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Regular Season CAA Championship? - 70shawk - 02-09-2015 07:04 AM
It's somewhat unbelievable, given where we were this time last year, but the Hawks are still in contention for the regular season championship (and an automatic NIT bid) with 6 CAA games to go.
Biggest problem is that W&M needs to lose two games, and the Hawks will need to run the table for that to happen.
Given that W&M has two road games against two teams that have as legitimate a shot of beating them as anybody, their losing the two games is possible.
Anyone care to wager on the other side of that equation...the Seahawks going 6-0 down the stretch?
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - Seahawk Nation 08 - 02-09-2015 08:20 AM
With the way the CAA has been this year, 6-0 just doesn't seem probable at all. We're very capable of it but it has proven very difficult for any of the top teams to avoid upsets. Delaware from a talent standpoint scares me because this was a young, talented team that hung tough with us in Trask and has gotten better. Their win @ Northeastern served notice that they may have turned the corner and will be a threat in Baltimore.
In the same vein, Towson is dangerous as well, both in our road game on Feb 21 AND in Baltimore. John Davis is by far the best big man in the league in a year where there are no dominant big men in the CAA. He was a load for us to deal with last time around and could single-handedly take over a game or 2 down the stretch.
We shouldn't fear any teams in the league but we can't overlook them either.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - Osprey#1 - 02-09-2015 08:25 AM
The way I see it is that all six remaining games will be dogfights! We could win any of them and could lose any of them. 6-0 is possible, but very unlikely. Still, it has already been season of exceeded expectations, so why not?
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - bricksnivy - 02-09-2015 08:34 AM
(02-09-2015 08:25 AM)Osprey#1 Wrote: Still, it has already been season of exceeded expectations, so why not?
I've avoided the W&M thread for this very reason. I can't believe we're where we are at this point in the season. We're on the verge...
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - Seahawk Nation 08 - 02-09-2015 08:36 AM
I do like our chances to win all of our remaining home games, as we match up well with all of the teams coming here. That's all you can really ask for. Protect your home court, steal a win or 2 on the road heading into the tournament. A 12-6 or better CAA record in Coach Keatts' first season would be a smashing success.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - Ms. Cottonball - 02-09-2015 03:43 PM
(02-09-2015 07:04 AM)70shawk Wrote: Anyone care to wager on the other side of that equation...the Seahawks going 6-0 down the stretch?
As much as I would like to see us run the table and go 6-0 to finish, I just don't see it happening.
It's never been more true than with this team that defense wins games. What hasn't changed is the fact that we are not a very good offensive team. I know, I know.......Freddie, Ponder, Spruill have each had break out games but as the season wears on, we are starting to see adjustments to our shooters by the opposing team. There's enough tape on Big Ced that everyone can see that he isn't much of a threat in the post. Zone, box and 1, 1-3-1 matchup zone is what I suspect we'll see from here on out.
I love the intense pressure that has become our signature. Without a doubt it has won games and kept several very close. All those years of traveling to Richmond and playing VCU with there home crowd and tenacious D makes me wish we could have a shot at them in the next couple of years.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - B_Hawk06 - 02-09-2015 04:40 PM
(02-09-2015 03:43 PM)Ms. Cottonball Wrote:(02-09-2015 07:04 AM)70shawk Wrote: Anyone care to wager on the other side of that equation...the Seahawks going 6-0 down the stretch?
As much as I would like to see us run the table and go 6-0 to finish, I just don't see it happening.
It's never been more true than with this team that defense wins games. What hasn't changed is the fact that we are not a very good offensive team. I know, I know.......Freddie, Ponder, Spruill have each had break out games but as the season wears on, we are starting to see adjustments to our shooters by the opposing team. There's enough tape on Big Ced that everyone can see that he isn't much of a threat in the post. Zone, box and 1, 1-3-1 matchup zone is what I suspect we'll see from here on out.
I love the intense pressure that has become our signature. Without a doubt it has won games and kept several very close. All those years of traveling to Richmond and playing VCU with there home crowd and tenacious D makes me wish we could have a shot at them in the next couple of years.
If we continue to show success in the next couple of years, there will be teams like VCU lining up to play us, IMO. They'll want to prove they can beat a tough mid-major, and we'll want to prove that we can take down top talent.
Another thing I'd like to see in the future is us get back into early season tournaments.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - 82hawk - 02-09-2015 06:24 PM
We tend to forget that two of our wins have been in overtime, we've only blown out teams in two games, and the rest...wins and losses...have all been close. For the most part, lack offense has been the factor in all of this.
Zone defense is our problem, and we don't seem to have a solution. We passed and scored well against the zone JMU put on, but haven't any other time. Until we solve that problem, we can win or lose any game. The W&M game was hard to swallow, because not only did we miss from outside, we couldn't even hit layups or offensive put back from two feet away.
I think we slow down too often on a defensive rebound, instead of getting out on the break, and allow the zone defense to get set. We did that time and time again against W&M. A sure way to beat a zone, is to get to the basket before it is in place.
Our defense and pressure is so good, that shooting even 40% from the field will likely result in a W.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - B_Hawk06 - 02-09-2015 06:45 PM
Those are great points 82.
