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+----- Thread: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra (/thread-867595.html)
MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - Tribal - 01-03-2019 10:03 AM
Still 3 games away but want to get this info out now. Jan 10th at 7pm is our next home game.
Come out January 10th to the Shoeless Showdown! Bring a NEW pair of shoes (child or adult) and watch William & Mary basketball take on Hofstra University for FREE!
https://t.co/1ApXtm5Poh https://t.co/HP71lt5uam
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
RE: MBB - Game 16 Hofstra - TribePride91 - 01-03-2019 03:36 PM
(01-03-2019 10:03 AM)Tribal Wrote: Still 3 games away but want to get this info out now. Jan 10th at 7pm is our next home game.
Come out January 10th to the Shoeless Showdown! Bring a NEW pair of shoes (child or adult) and watch William & Mary basketball take on Hofstra University for FREE!
https://t.co/1ApXtm5Poh https://t.co/HP71lt5uam
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
A great cause. Also, the game usually involves players on both teams wearing out their shoes with all the offense and no defense between the teams. Wonder if Crazy Joe will coach in his socks?? Hofstra definitely appears to have a very strong team this year.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - Tribeheart - 01-06-2019 08:18 PM
Hofstra only played seven players in their rotation against Northeastern on Saturday. Wright-Foreman played the full 40 minutes and took 30 shots for his 42 pts. Important to make him work and play defense on Thursday, so, we can get into his legs, as well as, expose him to fouls. Hopefully, there is some hangover with his SC Top 10 shot/win. Another case of questioning why Pusica took a contested 3 pt shot prior to that, when Northeastern only needed a two point shot for the win. Not smart basketball, and they paid the price with the ball bouncing out to Wright-Foreman.
Will be an interesting matchup for Knight with Purdue transfer Taylor. His game is not elegant, but he gets the dirty work done. Foul situation, either way, may dictate the game outcome.
Expect this will be another memorable game in the Hofstra/W&M series of memorable games. We've got to protect our homecourt.
Go Tribe!
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - bubbadog57 - 01-08-2019 02:07 PM
My guess is we'll see Chase on Wright-Foreman. If so, will be a big test for our precocious freshman.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - TribePride91 - 01-08-2019 02:22 PM
(01-08-2019 02:07 PM)bubbadog57 Wrote: My guess is we'll see Chase on Wright-Foreman. If so, will be a big test for our precocious freshman.
Our best hope might be if JWF cannot lift his arm due to it still being sore from all of his FG attempts on Saturday. Definitely not looking forward to facing him or Pusica.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - tribeinexile - 01-08-2019 02:46 PM
(01-08-2019 02:22 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:(01-08-2019 02:07 PM)bubbadog57 Wrote: My guess is we'll see Chase on Wright-Foreman. If so, will be a big test for our precocious freshman.
Our best hope might be if JWF cannot lift his arm due to it still being sore from all of his FG attempts on Saturday. Definitely not looking forward to facing him or Pusica.
I don’t think we’ll see Audige given a “shadow him all over the court” assignment against JWF. Not only does that match a senior against a freshman, it doesn’t really fit well with Audige’s tendency to foul.
I expect a lot of switching between zone and man and, yes, I think they’ll want Audige on JWF most when we play man.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - Tribal - 01-08-2019 04:28 PM
We need our Bama transfer to truck JWF. I mean, lay...him...out. :)
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - Rocco - 01-08-2019 05:38 PM
W&M's defense is 281st in KenPom. It's still 6th in the conference- the CAA has 4 teams in the bottom 50 defensively, which is pretty incredible. Hofstra's going to be a slightly tougher test than Drexel.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - tribeinexile - 01-08-2019 06:04 PM
We played 2 games and went from 316 to 281? Pretty dramatic change considering these were the 15th and 16th games of the season.
Does that speak to the quality of the defense played or the quality of the metric?
Since I don’t know how defensive efficiency is calculated, who are the conference teams ranked above us and where we have been historically ranked in the CAA per this measure, I’m not sure how I should be feeling about this.
The statistic that jumps out at me is the Milon is tied with Knight in rebounding (CAA games only). Not very happy about that.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - WillaMary08 - 01-09-2019 06:38 AM
Coach Shaver said in the CAA teleconference that Pierce should be good to go Thursday.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - dan10 - 01-09-2019 08:54 AM
(01-08-2019 05:38 PM)Rocco Wrote: W&M's defense is 281st in KenPom. It's still 6th in the conference- the CAA has 4 teams in the bottom 50 defensively, which is pretty incredible. Hofstra's going to be a slightly tougher test than Drexel.
