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+----- Thread: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown (/thread-764411.html)
W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - WMSportsBlog - 12-26-2015 12:14 PM
Through the first 10 games of the season, we'd say things are going pretty well! We've had a tough out of conference schedule, and have weathered the storm nicely. Can't complain about 7-3 overall and an undefeated home recored. But through it all, who leads us in several key statistical categories--rebounding, minutes played, scoring, etc? Check out our newest article below to check it out!
Roll Tribe.
Article: http://wmsportsblog.com/2015/12/26/statistical-breakdown-wm-basketball/
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - WMTribe90 - 12-27-2015 01:03 AM
(12-26-2015 12:14 PM)WMSportsBlog Wrote: Through the first 10 games of the season, we'd say things are going pretty well! We've had a tough out of conference schedule, and have weathered the storm nicely. Can't complain about 7-3 overall and an undefeated home recored. But through it all, who leads us in several key statistical categories--rebounding, minutes played, scoring, etc? Check out our newest article below to check it out!
Roll Tribe.
Article: http://wmsportsblog.com/2015/12/26/statistical-breakdown-wm-basketball/
Good read, thanks. While I agree that the chances of the CAA getting an at-large to the tourney are thin. There is importance to the regular season and OOC schedule beyond setting ourselves up to win the CAA Tourney and go dancing. Assuming we can beat CMU on Tuesday, WM is well positioned for an NIT invite if we finish in the top 3 regular season, but fall short of the ultimate goal. Making the NIT two years in a row would be no small feat for a school that's been to the NIT three times in its entire history.
Coming into the season we all would have taken a 7-3 start giving the SOS. That said we are two narrow loses to Howard and Dayton from being a NCAA bubble team.
No time to look back now though, the CAA has come roaring back this season with a top ten conference RPI and no fewer than 5 teams with legit championship aspirations. Regular season will be highly entertaining and competitive. The edge will go to teams that come to play every night out and can finish out games. Depth and balance could really help the Tribe come the regular season grind.
We've played well, but need to improve to achieve the grand prize. Her are some of my observations:
Cohn - Brings unique athleticism and quickness. However, his shooting percentages are 28% and 7%. He can bring valuable offense, especially in the transition game, but needs to pick his spots better. There's plenty of upside here if he reduces the negative plays. I think Shaver will coach him up and harness the potential.
Tarpey - He has picked-up where he left-off last year...with one exception. His jump shooting and 3-point shooting are down. This is not a criticism, he clearly does so much on the floor, but if the team is to reach its highest potential then having Tarpey on the perimeter keeping defenses honest makes us that much more potent on offense.
Free Throws - Probably should have listed this first. No way a team that shoots as well as WM should be shooting 68% from the charity stripe. Free throws cost us big time in two of three losses and will cost us more games down the line if we don't get this percentage up into the mid-70's (73% last year).
Tot - Hampered by injury early, I think his minutes will increase from here on out and he'll be in the regular rotation. He's a complete player and I think he and Cohn should split the vast majority or all the PG minutes. Having Tot come off the bench and play to his capabilities makes WM a better squad going forward.
Defense - This is a very good offensive team, but there will always be nights where the shots don't fall for a portion or all of the game. Defense will keep you in the game when shots aren't falling. I'd give our defense a B so far. Pretty good in general, very good at times, but not consistent enough. We've got enough size, length, and athletes to be a B+ or A- defense.
So, those are my five priorities for the rest of the season. If most or all of them come to pass then there's a very good chance we go dancing.
Go Tribe!
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - BigTribe2 - 12-27-2015 07:59 AM
Very good analysis by WMTribe90,
I would add one more important plus: for the first time perhaps in Tribe basketball memory we have quality depth that goes nine, perhaps ten, deep. This allows Coach Shaver to substitute liberally and rest his starters.
