
2) Akron (Zips are deeper than most and have some experience).
3) Buffalo (Bulls are a bit skitzo, but experience/talent still top shelf).
4) Ball St. (Like UT, weak West a plus).
5) Kent (A favorite in the West, a contender in the East).
6) Bowling Green (Injuries have already hit and it shows).
7) Ohio U. (Much better than expected, will decide MAC East winner).
8-12) You choose
If EMU is not in the top 7 damn the MAC must be good this year.
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - Dwight - 12-28-2019 07:08 AM
In trying to predict the MAC favorite, we are missing a very important piece of information - whether Bowling Green's Justin Turner will be healthy. He pulled a hamstring over a month ago, and BG is saying nothing about his status. With Turner, Bowling Green seems like the favorite to me. If Turner is done, then the next question is whether Buffalo is going to put things together. The Bulls have a lot of new pieces this year, and they have been very inconsistent. Based solely on non-conference performance, Akron and Kent State are the best teams in the league.
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - MaddDawgz02 - 12-28-2019 10:31 PM
My power rankings through 12/28 games, along with expected wins in conference season
1. Kent State, 12
2. Bowling Green, 11.2
3. Ball State, 11
4. Buffalo, 10
5. Toledo, 10.2
6. Ohio, 10.1
7. Akron, 9.2
8. Central Michigan, 9.1
9. Eastern Michigan, 7.2
10. Miami-OH, 6.6
11. Northern Illinois, 7
12. Western Michigan, 4.4
My projected top 4 seeds
1. Kent State
2. Bowling Green
3. Ball State
4. Toledo
3 Most Difficult Conference Schedules
1. Miami-OH
2. Buffalo
3. Western Michigan
3 Easiest Conference Schedules
1. Ball State
2. Central Michigan
3. Toledo
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - Rocket_Fanatic - 12-29-2019 01:02 AM
Toledo is not top 3 in the conference...not yet. They proved nothing in OOC play
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - emu steve - 12-29-2019 07:58 AM
EMU's OOC was mixed despite a very good record.
We beat 3 non-D-i teams and we were 6 - 0 at home or neutral vs. mid-majors.
Struggled badly on the road vs. UC-Irvine, MSU and UNLV.
What does that suggest? I'm not really sure. My guess is that we look like an 8, 9 or 10 win team, mostly winning at home and maybe 2 or 3 on the road.
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - kreed5120 - 12-29-2019 12:09 PM
Below are the NET rankings as of this morning.
73 - Akron
82 - Kent State
124 - Ball St
137 - Ohio
156 - Toledo
162 - Buffalo
181 - BGSU
192 - Miami
210 - EMU
220 - NIU
231 - CMU
250 - WMU
I'm in agreement that Akron & Kent have looked the best during OOC play. I still see it as a 5 horse race as Toledo, Buffalo, and BGSU each still have the talent to compete and win the MAC. It's just a matter of them finding ways to consistently play at their potential. Also, I noticed 6 out of the top 8 teams are in the MAC East. That should help Toledo's chances slightly.
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - cleveland - 12-29-2019 12:34 PM
(12-29-2019 12:09 PM)kreed5120 Wrote: Below are the NET rankings as of this morning.
73 - Akron
82 - Kent State
124 - Ball St
137 - Ohio
156 - Toledo
162 - Buffalo
181 - BGSU
192 - Miami
210 - EMU
220 - NIU
231 - CMU
250 - WMU
I'm in agreement that Akron & Kent have looked the best during OOC play. I still see it as a 5 horse race as Toledo, Buffalo, and BGSU each still have the talent to compete and win the MAC. It's just a matter of them finding ways to consistently play at their potential. Also, I noticed 6 out of the top 8 teams are in the MAC East. That should help Toledo's chances slightly.
AGREE ... it looks like a 5-team race. Perhaps 4-5 losses win the league, unless a MAC West team (Toledo/Ball) has strong crossover performance vs. MAC East. Maybe 5-6 losses get a bye? Haven't looked at the skeds, ... who do Toledo/BSU play twice from the MAC East???
