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Massey win projections - UofToledoFans - 10-30-2019 12:19 PM 89 Miami (6-6) 37% at Ohio 95% vs. BGSUcks 99% vs. Akron 43% @ Ball State 90 Ohio (8-4) 63% vs. Miami 60% vs. WMU 85% @ BGSUcks 97% @ Akron 93 WMU (6-6) 60% vs. Ball State 40% @ Ohio 46% @ NIU 95 Ball State (7-5) 31% @ WMU 71% vs. CMU 57% @ Kent 57% Miami 103 Toledo (7-5) 72% vs. Kent 58% vs. NIU 29% @ UB 40% @ CMU 104 EMU (7-5) 55% vs. UB 94% @ Akron 35% @ NIU 72% vs. Kent 105 Buffalo (7-5) 45% @ EMU 58% @ Kent 71% vs. Toledo 94% vs. BGSUcks 107 NIU (5-7) 47% @ CMU 42% @ Toledo 65% vs. EMU 54% vs. WMU 108 CMU (7-5) 53% vs. NIU 29% @ BSU 60% vs. Toledo 114 Kent (3-9) 28% @ Toledo 42% vs. UB 43% vs. BSU 28% @ EMU 125 BGSUcks (3-9) 87% vs. Akron 129 Akron (0-12) RE: Massey win projections - BobcatEngineer - 10-30-2019 12:51 PM Minor correction... But I think the first game under Ohio should be vs. Miami instead of Ball State Quote:90 Ohio (8-4) RE: Massey win projections - NIU007 - 10-30-2019 01:21 PM 5-7 looks about right for us at this point. Really hoping we don't do worse than that. RE: Massey win projections - UofToledoFans - 10-30-2019 02:04 PM (10-30-2019 12:51 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote: Minor correction... But I think the first game under Ohio should be vs. Miami instead of Ball State FIXED RE: Massey win projections - DICK - 10-30-2019 03:34 PM I don't have any problem with the % estimates of the individual games, but the better estimate would be to add the 4 percentages up to get a total number of estimated wins. Then a total of 300% in 4 games would mean a likely 3 wins, 200% would mean a likely 2 wins. For example. Ball State has 57, 57, 31, and 71, which adds up to 216, which gives a most likely result of 2 wins, not the 3 which you are predicting. Ohio has a total of 305 which would be a most likely result of 3 wins,not 4. Miami has 274 which would be a most likely result of 3 wins, not 2. All 3 of those would be different estimated wins totals. That is actually the way Vegas figures estimated win totals for a season, and is more accurate than just saying Ball State has two games with a 57% chance of winning so that is 2 likely wins when mathematically it is closer to 1 likely win than 2. RE: Massey win projections - UofToledoFans - 10-30-2019 04:18 PM (10-30-2019 03:34 PM)DICK Wrote: I don't have any problem with the % estimates of the individual games, but the better estimate would be to add the 4 percentages up to get a total number of estimated wins. Then a total of 300% in 4 games would mean a likely 3 wins, 200% would mean a likely 2 wins. For example. Ball State has 57, 57, 31, and 71, which adds up to 216, which gives a most likely result of 2 wins, not the 3 which you are predicting. Ohio has a total of 305 which would be a most likely result of 3 wins,not 4. Miami has 274 which would be a most likely result of 3 wins, not 2. All 3 of those would be different estimated wins totals.But then lots of teams are playing four games without either team being granted the win. If you were a 61% winner in all 4 games, that's 244%... 2 wins. While 39% for the opposing teams Is 156%, and that's one win. Who wins the last game? Realistically if you play 4 games, 400% is impossible, therefore no one can win all 4. 57% x 2 games is 32.5% to win em both. While for the opposing team it's 18.5% to do the same thing. So it's still likely 2 wins for the favorite. RE: Massey win projections - Bronco'14 - 10-30-2019 04:40 PM I think the Broncos should be favored over NIU, and vs BSU should be more of a toss-up. 6-6 reasonable, but I think the team has talent to snag 2 of the 3. BSU favored 70% over CMU too high. That game could go either way. RE: Massey win projections - DICK - 10-30-2019 06:20 PM (10-30-2019 04:18 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:(10-30-2019 03:34 PM)DICK Wrote: I don't have any problem with the % estimates of the individual games, but the better estimate would be to add the 4 percentages up to get a total number of estimated wins. Then a total of 300% in 4 games would mean a likely 3 