This means that our top stars are rested for the final minutes; their fresh legs in crunch time have already paid off against High Point and ODU and will be especially critical in the upcoming CAA battles during the long season.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - billymac - 12-27-2015 09:55 AM
I agree with WMT90. I think you cannot rule out, that easily, a second bid for the CAA. While there may be a little anti-Mid Major bias (I'm not buying that "We don't look at Conference affiliation" BS, I think you'll find that in the past 5-6 years, the 8th-9th ranked conferences all got at least one extra bid.
As long as the CAA doesn't become a blood bath (everyone ending up 9-9ish), then I think the League has a decent to good shot at one extra bid, especially if 2-3 teams have really good conference records (20 or more overall wins).
As for the team, I think the most important ingredient is if we come to play defense EVERY night. Shooting will come and go, but defense will give you a shot at victory every time out.
(...and shoot some extra practice foul shots...)
W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - SoCal Frank - 12-27-2015 11:51 AM
It's a paint game. I remain convinced that Tot will emerge. The cream rises to to the top.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - WMInTheBurg - 12-27-2015 01:25 PM
Omar has stepped up his game when it comes to getting to the line this year. That's something you see in the top scorers in the league and the country, and something we've only had in Omar and Marcus before him. They don't shy away from contact and they're looking for three point plays every time. Now, making the "and one" is not as automatic as it should be, but hopefully that comes with practice. I will say that Omar looks bigger this year, and I wonder if it's affecting his foul shooting.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - BigTribe2 - 12-27-2015 06:02 PM
Omar grew an inch since last season and is listed on the roster now as 6'7". He also added about ten pounds.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - Tribal - 01-03-2016 09:15 PM
I got this from the UNCW board who got it from a ECU fan.
Rocco may need to smoke a cigarette after viewing the "advanced" section.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/william-mary/2016.html
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - WMInTheBurg - 01-03-2016 10:12 PM
1st number that jumped out at me was Omar's 7.4 FTA per game. Doubles anyone (including himself) from last year, and shows a dimension we haven't had here in a long time. For reference, Howard's James Daniel is leading the country with 12.5, but that's 3 ahead of 2nd place. Top 10 nationally is 8.1.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - billymac - 01-03-2016 10:13 PM
You gotta love it. If Jamison played 40 minutes, he'd score 40 PPG. Point a minute man, oo-rah!
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - Rocco - 01-03-2016 11:16 PM
They have Win Shares now for college basketball? Awesome. Though if it doesn't have 2011 JohnMark Ludwick as being worth 10 wins it's invalid.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - zablenoise - 01-04-2016 09:29 AM
If those advanced stats don't make you love Terry Tarpey I don't know what will. If I'm reading correctly 1/10 of all opponent's possessions end with either a steal or a block when he's on the court. That's amazing. His defense is so good that even though he's replacement level (exactly) on offense he contributes more than 7 points above replacement overall. Plus he's a blast to watch.
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - Mrs. Got Ribe - 01-04-2016 10:54 AM
The turnover % is very telling. Schlotman (36.2) and Tot (29.9) lead the team. Cohn is sixth at 15.3.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - Rocco - 01-04-2016 12:30 PM
(01-04-2016 09:29 AM)zablenoise Wrote: If those advanced stats don't make you love Terry Tarpey I don't know what will. If I'm reading correctly 1/10 of all opponent's possessions end with either a steal or a block when he's on the court. That's amazing. His defense is so good that even though he's replacement level (exactly) on offense he contributes more than 7 points above replacement overall. Plus he's a blast to watch.
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
It says something that by advanced stats Tarpey was more valuable than Thornton last season. Defensive metrics are imperfect but it isn't a huge stretch.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - tribeinexile - 01-04-2016 03:18 PM
Last year we graduated a 2,000 point scorer. Next year we might as well. Yet I always thought this year was the year we had to make something happen because I think Tarpey is truly a once in a generation player.
RE: W&M Basketball: Statistical Breakdown - wmmii - 01-05-2016 02:44 PM
(01-04-2016 03:18 PM)tribeinexile Wrote: Last year we graduated a 2,000 point scorer. Next year we might as well. Yet I always thought this year was the year we had to make something happen because I think Tarpey is truly a once in a generation player.
agree