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - MaddDawgz02 - 12-29-2019 01:21 PM
Just so hard to tell right now. Akron has not beaten a quality team unless you count Tulane. The MAC will be rougher tha their soft non conf schedule. I'd put the Zips right in the middle of the pack
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - MaddDawgz02 - 12-29-2019 01:31 PM
(12-28-2019 07:01 AM)emu steve Wrote:(12-25-2019 09:13 PM)cleveland Wrote: Tough to pick any favorites out of this bunch but there are a couple of trends to keep an eye on.
1) Nearly every team has an 8-man rotation of 10-minute plus players with a big fall-off after that. So injuries can and will be major over the next 16 games.
2) Somewhat related to No. 1 very few teams (Western, OU, Buffalo and Akron) seem intent on developing their freshmen, which leads to the 8-man issue above.
3) As usual 3-guard offenses dominate the league so strong backcourt play will likely be a big factor in the end. Post play, however can't be ignored and most of the better MAC teams are strong at the 4-spot as well.
That said, here's one early thought.
1) Toledo (in part because the MAC West is soft at the bottom).
2) Akron (Zips are deeper than most and have some experience).
3) Buffalo (Bulls are a bit skitzo, but experience/talent still top shelf).
4) Ball St. (Like UT, weak West a plus).
5) Kent (A favorite in the West, a contender in the East).
6) Bowling Green (Injuries have already hit and it shows).
7) Ohio U. (Much better than expected, will decide MAC East winner).
8-12) You choose
If EMU is not in the top 7 damn the MAC must be good this year.
The problem with EMU, when they go up against average to above average teams they have to play absolute shutdown stellar defense with how inefficient the offense is. They are capable of playing of that high level defense, just a matter on how often you can count on it to happen
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - MaddDawgz02 - 12-29-2019 01:34 PM
Honestly I'd say the only teams you can really count out right now are Miami, NIU, EMU, WMU
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - kreed5120 - 12-29-2019 02:51 PM
(12-29-2019 01:21 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: Just so hard to tell right now. Akron has not beaten a quality team unless you count Tulane. The MAC will be rougher tha their soft non conf schedule. I'd put the Zips right in the middle of the pack
Akron also beat all those teams pretty convincingly while Buffalo, Toledo, & BGSU all have lost to teams that are equally as bad, if not worse, than the teams Akron has beaten. I don't necessarily think Akron has the highest ceiling, but they do seem to have the highest floor. Even in their 3 losses (those 3 opponents have a combined 3 losses) they didn't really look bad considering the quality of the opponents they were facing.
People seem to look too much into wins, but overlook losses. If Buffalo goes to Kent to get a win then turns around and loses to WMU at home that pretty much negates the Kent win entirely. That's pretty much exactly what they did by beating DePaul on the road then turning around and losing to Army at home. The key this season is protect your home court and beat the teams you should beat on the road. Given how balanced the MAC is, I wouldn't be surprised to see 13 wins being enough to win it.
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - MaddDawgz02 - 12-29-2019 02:56 PM
(12-29-2019 02:51 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:(12-29-2019 01:21 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: Just so hard to tell right now. Akron has not beaten a quality team unless you count Tulane. The MAC will be rougher tha their soft non conf schedule. I'd put the Zips right in the middle of the pack
Akron also beat all those teams pretty convincingly while Buffalo, Toledo, & BGSU all have lost to teams that are equally as bad, if not worse, than the teams Akron has beaten. I don't necessarily think Akron has the highest ceiling, but they do seem to have the highest floor. Even in their 3 losses (those 3 opponents have a combined 3 losses) they didn't really look bad considering the quality of the opponents they were facing.
People seem to look too much into wins, but overlook losses. If Buffalo goes to Kent to get a win then turns around and loses to WMU at home that pretty much negates the Kent win entirely. That's pretty much exactly what they did by beating DePaul on the road then turning around and losing to Army at home. The key this season is protect your home court and beat the teams you should beat on the road. Given how balanced the MAC is, I wouldn't be surprised to see 13 wins being enough to win it.
