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RE: Acess Bowl race - SoCalBobcat78 - 11-03-2015 02:59 PM
(11-03-2015 01:15 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:(11-03-2015 01:09 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:(11-03-2015 12:33 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:(11-03-2015 12:25 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote: App State has pretty much zero chances unless Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple and Boise State all tank the rest of their season. Also didn't Memphis beat Ole Miss, which Alabama was unable to do? Why exactly would you assume they'd get smoked by Alabama?
Again, only conference champions are considered. So they don't have to tank the rest of the season, they just have to lose their conference championship games. As mentioned, this is problematic in the AAC because there are so many great candidates. South Florida and an outside chance of Cincinnati are our only hopes.
The AAC Championship game will very likely be Temple vs either Memphis or Houston. The winner gets the Access bowl unless Toledo is 13-0 at the end of the season. South Florida and Cincinnati are both two games behind Temple in the East division.
Either USF or Cincinnati will lose at least one more game since they both play each other. Cincinnati already lost to Temple, so a division tie goes to Temple. USF will have to win at East Carolina, then beat Temple at home and then beat Cincinnati at home. Temple also has to lose a 2nd conference game for USF to catch them. Highly unlikely for all of these things to happen.
Because of the strength of their conference this year, the AAC will be helped by a Conference Championship Game.
I'm fully aware how long of a shot it is. I've been following this the whole year. It is just simply inaccurate to say that all of those teams have to tank their season for App to sneak in. "All" that has to happen is for the favorites to lose their conference championship games. Let's go USF.
If a 12-0 Memphis plays a 10-2 Temple for the AAC Championship, the winner of that game will be selected over App State. The team selected to the access bowl will be the highest ranked G5 school. That won't be a Sun Belt school. That will be an AAC school or Toledo.
RE: Acess Bowl race - asucrutch23 - 11-03-2015 03:21 PM
(11-03-2015 02:59 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:(11-03-2015 01:15 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:(11-03-2015 01:09 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:(11-03-2015 12:33 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:(11-03-2015 12:25 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote: App State has pretty much zero chances unless Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple and Boise State all tank the rest of their season. Also didn't Memphis beat Ole Miss, which Alabama was unable to do? Why exactly would you assume they'd get smoked by Alabama?
Again, only conference champions are considered. So they don't have to tank the rest of the season, they just have to lose their conference championship games. As mentioned, this is problematic in the AAC because there are so many great candidates. South Florida and an outside chance of Cincinnati are our only hopes.
The AAC Championship game will very likely be Temple vs either Memphis or Houston. The winner gets the Access bowl unless Toledo is 13-0 at the end of the season. South Florida and Cincinnati are both two games behind Temple in the East division.
Either USF or Cincinnati will lose at least one more game since they both play each other. Cincinnati already lost to Temple, so a division tie goes to Temple. USF will have to win at East Carolina, then beat Temple at home and then beat Cincinnati at home. Temple also has to lose a 2nd conference game for USF to catch them. Highly unlikely for all of these things to happen.
Because of the strength of their conference this year, the AAC will be helped by a Conference Championship Game.
I'm fully aware how long of a shot it is. I've been following this the whole year. It is just simply inaccurate to say that all of those teams have to tank their season for App to sneak in. "All" that has to happen is for the favorites to lose their conference championship games. Let's go USF.
If a 12-0 Memphis plays a 10-2 Temple for the AAC Championship, the winner of that game will be selected over App State. The team selected to the access bowl will be the highest ranked G5 school. That won't be a Sun Belt school. That will be an AAC school or Toledo.
No, the team chosen for the Access Bowl is the highest ranked G5 CHAMPION. They must win their conference championship game. South Florida can still win the AAC championship game and would be a worse candidate than an 11-1 ranked App State with its only loss coming to a potentially #1 Clemson. Please take a look at the articles posted above if you are still confused.
For example, the only teams that could have been chosen last year were:
AAC - Memphis (3 way tie broken by CFP committee ranking, no CCG)
CUSA - Marshall (won CUSA CG)
MAC - Northern Illinois (won MAC CG)
MWC - #20 Boise State (won MWC CG)
SBC - UL-Lafayette (Georgia Southern was conference champion, but was ineligble for bowls because there were enough other eligible teams)
This year, the AAC has a CCG, same as the other 3 conferences. Only the winners of the CCGs will be considered, along with the regular season champion of the SBC.
