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A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - EigenEagle - 11-10-2014 09:55 AM
This thread is for discussing the chances of having enough teams eliminated from bowl consideration for the door to be open to us who are stuck in the NCAA's transition limbo. Leave discussion of waivers and petitions and what not to the other threads please.
Here is my breakdown. Let me know if I've left any team off...
Teams that can’t reach 6 wins even if they win out: (24)
Not going to list these teams.
Teams who aren’t eliminated yet, but their chances look bleak: (12)
Tulane
South Florida
Virginia
Kansas
Texas Tech
Indiana
Northwestern
Army
New Mexico
Wyoming (I’m counting on Boise State to beat these guys)
Oregon State
ULM (not as bleak as some on this list, need to beat both UL and GS to get in)
Teams with at least a somewhat realistic chance of elimination: (23)
Temple (need to lose to Penn State, Cincinnati, and Tulane to be eliminated, thanks a lot East Carolina
Virginia Tech (two losses away, Duke, Wake, Virginia left)
Pittsburgh (two losses away, UNC, Syracuse, Miami left)
North Carolina (two losses from elimination, Pitt, Duke NC State left)
North Carolina State ( two losses away, Wake Forest, UNC left)
Oklahoma State (three losses away, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma left)
Michigan (two losses away, Maryland, Ohio State left)
Rutgers (three losses away, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland left)
Illinois (two losses away, Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern left)
North Texas (one loss away, UTEP, FIU, UTSA left)
UTEP: (three losses away, games with North Texas, Rice, and MTSU)
Western Kentucky: (two losses away, Army, UTSA, and Marshall left)
UAB: (two losses away, Marshall, Southern Miss left to play)
Ohio: (two losses away, Northern Illinois, Miami Ohio left to play)
Akron: (two losses away, Buffalo, UMass, Kent State left)
San Jose State: (one loss away, Hawaii, Utah State, San Diego State left)
Fresno State: (one loss away, Nevada, Hawaii left)
San Diego State: (three losses away, Boise State, Air Force, and San Jose State left)
Cal: (three losses away, USC, Stanford, BYU left to play)
Arkansas: (two losses away, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri left to play)
Kentucky: (two losses away, Tennessee, Louisville left to play)
South Carolina: (two losses away, Florida, South Alabama, Clemson left to play)
South Alabama: (three losses away, Texas State, South Carolina, Navy left)
So by my count, there are 36 bowl-ineligible teams if we assume the 12 teams in the second category won't make it. That means we need 14 of the 23 teams in the last category to be eliminated.
It's not a bleak as some think it is, but we will need more than half of the coin flips to go our way to have a shot.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - AstroCajun - 11-10-2014 09:58 AM
Another thread on this? Couldn't you have posted this in one of the other threads on the same topic?
For the record, I'm pulling hard for you to get it. If there's one fan base that knows the heartache about missing a bowl it's ours. Wouldn't wish that feeling on anyone once let alone 4 times.
Except Monroe. Suck it, Hoax.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - EigenEagle - 11-10-2014 10:06 AM
(11-10-2014 09:58 AM)AstroCajun Wrote: Another thread on this? Couldn't you have posted this in one of the other threads on the same topic?
Didn't notice GaSoEagle's thread, sorry.
The other threads have too much noise from bombs being dropped and missiles being fired.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - asucrutch23 - 11-10-2014 10:12 AM
Just a few things I would add:
1. The loser of the Texas-Oklahoma State game this weekend is going to have a tough time getting to 6 wins due to difficult remaining schedule.
2. Same deal with the loser of Cal-Stanford (not until 2 Saturdays from now) assuming they both lose this weekend which is somewhat likely.
3. Add Navy to the list of teams with a somewhat realistic chance of elimination. You guys can obviously help yourselves by beating them this weekend.
I also compiled a list of teams to root for this weekend:
Wake Forest (at NC State)
Indiana (at Rutgers)
Army (at Western Kentucky)
Georgia Southern (at Navy)
Buffalo (vs. Akron)
Boise State (vs. San Diego State)
Utah (at Stanford)
USC (vs. Cal)
Florida (vs. South Carolina)
Texas State (at South Alabama)
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - AstroCajun - 11-10-2014 10:14 AM
No worries.