wins, 200% would mean a likely 2 wins. For example. Ball State has 57, 57, 31, and 71, which adds up to 216, which gives a most likely result of 2 wins, not the 3 which you are predicting. Ohio has a total of 305 which would be a most likely result of 3 wins,not 4. Miami has 274 which would be a most likely result of 3 wins, not 2. All 3 of those would be different estimated wins totals.But then lots of teams are playing four games without either team being granted the win. In your example, 1.56 rounds to 2, not 1. Vegas uses half numbers, so they would call those two teams 2 and a half and 1 and a half, and you could bet over or under. In your 400% example, since we are rounding to the nearest whole number, you would have to have at least 350% to round up to 4. Again Vegas uses halves, so you might get a 3 and a half. Look at Ohio's numbers, 3 is a far more likely total, those percentages only add up to 305. RE: Massey win projections - DICK - 10-30-2019 06:33 PM Your last statement 57% x 2 = 32.5% chance of winning both games is correct. That means that it is UNLIKELY that they would win both games. 67.5% of the time they would not win both games. That is why 2 is the wrong number for expected wins. When you multiplied .43 time .43 to get your 18.5 %, please understand that that is the likelihood of winning both games. If you want to know how many games they would be likely to win, you just add together the probablility of each game, 43% plus 43% = 86%, which would round up to 1 RE: Massey win projections - UofToledoFans - 10-31-2019 12:02 AM (10-30-2019 06:33 PM)DICK Wrote: Your last statement 57% x 2 = 32.5% chance of winning both games is correct. That means that it is UNLIKELY that they would win both games. 67.5% of the time they would not win both games. That is why 2 is the wrong number for expected wins. But just look at the single game numbers to tell me if a team is favored. Ohio over Miami 2 games in a row at 63%, means in the long run 63/100 times Ohio wins. The single game projection is still 63% the second game (assuming they replay at the same place). Not anything higher, Because they already won the first game. Basically Ohio wins 30-23 when they are favored 63% by Massey. There is still a 63% they win the next game. Not now 62% because in a 100 game sample they already got a win. It's 63% every time. Football doesn't really work on this principal because it's 1 game sample sizes anyways. But if a team has two games at a certain percentage in a row, the second game is not the added inverse of game one and game two of 86% in your example. RE: Massey win projections - wmubroncopilot - 10-31-2019 09:43 AM (10-31-2019 12:02 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:(10-30-2019 06:33 PM)DICK Wrote: Your last statement 57% x 2 = 32.5% chance of winning both games is correct. That means that it is UNLIKELY that they would win both games. 67.5% of the time they would not win both games. That is why 2 is the wrong number for expected wins. You can't just assume they're going to win the first game because it's at 63% though. IF they do, then of course the win projection changes. You're simply wrong on this, mathematically speaking. It's why it's so rare to go undefeated, even when a team is the favorite every game. RE: Massey win projections - Bronco'14 - 10-31-2019 06:49 PM Everyone but NIU in the West sits at .500 or better. My guess is a team or 2 in the West are going to really struggle down the stretch. Will it be CMU or BSU, who fall back down to last year? Will it be WMU, who has a tough home game and tougher road games? Will it be UT or EMU, who need to show more consistency? RE: Massey win projections - CMichFan - 10-31-2019 10:03 PM (10-31-2019 06:49 PM)Bronco14 Wrote: Everyone but NIU in the West sits at .500 or better. My guess is a team or 2 in the West are going to really struggle down the stretch. It will be interesting. For CMU, 2 of our last 3 are at home, where we haven't lost yet, so I'm hoping that means at least two more wins. The BSU game for sure will be a toughie, especially the way we've played on the road this season. |