Yes this season the CAA defenses are historically bad. Having a bad defense in this year's CAA is not a negative since, everyone else does too.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - Zorch - 01-09-2019 10:49 AM
(01-09-2019 08:54 AM)dan10 Wrote: Yes this season the CAA defenses are historically bad. Having a bad defense in this year's CAA is not a negative since, everyone else does too.
Sounds like it would be a good year to step out from the crowd by having a good defense! (But, unfortunately, so unlike the Tribe. Time to find a "new" way to win.).
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - TribePride91 - 01-09-2019 11:17 AM
The Tribe has held 3 of the first 4 opponents to under 70 points. Of course, the lowest total of 58 was a loss. I personally would be thrilled if we held either Northeastern or Hofstra to under 70 this week(and win), but I don't think that is likely. Two 92-90 wins would also be acceptable. Given all the road games to follow after Elon, the Tribe really needs to protect its home court in the next 3 games.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - tribeinexile - 01-09-2019 11:35 AM
I would expect CAA teams to be "below average" on defense. At the CAA level, what you can generally find are quick guards who can score; it is no coincidence that the top scorers (especially if you consider those who transferred out such as Martin and Isbell) are guards. What you have trouble finding are dominant big men who can clog up the middle defensively or athletic taller guards who can shut down opposing guards. The major conferences snap those guys up.
This is why FCS football generally has more good offensive teams than defensive ones; defensive talent is more scarce and is absorbed by the FBS teams.
It would be helpful for those of us among the great unwashed if the analytics guys on the boards would share their insight:
1) Where has W&M typically ranked defensively nationally? In the conference? Conference games only?
2) Why did our defensive ranking jump 25 teams in two games midway through the season?
3) What is the recommended amount of time we should be practicing defensive? I gather 90 seconds/practice is not enough.
4) Where has W&M typically ranked offensively nationally? In the conference? Conference games only?
I'm not a big fan of analytics-based basketball discussion but if we're going that way, let's go in all the way. Ideally, I would like to see a metric that tells us which players contribute the most defensively per minute (something like a defensive version of baseball's WAR).
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - Rocco - 01-09-2019 01:07 PM
The spreadsheet I have with the numbers is at home and I'm on the clock so I can't recreate it all, but W&M in conference under Shaver has generally been 8th-last over the last 10 years or so. The 2014 Tribe team was 305th in defensive efficiency and the 2015 team was 262nd. Last year's team was 335th, giving up 115.2 points per 100 possession. Pomeroy and other metrics adjust for tempo, meaning how many possessions there are in a game. They also take opponents in to account.
W&M held their last two opponents under a point/possession, which is good. IIRC they were around 109 points/100 possessions at the start of conference play and have shaved that down to 107.7. (For reference, Texas Tech leads the country at 83.1 points; UVA is at 86.5). Last year's team gave up 115.2 points/100.
"3) What is the recommended amount of time we should be practicing defensive? I gather 90 seconds/practice is not enough."
The only answer I have is "more than what they've usually done."
"4) Where has W&M typically ranked offensively nationally? In the conference? Conference games only?"
From 2013-18 W&M was 1st in offense every year except 2017, when they were 2nd behind UNCW's car shredder of an offense. They were usually in the top-75 offensively; last year they were 27th. This year they're at 105.4 points/100 possessions, which is 122nd. That's 10 points down from 2018. (Last year's games were appointment viewing and hopefully made people money from betting the over.) They're currently 4th in the conference.
"I'm not a big fan of analytics-based basketball discussion but if we're going that way, let's go in all the way. Ideally, I would like to see a metric that tells us which players contribute the most defensively per minute (something like a defensive version of baseball's WAR)."
Those stats do exist: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/william-mary/2019.html
Basketball stats are still behind baseball stats, which makes sense- baseball has over 100 years of detailed box scores, the baseball sabermetric movement is older, the sport itself is easier to quantify and basketball teams have been very aggressive at hiring stat nerds and making everything proprietary before they can put too much out on the market. The biggest issue with defensive statistics in basketball is it's not always easy to isolate the player from the team.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - LeadBolt - 01-09-2019 04:47 PM
(01-09-2019 01:07 PM)Rocco Wrote: The spreadsheet I have with the numbers is at home and I'm on the clock so I can't recreate it all, but W&M in conference under Shaver has generally been 8th-last over the last 10 years or so. The 2014 Tribe team was 305th in defensive efficiency and the 2015 team was 262nd. Last year's team was 335th, giving up 115.2 points per 100 possession. Pomeroy and other metrics adjust for tempo, meaning how many possessions there are in a game. They also take opponents in to account.