My experience in the Belt is that you do all that you can do and dont give them a chance to deny you. Because they will seize on the littlest of things to make folks like us stay home.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - Saint3333 - 11-10-2014 10:15 AM
So you basically need 10 of those 23 teams to lose out. That doesn't seem very likely.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - asucrutch23 - 11-10-2014 10:20 AM
FWIW, Sagarin "Predictor" has 77 teams reaching bowl eligibility (Ga Southern would make 78 if eligible). That leaves you guys on the outside looking in but just needing a couple teams to falter.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - GSU Eagles - 11-10-2014 10:23 AM
Another new Ga Southern thread from the self-appointed Ga Southern fan monitor about who should post what, how and when?
Also, it should be changed to Ga Southern and App St's chances as they can still get to 6. Or does the Campbell game not count?
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - chiefsfan - 11-10-2014 10:24 AM
(11-10-2014 10:15 AM)Saint3333 Wrote: So you basically need 10 of those 23 teams to lose out. That doesn't seem very likely.
Looking at some of the schedules, its very possible.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - WKUFan518 - 11-10-2014 10:24 AM
Its not happening, sorry....As a WKU fan who has studied and paid close attention the last 3 seasons to teams becoming bowl eligible, teams you think have no chance will win 1 or 2 more games to sneak in, it happens every season....No different this season, at least 76 likely bowl eligible teams with maybe 78 being the number...
I don't feel bad for you, you will have plenty of other chances to becoming bowl eligible, but not this season...
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - chiefsfan - 11-10-2014 10:34 AM
(11-10-2014 10:24 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote: Its not happening, sorry....As a WKU fan who has studied and paid close attention the last 3 seasons to teams becoming bowl eligible, teams you think have no chance will win 1 or 2 more games to sneak in, it happens every season....No different this season, at least 76 likely bowl eligible teams with maybe 78 being the number...
I don't feel bad for you, you will have plenty of other chances to becoming bowl eligible, but not this season...
This is usually correct. You generally have one or two who qualifies unexpectedly at the last minute.
That being said, there is no guarantee it happens in a given year.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - EigenEagle - 11-10-2014 10:37 AM
(11-10-2014 10:24 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote: Its not happening, sorry....As a WKU fan who has studied and paid close attention the last 3 seasons to teams becoming bowl eligible, teams you think have no chance will win 1 or 2 more games to sneak in, it happens every season....No different this season, at least 76 likely bowl eligible teams with maybe 78 being the number...
I don't feel bad for you, you will have plenty of other chances to becoming bowl eligible, but not this season...
There is some room for error.
And of course, you will have some teams you think are going to barely make it who will choke as well.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - 8993 - 11-10-2014 10:38 AM
While Georgia Southern has done well this year, part of the deal of being a transition team is understanding that there is no post-season play for you. While App is not in the same situation as GaSo, we do understand that this is something that just is.
Am I saying that Georgia Southern is not deserving of a bowl? Far from it. Am I saying that Georgia Southern needs to let the idea of a bowl this year go? Yeah. It's one of the many factors of being a transition team, so just work with what you've got. App and GaSo have many years left to go to bowl games.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - eaglewraith - 11-10-2014 10:42 AM
(11-10-2014 10:38 AM)rknj8993 Wrote: While Georgia Southern has done well this year, part of the deal of being a transition team is understanding that there is no post-season play for you. While App is not in the same situation as GaSo, we do understand that this is something that just is.
Am I saying that Georgia Southern is not deserving of a bowl? Far from it. Am I saying that Georgia Southern needs to let the idea of a bowl this year go? Yeah. It's one of the many factors of being a transition team, so just work with what you've got. App and GaSo have many years left to go to bowl games.
There is a possibility of us making a bowl. The rules allow it under certain circumstances. I will not give up believing we can make one until all of those circumstances don't occur. A waiver will not happen, the rules don't even allow it anymore.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - asucrutch23 - 11-10-2014 10:46 AM
(11-10-2014 10:42 AM)eaglewraith Wrote:(11-10-2014 10:38 AM)rknj8993 Wrote: While Georgia Southern has done well this year, part of the deal of being a transition team is understanding that there is no post-season play for you. While App is not in the same situation as GaSo, we do understand that this is something that just is.