There is no doubt this year 13 wins will likely get you a 1 seed, possibly 12 wins will do it. People get too secure with their teams beating up on bad competition like many MAC teams have done. Right now I have Kent as 1 seed with 12 wins and 7 other teams between 9 and 11 wins
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - cleveland - 12-29-2019 03:25 PM
(12-29-2019 02:56 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:(12-29-2019 02:51 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:(12-29-2019 01:21 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: Just so hard to tell right now. Akron has not beaten a quality team unless you count Tulane. The MAC will be rougher tha their soft non conf schedule. I'd put the Zips right in the middle of the pack
Akron also beat all those teams pretty convincingly while Buffalo, Toledo, & BGSU all have lost to teams that are equally as bad, if not worse, than the teams Akron has beaten. I don't necessarily think Akron has the highest ceiling, but they do seem to have the highest floor. Even in their 3 losses (those 3 opponents have a combined 3 losses) they didn't really look bad considering the quality of the opponents they were facing.
People seem to look too much into wins, but overlook losses. If Buffalo goes to Kent to get a win then turns around and loses to WMU at home that pretty much negates the Kent win entirely. That's pretty much exactly what they did by beating DePaul on the road then turning around and losing to Army at home. The key this season is protect your home court and beat the teams you should beat on the road. Given how balanced the MAC is, I wouldn't be surprised to see 13 wins being enough to win it.
There is no doubt this year 13 wins will likely get you a 1 seed, possibly 12 wins will do it. People get too secure with their teams beating up on bad competition like many MAC teams have done. Right now I have Kent as 1 seed with 12 wins and 7 other teams between 9 and 11 wins
Until further notice on Turner's injury, I'd say BG is still the team to beat and figure 4/5 losses win the league and 5/6 losses earn a bye.
As usual, probably can't have more than 1 home loss to have any chance to win it all, and certainly can't afford more than one upset to a bottom feeder, if that.
Also think this is the year a 4-5-6 seed has a real chance in the MAC Tournament, if healthy and get a good draw.
Another thing ... MAC East winner will like have to get at least five wins in round robins between (BG-UB-Ak-KSU) which will not be an easy task. Even with that, then getting a split with OU is no sure bet, either. Indeed, MAC East winner will likely have to sweep the Bobcats to avoid some sort of tie-breaker .... or to win one.
RE: MAC play about to start, Who's No. 1 (or 2 or 3) - kreed5120 - 12-29-2019 03:42 PM
(12-29-2019 03:25 PM)cleveland Wrote:(12-29-2019 02:56 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:(12-29-2019 02:51 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:(12-29-2019 01:21 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: Just so hard to tell right now. Akron has not beaten a quality team unless you count Tulane. The MAC will be rougher tha their soft non conf schedule. I'd put the Zips right in the middle of the pack
Akron also beat all those teams pretty convincingly while Buffalo, Toledo, & BGSU all have lost to teams that are equally as bad, if not worse, than the teams Akron has beaten. I don't necessarily think Akron has the highest ceiling, but they do seem to have the highest floor. Even in their 3 losses (those 3 opponents have a combined 3 losses) they didn't really look bad considering the quality of the opponents they were facing.
People seem to look too much into wins, but overlook losses. If Buffalo goes to Kent to get a win then turns around and loses to WMU at home that pretty much negates the Kent win entirely. That's pretty much exactly what they did by beating DePaul on the road then turning around and losing to Army at home. The key this season is protect your home court and beat the teams you should beat on the road. Given how balanced the MAC is, I wouldn't be surprised to see 13 wins being enough to win it.
There is no doubt this year 13 wins will likely get you a 1 seed, possibly 12 wins will do it. People get too secure with their teams beating up on bad competition like many MAC teams have done. Right now I have Kent as 1 seed with 12 wins and 7 other teams between 9 and 11 wins
Until further notice on Turner's injury, I'd say BG is still the team to beat and figure 4/5 losses win the league and 5/6 losses earn a bye.
As usual, probably can't have more than 1 home loss to have any chance to win it all, and certainly can't afford more than one upset to a bottom feeder, if that.
Also think this is the year a 4-5-6 seed has a real chance in the MAC Tournament, if healthy and get a good draw.
I think this is particularly true if Turner misses a chunk of games at the start of MAC play. It's hard for me to place BGSU as I don't know when Turner will return. With him I'd have them as the favorites. Without him they've looked pretty bad.