+- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com)
+-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html)
+--- Forum: CAAbbs (/forum-676.html)
+---- Forum: CAA Conference Talk (/forum-677.html)
+----- Forum: William & Mary (/forum-691.html)
+----- Thread: All CAA forecast (/thread-810432.html)
All CAA forecast - 3xTribe - 02-26-2017 08:59 AM
Daniel Dixon has made a great case for himself for All CAA first team, and maybe even for POY. It seems to me that there are three solid candidates: Dixon, Wright-Foreman (who shredded us the other night) and TJ Williams. Does anyone know what emphasis is placed on league play vs. non-league? Dixon is 2nd in scoring in both scenarios, but Wright-Foreman is the leader in league only, while Williams leads overall. Also, Williams has played a ridiculous 38 minutes per game, and is also 2nd in the league in assists (3rd in league only). None of these 3 play for the top 2 or 3 teams in the league. Daniel plays for the best team of these three, but does that really matter? Any other POY candidates to consider?
It looks to me like Omar should get 2nd team nod, with top 10 finishes in scoring, assists, and rebounds.
RE: All CAA forecast - billymac - 02-26-2017 10:21 AM
While the whole season counts, Coaches still tend to vote for players who terrorized their teams (so a lot is weighted to League play) and what they saw in person.
What I am hearing is that Williams should probably be considered the front runner, but that there is no clear favorite as there may have been in seasons past. Daniel has a great chance, as does Wright-Foreman (unless coaches use the "he's only a sophomore, so he'll have more chances to win POY later" against him).
My vote for First Team would go to Dixon, Williams, Wright-Foreman, Chealy and Cacok (or Bryce - they may split the UNCW vote).
Cacok just missed being this year's Double-Double baby (12.2/9.8), taking over for Gustys.
I would definitely vote Omar 2nd Team, with Brantley, Bryce (Cacok), Lee and R. Williams.
I will go with Daniel for Player of the Year, because of his February dominance..and,well, because I'm a homer...
For All-Rookie I would vote Daly, Riller, Knight, Kurk Lee and Pemberton (hey, you can hate, but he IS talented). ROY is probably the toughest pick, as Daly and Riller have both had great seasons. I would go Riller simply because he is the one I would trade for if I was GM of the Tribe.
I would go with Kevin Keatts for Coach of the Year. I don't think he is long for the CAA. He is just too talented and can recruit.
Of course, I will probably be wrong on all counts...it's what I do.
RE: All CAA forecast - WMtribe17 - 02-26-2017 10:47 AM
Based on conference-only stats:
Dixon, Williams, Wright-Foreman, Bryce, & Cacok are my 1st team (Brantley being the first one out; I think the only one not set in stone is Bryce)
Chealey, Lee, Daly, Prewitt, Brantley are my 2nd team (I am sure Flemmings will be voted 2nd team over Lee because of his preseason hype, but Lee has been equally as good on a team that requires Lee to do everything for them)
Ingram, Kent, Flemmings, Rodney Williams, Seibring are my 3rd team.
A lot of tough choices this year because a lot of players scored well during conference play.
RE: All CAA forecast - Tribe32 - 02-26-2017 11:50 AM
I don't see how Prewitt makes first or second team other than his name from last year. There are a ton of talented forwards in the league. He had an off year.
Nobody mentioned Alex Murphy. I think he's in the mix as is Adala Moto from Towson unless you consider him a center. Gustys led the league in rebounding, so he'll get some votes. I wish they had most improved because Whitman would get a lot of votes
RE: All CAA forecast - WillaMary08 - 02-26-2017 01:24 PM
I don't know all the intricacies of Win Shares but it seems to be the only cumulative stat for league-play (which to me are the only games that matter for this kind of thing). Here is a ranking of CAA players with at least one win share in conference play. The number before the player's name is the number of win shares and the number at the end is win shares per 40 minutes which is what I used as a tie breaker for players with the same amount of cumulative win shares.
3.7 Joe Chealey JR Charleston .231
2.8 Devontae Cacok SO Wilmington .231
2.8 Justin Wright-Foreman SO Hofstra .177
2.7 Daniel Dixon SR William & Mary .201
2.5 Tyler Seibring SO Elon .165
2.4 Jarrell Brantley SO Charleston .171
2.4 TJ Williams SR Northeastern .147
2.3 Grant Riller FR Charleston .171
2.3 CJ Bryce SO Wilmington .147
2.3 Jackson Kent SR James Madison .139
2.2 Denzel Ingram SR Wilmington .143
2.1 Dainan Swoope SO Elon .132
2.0 Chris Flemmings SR Wilmington .131
1.7 John Davis SR Towson .203
1.7 Arnaud Adala Moto SR Towson .140
1.5 Jack Whitman JR William & Mary .145
1.5 Brian Hawkins JR Elon .124
1.5 Bolden Brace FR Northeastern .115
1.5 Steve Santa Ana SO Elon .110
1.5 Rodney Williams SR Drexel .098
1.5 Ryan Daly FR Delaware .089
1.4 Nick Harris SO Charleston .136
1.4 Ambrose Mosley SR Wilmington .123
1.4 Deshaun Morman JR Towson .117
1.4 Alex Murphy SR Northeastern .103
1.4 Dmitri Thompson JR Elon .103
1.3 Nathan Knight FR William & Mary .176
1.3 Ramone Snowden JR James Madison .099
1.3 Omar Prewitt SR William & Mary .095
1.3 Eli Pemberton FR Hofstra .089
1.2 Anthony Green SO Northeastern .120
1.2 Paulius Satkus SR James Madison .112
1.2 Mike Morsell JR Towson .105
1.2 Deron Powers SR Hofstra .077
1.1 Ivan Lukic SR James Madison .121
1.1 Devon Begley JR Northeastern .091
1.1 Sammy Mojica JR Drexel .076
1.1 Kurk Lee FR Drexel .071
1.0 Hunter Sabety JR Hofstra .150
1.0 Jordan Talley JR Wilmington .126
1.0 Joey McLean JR James Madison .073
If they give the POY award to a senior then I can see Dixon winning it. Chealey, as a rising senior, could be the preseason POY come next year.
