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Maryland Football - SoCal Frank - 08-11-2018 07:25 PM
I’ve gone thru life wondering why more coaches weren’t murdered? The god awful things many of them say and do to others, many of whom are unstable, are horrible. The situation with Durkin at MD is a case in point. This guy is dirty to the max. BM, in C’ville, with his ‘ramming’ sessions in the locker room can’t be far behind. Anyone associated with Durkin should be running for the hills.
This story is all over the Sunday sports pages. There are photos of Durkin looking like a choirboy. In reality, he’s a borderline monster.
RE: Maryland Football - SoCal Frank - 09-21-2018 07:28 PM
The study commissioned to look into this has found the athletic dept culpable. They failed to respond adequately. Someone should pay. One report suggests that the U will spend north of $25,000,000 to get past this sordid chapter of its history. Where’s Jim Tatum when we need him?
RE: Maryland Football - SoCal Frank - 09-30-2018 05:01 PM
The worm is turning.
RE: Maryland Football - SoCal Frank - 11-01-2018 03:54 PM
Whitewash!! Money talks. Shameful.
Maryland Football - Tribe32 - 11-02-2018 12:31 PM
Interesting parallel between coaches and drill sergeants. Same parallels between football and battles.
I think we had a mutiny this week at Maryland. Nobody killed the coach, but they lit the fuse. Now we'll see what happens to Wallace Loh (not an angel or hero).
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Maryland Football - Tribal - 11-04-2018 02:12 PM
UMD had to find the money to fire that dick and it's exactly what the did
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RE: Maryland Football - SoCal Frank - 11-05-2018 07:24 AM
I’m in Cuba. I just caught up with all the palace intrigue on UMD board. Durkin can slide back under the rock he came from. They’ll have to clean house. At least they didn’t sink to PSU levels.
RE: Maryland Football - Zorch - 11-18-2018 08:23 PM
Isn't the current MD coach just interim? If so, it would explain the bonehead move he made going for 2 in overtime against Ohio State. He probably figured that everyone expected MD to lose anyway but if he could roll the dice and pull out a win against Ohio State then that would go a long way to impress the decision makers on the selection committee. In that context, maybe not so boneheaded after all.
Generally, I never favor going for 2 when going for 1 gives you a tie. That way, there is still time for the other team to screw up and make the game-losing mistake (like going for 2 when you don't need to). I attended a game at JMU about 6 years ago when Jimmye went for 2 in overtime when he didn't need to. It failed and the Tribe lost. Come to think of it, that was probably the last time the Tribe was any good, other than the last hurrah in 2015.
Maryland Football - hktribefan - 11-18-2018 10:30 PM
I didn’t watch MD-OSU but assuming it was similar to that game you reference between us and JMU. The other team is the better team and you get it to OT and have the chance to win on one play. If you tie you have to go on, and the odds favor the better team. If you roll the dice on one play you throw the one out there you feel most confident in. Either way you’re playing with house money.
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RE: Maryland Football - Zorch - 11-18-2018 11:17 PM
(11-18-2018 10:30 PM)hktribefan Wrote: I didn’t watch MD-OSU but assuming it was similar to that game you reference between us and JMU. The other team is the better team and you get it to OT and have the chance to win on one play. If you tie you have to go on, and the odds favor the better team. If you roll the dice on one play you throw the one out there you feel most confident in. Either way you’re playing with house money.
The part that I might debate you on is where you say "the other team is the better team". Yeah, sure, maybe on every other day ....but today you already got them to overtime, which, if they really are the better team, has got to be in their heads and probably has them very nervous. That contributes, as I said, to a mindset where you can hope the nerves, pressure, and expectations are all on them and cause them to make the first mistake. When you say house money, I think you are actually playing with the house money when you keep playing (rather than risk all the house money on one turn of the roulette wheel).
RE: Maryland Football - WMInTheBurg - 11-19-2018 12:01 AM
I don't think you can pin that loss on the coach, given the play call on the 2 pointer. Everything went right except getting the ball to the wide open guy.
https://deadspin.com/man-maryland-really-shouldve-won-that-1830516588
RE: Maryland Football - hktribefan - 11-19-2018 03:40 AM
(11-18-2018 11:17 PM)Zorch Wrote:(11-18-2018 10:30 PM)hktribefan Wrote: I didn’t watch MD-OSU but assuming it was similar to that game you reference between us and JMU. The other team is the better team and you get it to OT and have the chance to win on one play. If you tie you have to go on, and the odds favor the better team. If you roll the dice on one play you throw the one out there you feel most confident in. Either way you’re playing with house money.
The part that I might debate you on is where you say "the other team is the better team". Yeah, sure, maybe on every other day ....but today you already got them to overtime, which, if they really are the better team, has got to be in their heads and probably has them very nervous. That contributes, as I said, to a mindset where you can hope the nerves, pressure, and expectations are all on them and cause them to make the first mistake. When you say house money, I think you are actually playing with the house money when you keep playing (rather than risk all the house money on one turn of the roulette wheel).