RE: Acess Bowl race - UofToledoFans - 11-03-2015 03:30 PM
Great Analysis!!
Toledo is hoping for stAte to win the the belt at 9-3, and for Arkansas to finish 6-6 or 7-5 with a win over Ole Miss to trump Memphis' win. We also have a common opponent in Bowling Green who if we beat twice by more than 3, might point to Toledo being better than Memphis. I doubt we run the table because BG's passing attack will be a lot to handle at Ford field in the Championship game. We will see.... I would have no problem going back to the Godaddy and getting a shot at 11-1 Appy State regardless of our record though!
BTW Toledo had a game canceled so they can go 12-0 at best prior to the bowl game.
RE: Acess Bowl race - asucrutch23 - 11-03-2015 03:40 PM
(11-03-2015 03:30 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Great Analysis!!
Toledo is hoping for stAte to win the the belt at 9-3, and for Arkansas to finish 6-6 or 7-5 with a win over Ole Miss to trump Memphis' win. We also have a common opponent in Bowling Green who if we beat twice by more than 3, might point to Toledo being better than Memphis. I doubt we run the table because BG's passing attack will be a lot to handle at Ford field in the Championship game. We will see.... I would have no problem going back to the Godaddy and getting a shot at 11-1 Appy State regardless of our record though!
BTW Toledo had a game canceled so they can go 12-0 at best prior to the bowl game.
A 12-0 Toledo is a great candidate. You guys also need to be rooting for the South Florida miracle, but I think you also have a chance of beating out Navy or Temple (something I can't say about my team). I have to admit, I am rooting for you guys to get knocked off for our sake (still holding out on the little hope we have), but would love to see 11-1 App vs. 12-0 Toledo in Mobile if we can't go to Atlanta!
RE: Acess Bowl race - runamuck - 11-03-2015 05:46 PM
(11-03-2015 02:29 PM)JCGSU Wrote:(11-03-2015 02:23 PM)panama Wrote:(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote: It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.
Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:
9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State
That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.
There is no scenario where you beat out the AAC champ.
USF could win it. Are you saying a four loss USF gets in over a 11-1 App?
![[Image: 94ade70536c2c695f945a1eabaecf8aa.500x200x16.gif]](https://images.rapgenius.com/94ade70536c2c695f945a1eabaecf8aa.500x200x16.gif)
neither the ap or coaches polls have app ranked..
RE: Acess Bowl race - asucrutch23 - 11-03-2015 06:23 PM
(11-03-2015 05:46 PM)runamuck Wrote:(11-03-2015 02:29 PM)JCGSU Wrote:(11-03-2015 02:23 PM)panama Wrote:(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote: It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.
Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:
9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State
That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.
There is no scenario where you beat out the AAC champ.
USF could win it. Are you saying a four loss USF gets in over a 11-1 App?
neither the ap or coaches polls have app ranked..
Read the thread. Doesn't matter. Only conference champions are considered. We are only talking about the hypothetical scenario that App runs the table AND several favorites get upset in their respective conference championship games.
RE: Acess Bowl race - GeauxUL - 11-03-2015 06:50 PM
(11-03-2015 06:23 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:(11-03-2015 05:46 PM)runamuck Wrote:(11-03-2015 02:29 PM)JCGSU Wrote:(11-03-2015 02:23 PM)panama Wrote:(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote: It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.
Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:
9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State
That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.
There is no scenario where you beat out the AAC champ.
USF could win it. Are you saying a four loss USF gets in over a 11-1 App?
neither the ap or coaches polls have app ranked..
Read the thread. Doesn't matter. Only conference champions are considered. We are only talking about the hypothetical scenario that App runs the table AND several favorites get upset in their respective conference championship games.