If you're like me then I know when you look at this list you are noticing the seniors i.e. the talent leaving the league and then seeing who remains. I looked at each team's roster and added up the league-play win shares of all players returning next year to get a rudimentary idea on the spread of talent in the league for next season.
Returning Win Shares | Team
11.8 Charleston
9.2 Elon
7.2 Wilmington
6.7 Towson
6.0 Hofstra
5.5 William & Mary
5.1 Northeastern
3.5 Drexel
2.2 James Madison
1.9 Delaware
This is a measure of a team's predictability as much as potential since the teams at the top have less minutes to replace and/or have players proven to be successful at the CAA level playing the majority of minutes. This ranking can't take into account the unpredictable impact of incoming freshmen or transfers nor can it predict what returning player, given an expanded role or having a great offseason or both, explodes like Wright-Foreman (ahem Justin Pierce).
RE: All CAA forecast - Tribal - 02-27-2017 06:58 PM
Can't help but notice how many of the guys on that list were recruited by W&M.
Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk
RE: All CAA forecast - tribeinexile - 02-27-2017 07:56 PM
Not sure I understand the applicability of win shares to basketball. I understand analytics is all the rage in the NBA now but sabermetrics cut its teeth in baseball. In that sport each play is a discrete event and individual efforts are more independent of each other than in any other sports. (I realize an infielder with limited range impacts a ground ball pitcher more than an a strikeout artist but still ...). Basketball games are much more difficult to break down into isolated, measurable components.
I struggle with a statistic that says Jack Whitman is more valuable to us than Prewitt and Knight (this year) is a valuable as Prewitt. When either Whitman or Knight has an off-game the other one has picked them up. In fact for the last couple of minutes against Towson, it was Prewitt who picked them up and made the key plays down the stretch.
Prewitt is our second leading scorer, leads in minutes played, leads in rebounding and is second in assists. For all the carping about his decision-making (and it has not been infallible) his assist to turnover ratio is 1.48 while Dixon, who is a POY candidate, has a ratio of 1.04.
I don't see where we would have been better off with more minutes going to Malinowski, Rowley or Pierce (and I really wish Pierce had gotten more minutes this year).
I would be extremely disappointed if Prewitt is not second-team CAA this year.
RE: All CAA forecast - Tribe32 - 02-27-2017 08:19 PM
I don't know, tribeinexlile. My eye chart showed me that Jack had a damn good year and played his ass off. He came in here with a lot of praise and promise and honestly more than Omar from some accounts. He's never been healthy until this year and then had a very good season.
RE: All CAA forecast - WMtribe17 - 02-27-2017 09:28 PM
(02-26-2017 11:50 AM)Tribe32 Wrote: I don't see how Prewitt makes first or second team other than his name from last year. There are a ton of talented forwards in the league. He had an off year.
Nobody mentioned Alex Murphy. I think he's in the mix as is Adala Moto from Towson unless you consider him a center. Gustys led the league in rebounding, so he'll get some votes. I wish they had most improved because Whitman would get a lot of votes
Not saying Prewitt had the year we alll thought he would, but at the end of the day Prewitt was top 10 in the CAA in points, assists, and rebounds. The only other person to do that in the CAA was C.J. Bryce of UNCW.
If being top 10 in points, assists, and rebounds doesn't get you 2nd team in the CAA, then something is wrong with the people that voted.
All CAA forecast - Tribeheart - 02-27-2017 11:31 PM
Omar has not had the year I'm sure he expected, but there have not been a depth of players this year either who have distinguished themselves, so, I'd think his chances of making that final ten cut are pretty good.
Sent from my SM-N910V using CSNbbs mobile app
RE: All CAA forecast - WMInTheBurg - 02-28-2017 04:39 PM
If Omar had his 3-ball going all year, he'd be first team. Since he struggled for a month or so, he falls to second team. He and Dixon are the focus of every team we play.
I'd love to see Whitman sneak in as a 3rd team, because he was vital to our success in a lot of games this year. With the even split of time between him and Knight, the stats probably just aren't there.
RE: All CAA forecast - WM Beancounter - 03-01-2017 01:30 PM
Whitman doesn't even start any more, so I doubt he'll earn any conference awards. His progress, however, has been critical for W&M's success this year, and I suspect he will be important against UNCW should we get to the 3rd round... he played very well in both games versus the Seahawks.
RE: All CAA forecast - mrjoolius - 03-01-2017 01:58 PM
As long as Knight averages 3 personal fouls over his 17 minute average, Jack will be playing plenty.