It's like the hot hand fallacy. I genuinely don't know if I'd advocate going for two or not; when I see things like that in games I always think about it, but it's an interesting decision. The hot hand fallacy probably leaves out things like nerves and being in someones head and such, but the argument could be that it goes both ways.
I hadn't seen the actual play until that link, and that throw just whipped right past the open receiver.
RE: Maryland Football - tribe_pride - 11-19-2018 09:17 AM
(11-19-2018 12:01 AM)TribeInTheBurg Wrote: I don't think you can pin that loss on the coach, given the play call on the 2 pointer. Everything went right except getting the ball to the wide open guy.
https://deadspin.com/man-maryland-really-shouldve-won-that-1830516588
Yeah. Guy was wide open. MD should have won that game.
Think the reason that MD went for it (in addition to what was said above) was that Ohio State only punted once in the 2nd half. MD wasn't stopping them and had been stopped a few more times that half so might as well go for the win when they had the chance.
RE: Maryland Football - Zorch - 11-19-2018 11:06 AM
(11-19-2018 03:40 AM)hktribefan Wrote: I hadn't seen the actual play until that link, and that throw just whipped right past the open receiver.
I hadn't seen the play either. The success or failure doesn't change my opinion on what he should have done ...but, man, that coach has got to be losing sleep on how close he came to a big, big upset that might have gotten him the permanent job (and it still might).
RE: Maryland Football - Rocco - 11-20-2018 12:20 PM
(11-18-2018 08:23 PM)Zorch Wrote: Isn't the current MD coach just interim? If so, it would explain the bonehead move he made going for 2 in overtime against Ohio State. He probably figured that everyone expected MD to lose anyway but if he could roll the dice and pull out a win against Ohio State then that would go a long way to impress the decision makers on the selection committee. In that context, maybe not so boneheaded after all.
Generally, I never favor going for 2 when going for 1 gives you a tie. That way, there is still time for the other team to screw up and make the game-losing mistake (like going for 2 when you don't need to). I attended a game at JMU about 6 years ago when Jimmye went for 2 in overtime when he didn't need to. It failed and the Tribe lost. Come to think of it, that was probably the last time the Tribe was any good, other than the last hurrah in 2015.
That was the 2012 season. The Tribe was 2-9 that year.
Underdogs try to shorten the game because the longer a game goes the more likely it is the more talented team wins. This is why basketball teams hold the ball as long as possible against better teams. If you go for 2 there you can win it with one play. Of you kick you have to make at least three plays (the extra point, one on offense and one on defense) and probably more than that. If you can win the game, you should win the game.
RE: Maryland Football - Zorch - 11-20-2018 01:46 PM
(11-20-2018 12:20 PM)Rocco Wrote: That was the 2012 season. The Tribe was 2-9 that year.
I also attended another game there at Bridgeforth where the Tribe was #1 in the country going in. That must have been 2010 (hence my comment about it being the last time we had a good team other than 2015). I obviously merged the one event into the other year.
It would be interesting to see a statistical analysis of how often underdog teams succeed at 2-point conversions at the end of regulation or in overtime (this said to the stats man). The eyeball test tells me that they fail more often than they succeed. My opinion is that in overtime it is the first team to make a mistake that loses. You don't want to make that mistake on purpose.
RE: Maryland Football - Rocco - 11-20-2018 05:50 PM
(11-20-2018 01:46 PM)Zorch Wrote:(11-20-2018 12:20 PM)Rocco Wrote: That was the 2012 season. The Tribe was 2-9 that year.
I also attended another game there at Bridgeforth where the Tribe was #1 in the country going in. That must have been 2010 (hence my comment about it being the last time we had a good team other than 2015). I obviously merged the one event into the other year.
It would be interesting to see a statistical analysis of how often underdog teams succeed at 2-point conversions at the end of regulation or in overtime (this said to the stats man). The eyeball test tells me that they fail more often than they succeed. My opinion is that in overtime it is the first team to make a mistake that loses. You don't want to make that mistake on purpose.
This is from 2015:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2whlby/breakdown_of_overtime_statistics_for_college/
"Record of teams that go for two when two points aren't required: (16-17)."
So then looking here(https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/play-index/sgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&game_result=W&is_overtime=Y&c1stat=points_diff&c1comp=eq&c1val=1&order_by=date_game) we have the following games:
Arkansas over Ole Miss, 2015 (went for 2, won)
Vandy over WKU, 2016 (WKU went for 2, lost)
South Alabama over Nicholls State, 2016 (NSU went for 2, lost)
Tennessee-GT 2017 (GT went for 2 and passed for some dumb reason, lost)
Charlotte over UAB, 2017 (Charlotte went for 2, won)
Arizona over Cal, 2017 (Cal went for 2, lost)
SMU over Navy, 2018 (SMU went for 2, won)
Army over Miami, 2018 (Miami went for 2, lost)
Akron over Kent State, 2018 (KSU went for 2, lost)
Western Michigan over Ball State, 2018 (BSU went for 2, lost)
Ohio State over Maryland, 2018 (MD went for 2, lost)
There was also WKU- MTSU where MTSU took the safe play but had an XP blocked.