Am I saying that Georgia Southern is not deserving of a bowl? Far from it. Am I saying that Georgia Southern needs to let the idea of a bowl this year go? Yeah. It's one of the many factors of being a transition team, so just work with what you've got. App and GaSo have many years left to go to bowl games.
There is a possibility of us making a bowl. The rules allow it under certain circumstances. I will not give up believing we can make one until all of those circumstances don't occur. A waiver will not happen, the rules don't even allow it anymore.
I agree with this. Heck, I haven't stopped keeping up with App State's chances. Until it can't happen, to me it is worth tracking.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - Saint3333 - 11-10-2014 11:08 AM
(11-10-2014 10:24 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:(11-10-2014 10:15 AM)Saint3333 Wrote: So you basically need 10 of those 23 teams to lose out. That doesn't seem very likely.
Looking at some of the schedules, its very possible.
Excellent choice of words. Possible yes, probable or likely, no.
Many of those teams will be underdogs in every game out, but many of those games are rivalry games down the stretch and college football in November is not predictable.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - bobcat09 - 11-10-2014 11:16 AM
(11-10-2014 10:46 AM)asucrutch23 Wrote:(11-10-2014 10:42 AM)eaglewraith Wrote:(11-10-2014 10:38 AM)rknj8993 Wrote: While Georgia Southern has done well this year, part of the deal of being a transition team is understanding that there is no post-season play for you. While App is not in the same situation as GaSo, we do understand that this is something that just is.
Am I saying that Georgia Southern is not deserving of a bowl? Far from it. Am I saying that Georgia Southern needs to let the idea of a bowl this year go? Yeah. It's one of the many factors of being a transition team, so just work with what you've got. App and GaSo have many years left to go to bowl games.
There is a possibility of us making a bowl. The rules allow it under certain circumstances. I will not give up believing we can make one until all of those circumstances don't occur. A waiver will not happen, the rules don't even allow it anymore.
I agree with this. Heck, I haven't stopped keeping up with App State's chances. Until it can't happen, to me it is worth tracking.
Regardless, App St. is done. a 6-6 team from the sunbelt will not get picked if all others are satisfied. Too many scenarios where that has happened and I dont expect this year to be any different
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - Georgia_Power_Company - 11-10-2014 12:35 PM
We can't control our own destiny for a Bowl Game but we can control our destiny for the Conference Championship so I think that is what we should be concentrating on.
Just saying...
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - asucrutch23 - 11-10-2014 01:10 PM
(11-10-2014 11:16 AM)bobcat09 Wrote:(11-10-2014 10:46 AM)asucrutch23 Wrote:(11-10-2014 10:42 AM)eaglewraith Wrote:(11-10-2014 10:38 AM)rknj8993 Wrote: While Georgia Southern has done well this year, part of the deal of being a transition team is understanding that there is no post-season play for you. While App is not in the same situation as GaSo, we do understand that this is something that just is.
Am I saying that Georgia Southern is not deserving of a bowl? Far from it. Am I saying that Georgia Southern needs to let the idea of a bowl this year go? Yeah. It's one of the many factors of being a transition team, so just work with what you've got. App and GaSo have many years left to go to bowl games.
There is a possibility of us making a bowl. The rules allow it under certain circumstances. I will not give up believing we can make one until all of those circumstances don't occur. A waiver will not happen, the rules don't even allow it anymore.
I agree with this. Heck, I haven't stopped keeping up with App State's chances. Until it can't happen, to me it is worth tracking.
Regardless, App St. is done. a 6-6 team from the sunbelt will not get picked if all others are satisfied. Too many scenarios where that has happened and I dont expect this year to be any different
The only scenario where we are allowed in is if there are not enough bowl eligible teams. So it is not about us getting picked above anyone. If there are 74 or fewer eligible teams and App State and Georgia Southern are 6-6 or better we will go bowling.
This scenario, as mentioned above, is very unlikely to happen. But, I'm going to follow it until it is impossible.
RE: A look at Georgia Southern's bowl chances - GaSoEagle - 11-10-2014 02:21 PM
Absolutely. It gives our fans a reason to hope this year. Some other fans take that as somehow being arrogant so be it. The fact is until there are 76 bowl eligible teams we have a chance.