(02-08-2019 11:05 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Houston caught a break this year in terms of conference scheduling (for the league title), they don't have to play @Wichita or @memphis.

(02-08-2019 11:28 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Not playing USF or Temple twice is a resume killer for UC in terms of quality win opportunities but a potential savior in terms of playing for a league title.

Need to beat Houston. Without a win on Sunday there is nothing UC can do between now and the rematch to lock in a tournament bid. UCF might be closer to 9 or 10 league wins than an NCAA bid. Everyone is just another ok win.

I can’t see UC getting a seed above without beating Houston at least once.

(02-08-2019 11:49 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  Just being honest here... I doubt we win at Houston Sunday. And you know what? It's OK. We'll even the score with them on senior day and then battle it out for seeding in the AAC tournament.

We're freaking 20-3! We are NOT on the bubble. Barring an epic meltdown, we will be in the tournament. It's just a matter of how and where.

[ATTENTION: I'm getting out in front of this "epic meltdown" statement by saying... yeah, I know. Save the smart a$$ Nevada jokes]

(02-08-2019 12:01 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 11:49 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  Just being honest here... I doubt we win at Houston Sunday. And you know what? It's OK. We'll even the score with them on senior day and then battle it out for seeding in the AAC tournament.

We're freaking 20-3! We are NOT on the bubble. Barring an epic meltdown, we will be in the tournament. It's just a matter of how and where.

[ATTENTION: I'm getting out in front of this "epic meltdown" statement by saying... yeah, I know. Save the smart a$$ Nevada jokes]

UC has a really odd resume. Poor non-conference SOS, good overall metrics, one bad loss, and a lot of ok wins. It’s the type of resume that always gets crushed in seeding or left out of the tournament. The better Temple and Ole Miss do the better UC looks. Basically they need to be tournament teams. Beating Houston at least once erases the lack of top level win. It really is the difference between bubble and safely in.

(02-08-2019 12:03 PM)ucbandguy Wrote:  On the UC - Memphis telecast last night, the announcers talked about the in conference home vs away record. I don't remember the exact #s, but it demonstrated just how hard it is to win on the road in conference. (any conference)

My immediate take away was that a big percentage of the AAC in conference road wins came from 2 teams - UC and Houston (3-1 each before last night, 4-1 each now.)

UCF 2-2
Temple 3-2
USF 2-3
memphis 1-4
UCONN 0-5
SMU 1-4
WSU 1-4
Tulsa - 0-5
ECU 0-6
Tulane winless in conf

It is a bit of a pain to look this up and compile it. However, once you look at it, and realize that everybody beats Tulane on the road, and most everyone beats ECU on the road (ouch), it really points out just how hard it is to win on the road in conference everywhere else.

(02-08-2019 12:15 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 12:01 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 11:49 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  Just being honest here... I doubt we win at Houston Sunday. And you know what? It's OK. We'll even the score with them on senior day and then battle it out for seeding in the AAC tournament.

We're freaking 20-3! We are NOT on the bubble. Barring an epic meltdown, we will be in the tournament. It's just a matter of how and where.

[ATTENTION: I'm getting out in front of this "epic meltdown" statement by saying... yeah, I know. Save the smart a$$ Nevada jokes]

UC has a really odd resume. Poor non-conference SOS, good overall metrics, one bad loss, and a lot of ok wins. It’s the type of resume that always gets crushed in seeding or left out of the tournament. The better Temple and Ole Miss do the better UC looks. Basically they need to be tournament teams. Beating Houston at least once erases the lack of top level win. It really is the difference between bubble and safely in.

I don't buy the poor non-conf OOS. Last I saw it was like 48th or something like that (I guess it depends on the metric). I think the committee often looks at who you play and where. We played very few cup cakes, we played 2 good road games and 2 neutral court games. The teams were solid, but didn't live up to the hype. The committee penalizes teams that don't leave home and that feast on cupcakes.

(02-08-2019 02:03 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  Can I ask where you see 182? Is that a certain metric. The one I see is 56, which is the RPI, but I know that is not used, though that is the only SOS one I see quoted usually. Does anyone know if the NET has its own SOS rating and what those are?

I still find it hard to believe we would be one of the teams punished for our schedule as we checked all the boxes (The committee always states that they do a real deep dive on that and that teams that don't leave home and fill up on cupcakes will be punished). I guess since NC Central didn't live up to their usually good non-conf rating and WMU stinks, we wound up with some boat anchors and have 5 cupcakes. Crazy how so many of our opponents were ranked so highly pre-season and wound up failing to even come close to expectations.

(02-08-2019 12:49 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 12:15 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 12:01 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 11:49 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  Just being honest here... I doubt we win at Houston Sunday. And you know what? It's OK. We'll even the score with them on senior day and then battle it out for seeding in the AAC tournament.

We're freaking 20-3! We are NOT on the bubble. Barring an epic meltdown, we will be in the tournament. It's just a matter of how and where.

[ATTENTION: I'm getting out in front of this "epic meltdown" statement by saying... yeah, I know. Save the smart a$$ Nevada jokes]

UC has a really odd resume. Poor non-conference SOS, good overall metrics, one bad loss, and a lot of ok wins. It’s the type of resume that always gets crushed in seeding or left out of the tournament. The better Temple and Ole Miss do the better UC looks. Basically they need to be tournament teams. Beating Houston at least once erases the lack of top level win. It really is the difference between bubble and safely in.

I don't buy the poor non-conf OOS. Last I saw it was like 48th or something like that (I guess it depends on the metric). I think the committee often looks at who you play and where. We played very few cup cakes, we played 2 good road games and 2 neutral court games. The teams were solid, but didn't live up to the hype. The committee penalizes teams that don't leave home and that feast on cupcakes.

It’s 182 and falling. WMU is winless in the MAC, SC State is 2-20, Xavier is taking on losses as the sit in last place, Milwaukee junk, NC Central yuck, and Pine Bluff awful. Last weekend just about everyone lost.

(02-08-2019 02:13 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 02:03 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  Can I ask where you see 182? Is that a certain metric. The one I see is 56, which is the RPI, but I know that is not used, though that is the only SOS one I see quoted usually. Does anyone know if the NET has its own SOS rating and what those are?

I still find it hard to believe we would be one of the teams punished for our schedule as we checked all the boxes (The committee always states that they do a real deep dive on that and that teams that don't leave home and fill up on cupcakes will be punished). I guess since NC Central didn't live up to their usually good non-conf rating and WMU stinks, we wound up with some boat anchors and have 5 cupcakes. Crazy how so many of our opponents were ranked so highly pre-season and wound up failing to even come close to expectations.

Here are the most recent team sheets:

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Games%20through%20Feb.%207,%202019.pdf

UC's nonconference SOS via NET is 189 right now. That's not great, but honestly it's not the kind of nonconference SOS teams are generally penalized for. You have to be closer to 300 for it to be a big debilitating factor. Of course, the other result is UC just doesn't have as many quad1 / quad2 wins, which is a factor. UC's fine though baring a collapse down the stretch. Hell win Sunday and a protected (top 4) seed is in play.