It looks like teams that go for 2 in OT are 19- 28, about 40%. If you think your chances of hitting a 2 point conversion are better than your chances of scoring again and getting another stop, you take the 2 point conversion. If you think you're the better team you kick and keep things going. The other factor is that after 2 OTs you have to go for 2, so there's some incentive to go for 2 in the 2nd OT before you're forced to do so. Also here's the list of overtime games decided by 2 or more points since 2015:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/play-index/sgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&game_result=W&is_overtime=Y&c1stat=points_diff&c1comp=gt&c1val=2&order_by=date_game
I cut it off at 2015 because whenever I go to "next page" it forgets to include the overtime modifier.
I think I see two games where a G5 team prevailed in OT:
11-2 USF over 6-7 South Carolina, 2016
9-4 BYU over 6-7 Mississippi State, 2016
Neither of those would be considered upsets. It doesn't look like it benefitted the minnows much to drag the games out longer than necessary. Talent wins out over time.
Maryland Football - hktribefan - 11-20-2018 06:38 PM
Rocco, I love that you’re always ready with the stats!
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RE: Maryland Football - Rocco - 11-20-2018 06:41 PM
(11-20-2018 06:38 PM)hktribefan Wrote: Rocco, I love that you’re always ready with the stats!
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It's either research stats or talk to my wife.
RE: Maryland Football - Zorch - 11-20-2018 07:03 PM
(11-20-2018 05:50 PM)Rocco Wrote:(11-20-2018 01:46 PM)Zorch Wrote:(11-20-2018 12:20 PM)Rocco Wrote: That was the 2012 season. The Tribe was 2-9 that year.
I also attended another game there at Bridgeforth where the Tribe was #1 in the country going in. That must have been 2010 (hence my comment about it being the last time we had a good team other than 2015). I obviously merged the one event into the other year.
It would be interesting to see a statistical analysis of how often underdog teams succeed at 2-point conversions at the end of regulation or in overtime (this said to the stats man). The eyeball test tells me that they fail more often than they succeed. My opinion is that in overtime it is the first team to make a mistake that loses. You don't want to make that mistake on purpose.
This is from 2015:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2whlby/breakdown_of_overtime_statistics_for_college/
"Record of teams that go for two when two points aren't required: (16-17)."
So then looking here(https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/play-index/sgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&game_result=W&is_overtime=Y&c1stat=points_diff&c1comp=eq&c1val=1&order_by=date_game) we have the following games:
Arkansas over Ole Miss, 2015 (went for 2, won)
Vandy over WKU, 2016 (WKU went for 2, lost)
South Alabama over Nicholls State, 2016 (NSU went for 2, lost)
Tennessee-GT 2017 (GT went for 2 and passed for some dumb reason, lost)
Charlotte over UAB, 2017 (Charlotte went for 2, won)
Arizona over Cal, 2017 (Cal went for 2, lost)
SMU over Navy, 2018 (SMU went for 2, won)
Army over Miami, 2018 (Miami went for 2, lost)
Akron over Kent State, 2018 (KSU went for 2, lost)
Western Michigan over Ball State, 2018 (BSU went for 2, lost)
Ohio State over Maryland, 2018 (MD went for 2, lost)
There was also WKU- MTSU where MTSU took the safe play but had an XP blocked.
It looks like teams that go for 2 in OT are 19- 28, about 40%. If you think your chances of hitting a 2 point conversion are better than your chances of scoring again and getting another stop, you take the 2 point conversion. If you think you're the better team you kick and keep things going. The other factor is that after 2 OTs you have to go for 2, so there's some incentive to go for 2 in the 2nd OT before you're forced to do so. Also here's the list of overtime games decided by 2 or more points since 2015:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/play-index/sgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&game_result=W&is_overtime=Y&c1stat=points_diff&c1comp=gt&c1val=2&order_by=date_game
I cut it off at 2015 because whenever I go to "next page" it forgets to include the overtime modifier.
I think I see two games where a G5 team prevailed in OT:
11-2 USF over 6-7 South Carolina, 2016
9-4 BYU over 6-7 Mississippi State, 2016
Neither of those would be considered upsets. It doesn't look like it benefitted the minnows much to drag the games out longer than necessary. Talent wins out over time.
Great stuff here, thanks! Since the basketball game is about to start (they are singing the national anthem as I write this), I will wait until afterwards to click on the links provided.