W&M held their last two opponents under a point/possession, which is good. IIRC they were around 109 points/100 possessions at the start of conference play and have shaved that down to 107.7. (For reference, Texas Tech leads the country at 83.1 points; UVA is at 86.5). Last year's team gave up 115.2 points/100.
"3) What is the recommended amount of time we should be practicing defensive? I gather 90 seconds/practice is not enough."
The only answer I have is "more than what they've usually done."
"4) Where has W&M typically ranked offensively nationally? In the conference? Conference games only?"
From 2013-18 W&M was 1st in offense every year except 2017, when they were 2nd behind UNCW's car shredder of an offense. They were usually in the top-75 offensively; last year they were 27th. This year they're at 105.4 points/100 possessions, which is 122nd. That's 10 points down from 2018. (Last year's games were appointment viewing and hopefully made people money from betting the over.) They're currently 4th in the conference.
"I'm not a big fan of analytics-based basketball discussion but if we're going that way, let's go in all the way. Ideally, I would like to see a metric that tells us which players contribute the most defensively per minute (something like a defensive version of baseball's WAR)."
Those stats do exist: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/william-mary/2019.html
Basketball stats are still behind baseball stats, which makes sense- baseball has over 100 years of detailed box scores, the baseball sabermetric movement is older, the sport itself is easier to quantify and basketball teams have been very aggressive at hiring stat nerds and making everything proprietary before they can put too much out on the market. The biggest issue with defensive statistics in basketball is it's not always easy to isolate the player from the team.
It would be interesting to know how much the fall-off in free throw shooting contributes to the overall offensive fall-off. Obviously it is not anywhere near the whole answer, but it would be interesting to know how much of the answer it comprises. Just applying last year's % of 81% to 298 free throws this year instead of our 65.4% yields a point increase of approx. 46. This ignores the impact of missing the front end of a 1 and 1.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - Rocco - 01-09-2019 08:06 PM
Last year they averaged 1.17 points/possession. This year so far they're averaging 1.06 points/possession. If they hit FTs at the same rate that number would be 1.10 points. Their tempo has been almost the same even though their ranking is lower- it looks like teams are playing faster so far this year. I wouldn't be shocked if that fell in conference play.
The missed FTs are having a slight effect. The real issue is the decline in 3 point shooting, which was expected but still hurting.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - tribeinexile - 01-09-2019 09:00 PM
It is my belief that the defensive ineffectiveness is not a function of inattention to defense in practice but a result of player selection, both the the athletes we recruit and the allocation of playing time. I was looking that the metrics to make the point that we could legitimately play a stronger defensive team (could, not necessarily should). However, I got stopped in my tracks by Rowley's ratings. My initial point was going to be that a more defensive-minded coach would play a lot less Rowley and a lot more Harvey and Blair. How we could do that would be an elaboration of my thesis.
Lo and behold, Rowley's DBPM is -0.2, which looks like the second-best on the team. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong metric (very good chance of that) and maybe there is a particular stat that is making Rowley into a defensive strength (relative to the others on the team).
At this point I'm bewitched and bewildered and simply can't believe the stats over my damn lying eyes.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - LeadBolt - 01-09-2019 09:10 PM
(01-09-2019 08:06 PM)Rocco Wrote: Last year they averaged 1.17 points/possession. This year so far they're averaging 1.06 points/possession. If they hit FTs at the same rate that number would be 1.10 points. Their tempo has been almost the same even though their ranking is lower- it looks like teams are playing faster so far this year. I wouldn't be shocked if that fell in conference play.
The missed FTs are having a slight effect. The real issue is the decline in 3 point shooting, which was expected but still hurting.
My gut told me it was 3 point shooting, but the ft's have been so atrocious I wanted to make sure.
I understand that our 3 pt shooting would fall off as Birchfield and Cohn's replacements weren't expected to shoot at the same rate as they did as Seniors and as Nate started taking more 3 pointers.
What I didn't expect was that Pierce and Rowley would drop from 42.8% to 30.4% from 3. Milon has been relatively stable going from 42.8% to 41.7%.
With Nate's passing ability and unselfishness, I had expected that an inside out orientation for 3's would have somewhat made up for losing Cohn's ability to penetrate and dish out to 3 point shooters, with our 3 pt. % being somewhere around the 40.5% it was last year sans Birchfield and Cohn. That would add 33 points approximately to our total so far this year.
RE: MBB - Game 17 Hofstra - Tribe32 - 01-09-2019 10:13 PM
Here is a crazy idea on why we aren't scoring as much or as efficiently. David Cohn scored a lot of points, made most of his free throws, and shot well from three. Our two point guards do none of these. That puts a lot of pressure on the other four players whereas last year David both facilitated the offense and scored.