They'd figure a way to change the rules before letting app in honestly
RE: Acess Bowl race - CatMom - 11-03-2015 08:09 PM
First playoff poll came out today. Bama at #4? Seriously, this is what G5s are fighting. Even P5 teams with better records are already snubbed because they're not SEC. Committee points to SOS. Who sets the team strengths? Some committee. Teams can only play the games on their schedule and have no control over who some guys in a dark room deem better teams than others. So a 1 loss AL, who also had a scare from an FCS, gets chosen over the 2 B12 teams because of it.
I knew a 4 team playoff would be a joke before they even started it.
(also 6-2 A&M #19, 8-0 UH #25)
RE: Acess Bowl race - asucrutch23 - 11-03-2015 08:18 PM
(11-03-2015 08:09 PM)CatMom Wrote: So a 1 loss AL, who also had a scare from an FCS, gets chosen over the 2 B12 teams because of it.
Alabama has not played an FCS team. If they beat LSU this weekend, they definitely deserve the top 4.
RE: Acess Bowl race - Georgia_Power_Company - 11-03-2015 08:21 PM
(11-03-2015 08:09 PM)CatMom Wrote: First playoff poll came out today. Bama at #4? Seriously, this is what G5s are fighting. Even P5 teams with better records are already snubbed because they're not SEC. Committee points to SOS. Who sets the team strengths? Some committee. Teams can only play the games on their schedule and have no control over who some guys in a dark room deem better teams than others. So a 1 loss AL, who also had a scare from an FCS, gets chosen over the 2 B12 teams because of it.
I knew a 4 team playoff would be a joke before they even started it.
(also 6-2 A&M #19, 8-0 UH #25)
Catmom I think you confusing Alabama with Auburn. The Tide haven't played and FCS yet this year. Your correct though they are ranked too high frankly Memphis has just as good a resume as Alabama at this point.
I haven't watched A&M this year but from looking at their records I would probably flip those two rankings.
RE: Acess Bowl race - Usajags - 11-03-2015 08:23 PM
If Memphis wins out, and Ole Miss wins out(winning the SEC) and Memphis is left out of the CFP. Then we never have a chance and need to face that fact by breaking into a middle division inside of DI.
It's the ugly truth, and we all need to believe it.
RE: Acess Bowl race - CatMom - 11-03-2015 09:07 PM
Sorry got AL and Auburn confused (I'm dealing with trying to think on a 750 mg painkiller) but, it would be the same if it was Auburn because it was decided years ago nobody 12-0 outside of the SEC is better than a 1 loss SEC team unless they are forced into it; like they are having to do with The O due to being defending champions.
RE: Acess Bowl race - AlwaysSunny - 11-03-2015 10:54 PM
Either way it goes whoever gets that bid will be from the AAC, Toledo, or a Boise Long shot. If Boise wins out they get in over App State too. You can pretty much drop the USF scenario, it's not gonna happen. Therefore, the AAC championship comes down to Temple and Memphis/Houston. Temple has a win over Penn State and a close loss to top 10 ranked Notre Dame. Memphis has a win over a ranked Ole Miss. Houston has wins over ACC Louisville and SEC Vanderbilt. It aint...gonna..happen. App doesn't even get in over Marshall if they win out and everything else by some stroke of luck happens.
They have a win over Big 10 Purdue and if they win out, they'll have a win over a Western Kentucky team...who has a win over Vanderbilt as well. Hell even if Western Kentucky wins out, their only losses will come from Indiana and LSU. There is almost no way the Access bowl team comes from the Sunbelt this year. Ark State is the only team remaining on App's schedule that even has a winning record. You'd have to win all of your remaining games by 50 points.
RE: Acess Bowl race - SoCalBobcat78 - 11-03-2015 11:16 PM
The winner of the American Athletic Conference Championship game will be the likely bowl access team. The long shot theory that USF could actually get to the American Championship game is ridiculous. At 4-4, they would be happy just making a bowl game, which they have not done since 2010.
An 11-1 App State team will not get into an access bowl this year. The overall quality of Sun Belt football is not good enough for that to happen.