I would add that the number of 3's we took against WM didn't help either. WM can run the floor quickly, and when you're taking so many 3's early, it allowed them to get out on the break thanks to long rebounds, and run before we could get our defense set. Against a team that shoots such high percentages like WM, that's not going to help.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - B_Hawk06 - 02-09-2015 08:24 PM
Just saw over on the WM boards that Daniel Dixon has a torn hamstring. No word yet on the severity.
I'd hate to gain a competitive advantage due to an injury but that's likely going to shift around their lineup to some degree for sure. Dixon is a big player for them.
I would think Shaver would have to announce soon how severe it is.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - Proff - 02-10-2015 12:09 AM
If we go 6-0 bill & the virgin must go no better than 4-2 for us to finish first. Quite frankly a tall order but we got this far - so why not?
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - solohawks - 02-10-2015 12:48 AM
W&M has two tough road games left @NE and @Hofstra plus they have to host a Delaware team that just knocked off Northeastern. We have a chance, its slim, but its there.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - solohawks - 02-10-2015 12:56 AM
How would you guys rank our last 6 games in terms of strength of opponent
Here is my opinion
1. v Northeastern - This game will likely determine who gets the two seed should W&M take care of their business
2. @Delaware - This team just knocked off a Northeastern team on the road and is a tough trap road game
3. v. CoC - Rivalry game against team that knocked off the Tribe
4. @Towson - Another possible trap game
5. @Elon - On paper the least difficult of our 3 remaining road games
6. v. JMU - On paper this one is the least difficult remaining for us as we had a good showing against them on the road
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - 82hawk - 02-10-2015 08:05 AM
We have only shot over 50% in 4 CAA games this year. We have shot 40% and under 5 times, and twice under 30%.
In our 4 losses we shot .362, .549, .429 and .288.
We somehow beat CoC shooting .258.
As the season has worn on, our shooting percentage has gotten worse.
First 6 games: .475 (.362, .544, .400, .524, .549, .474)
Last 6 games: .383 (.258, .393, .508, .429, .424, .288)
We've only broken 45% once in our last 6 games, but 4 times in our first 6 games.
Unless we figure out how to shoot at a higher percentage, i'm not confident in how we finish. Not surprisingly, teams are figuring out how to defend us as the season goes on, and it shows
in a dramatic fashion.
IMO, we will likely go 3-3 to finish, and end up 11-7.
Wins - JMU, Elon, Del
Losses - CoC, NU and Towson.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - Seahawk Nation 08 - 02-10-2015 08:12 AM
Kind of a pessimistic outlook, 82. I have a good deal of faith that Keatts will be able to make the necessary adjustments on the offensive end. We may not have the horses W&M has but we have a veteran backcourt that has wanted to win for a long time. Jackson particularly has played with a sense of urgency and been a consistent force for us, getting to the tin as much as possible. I think the team will follow his lead.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - 82hawk - 02-10-2015 08:30 AM
I'm looking at trends, and we are trending in the wrong direction. Look, 11-7 would far exceed expectations for the year, and i'd be thrilled. I think our lower FG% is directly related to the opponents realization that we are not good against the zone, and our big men are almost non-existent on offense. We rely on the press and getting guards to the basket on the drive. The press seems to be working, but it's hard to drive on a zone and when we do, our shots are blocked or highly contested. And, we just don't have the shooters to bring teams out of the zone.
Maybe we figure something out to change our FG%, but i'm not sure what that would be. I think i'm being realistic based on facts, not pessimistic. I hope i'm wrong, and we go at least 4-2, and hopefully 6-0.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - solohawks - 02-10-2015 08:56 AM
(12-31-1969 07:02 PM)82hawk Wrote: And, we just don't have the shooters to bring teams out of the zone.
This is why we lost the tribe. Their zone paralyzed us from scoring despite us being better tehem in every other aspect. If we can figure out how to break a zone we will be ok. If not it will be rough
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - Seahawk Nation 08 - 02-10-2015 09:06 AM
I choose to think like this. We shot 29 % and still only lost to a superior team by 3. Our FG % has been trending down but I doubt we shoot THAT badly again this season.
W&M is the only team we should really "fear" in Baltimore, in my opinion.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - 82hawk - 02-10-2015 09:29 AM
I disagree. CoC is here Wednesday, and I am concerned about an upset. They are perfectly capable of shutting us down on offense and IMO played the best defense we faced all year. And they also have back their Sr. point guard, so the TO's should be far less. I wouldn't be surprised if they kept us under 40% from the field and under 30% from 3.
We have proven we are capable of winning, even shooting under 30%. But, if we keep playing with fire in doing so, those OT wins and close wins can easily become losses. We won very close games in the first half of conference games, where we were shooting about 10% better from the field. Unless we can regain that percentage, those early close wins will be losses this time around.
RE: Regular Season CAA Championship? - Seahawk Nation 08 - 02-10-2015 09:32 AM
Oh come on now, don't be concerned about it! Our program has its swagger back. Let's EXPECT to win.
I just can't wait to see our student section react to Canyon Barry tossing up his first free throw. lol. He'll make it, but it'll still be great.