RE: Acess Bowl race - chiefsfan - 11-03-2015 11:35 PM
Toledo loses to NIU today, so it's pretty much certain the AAC Champ will get the access bid unless there is a historic collapse
RE: Acess Bowl race - SoCalBobcat78 - 11-03-2015 11:44 PM
(11-03-2015 08:23 PM)Usajags Wrote: If Memphis wins out, and Ole Miss wins out(winning the SEC) and Memphis is left out of the CFP. Then we never have a chance and need to face that fact by breaking into a middle division inside of DI.
It's the ugly truth, and we all need to believe it.
I would like to see Memphis go 13-0 and Ole Miss win out and take the SEC, which would include beating LSU. I want to see the CFP committee say no to Memphis. Or chose Alabama or LSU over Ole Miss. The more difficult and controversial this becomes, the more likely they expand the playoff to eight.
This is never going to work at four.
RE: Acess Bowl race - chiefsfan - 11-03-2015 11:47 PM
(11-03-2015 11:44 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:(11-03-2015 08:23 PM)Usajags Wrote: If Memphis wins out, and Ole Miss wins out(winning the SEC) and Memphis is left out of the CFP. Then we never have a chance and need to face that fact by breaking into a middle division inside of DI.
It's the ugly truth, and we all need to believe it.
I would like to see Houston go 13-0 and Ole Miss win out and take the SEC, which would include beating LSU. I want to see the CFP committee say no to Houston . Or chose Alabama or LSU over Ole Miss. The more difficult and controversial this becomes, the more likely they expand the playoff to eight.
This is never going to work at four.
Fixed with what I would prefer.
RE: Acess Bowl race - asucrutch23 - 11-04-2015 12:00 AM
(11-03-2015 11:16 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: The long shot theory that USF could actually get to the American Championship game is ridiculous. At 4-4, they would be happy just making a bowl game, which they have not done since 2010.
These are the only results that would have to occur for USF to go to the AACCG:
1. USF wins last 4 games (at reeling ECU, 2 at home, and one on the road against winless UCF)
2. Temple loses one other game (most likely Memphis)
I never claimed it was even remotely likely for App to get the spot. Just that there ARE scenarios where it can happen.
If it's an unranked USF, La Tech, Western Michigan, and San Diego State vs. a ranked App and we DON'T get the spot, I'll gladly eat crow.
We're just thrilled to even be in the discussion at this point. Northern Illinois winning tonight certainly didn't hurt.
RE: Acess Bowl race - TrueBlueAlum - 11-04-2015 09:51 AM
It's just going to be difficult for any Sun Belt team THIS year to get into the Access bowl unless they go undefeated (currently impossible) or 11-1 with a win over a decent P5 team. Because 11-1 with your highest win over a team ranked #65 isn't going to cut it unless magic happens and everyone else manages to lose 3 games at the end of the season.
Best victories on the season according to FPI:
GS > #63 Western Michigan
App > #65 Ga Southern
USA > #71 San Diego State
Ga State > #96 Ball State
Only other games left that can help that perception?
Idaho @ #35 Auburn
GS @ #21 UGA
ULM @ #112 Hawaii (a loss here hurts us more than a win helps us, imo)
RE: Acess Bowl race - _x_ - 11-04-2015 12:15 PM
(11-03-2015 09:07 PM)CatMom Wrote: Sorry got AL and Auburn confused (I'm dealing with trying to think on a 750 mg painkiller) but, it would be the same if it was Auburn because it was decided years ago nobody 12-0 outside of the SEC is better than a 1 loss SEC team unless they are forced into it; like they are having to do with The O due to being defending champions.
There's not only SEC bias, but there's even bias within the SEC. Alabama being #4 is Alabama-specific bias. It's hard to figure Alabama at #4 and Florida at #10 when Alabama's loss is at home to #18 Ole Miss and when Florida's loss is on the road at #2 LSU.
You could make a case for so many teams over Alabama at this point:
Notre Dame - one loss at #1 Clemson
Baylor - undefeated
Michigan State - undefeated
TCU - undefeated
Iowa - undefeated
Florida - see above
Memphis - undefeated and beat the team Alabama lost to
Oklahoma State - undefeated
Alabama at #4 is a joke. Of course this is all meaningless cause by next Tuesday everything will be different. This whole system is a joke. I'd rather just go with the AP poll or bring back the BCS formula to pick the top 4.