Quote:Texas A&M class (fit before they were a sparkle in their mother's eye):

-Florida State
-Clemson

South Carolina class (cultural fit, but just enough ties to another region/conference that they will need some on the field success to make them feel that they really are home):

-Virginia Tech
-North Carolina State
-Oklahoma
-Oklahoma State
-West Virginia

Arkansas class (quasi-cultural fit: are just southern or land grant-y enough to not feel out of place but still not fully a cultural fit due to geography or love of non-pigskin sports):

-Kansas State
-Iowa State
-Georgia Tech
-Duke
-Wake Forest

Missouri class (Neither your traditional southern or land grant school, but fans would still be all-in after that first home football game and first home basketball games against Kentucky and Florida, all of which we know the SEC would ensure is a spectacle):

-Miami
-Pittsburgh
-Kansas

Stranger Danger (Have real issues with both cultural compatibility and/or extreme difficulty playing nice with others that they then hide behind bogus "academic concerns"):

-Texas
-Notre Dame
-North Carolina
-UVA

Would give one of their limbs (but are still not getting in): Baylor, TCU, Louisville, Texas Tech, USF, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane

Would give their firstborn...(but are still not getting in): ECU

(05-02-2014 03:08 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Just for fun, here is my take on the Big 10 schools, understanding that the whole Southern thing would take some getting used to for them and I am stretching "fit" just a bit:

Texas A&M class: Ohio State Agree!

South Carolina class: Michigan State, Purdue

Arkansas class: Maryland, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
Disagree about Minnesota, Wisconsin & Illinois as they do not fit at any level.

Missouri class: Nebraska (a hate for Texas goes a long way here)
Here I add Iowa, Indiana, and Maryland

Stranger Danger: Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue
Take out Purdue and place Michigan and Penn State in an upper tier of this classification, but for different reasons.

Most of the western schools of the Big 10 are in the Arkansas class because they are too darn nice to raise a fuss about anything.

(05-02-2014 11:00 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  The B12 will either stay at 10 or less likely go to 12 if the ACC comes apart and FSU is not available. If the B10 and SEC take all the most valuable schools the B12 will not help them get to 12 schools to dissolve the GoR.

The PAC and B12 would then either merge or dissolve themselves with schools going to the B1G or SEC if financially the new B12/PAC can't be on equal footing with the BIG or SEC. The PAC schools would almost certainly head to the B1G if invited so the B12 schools would be the ones being battled over. Texas, OU, and KU are the only ones the B1G covets though. After we have 2 conferences squaring off in a super bowl like game after their respective conference playoff.

(05-03-2014 09:45 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 11:00 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  The B12 will either stay at 10 or less likely go to 12 if the ACC comes apart and FSU is not available. If the B10 and SEC take all the most valuable schools the B12 will not help them get to 12 schools to dissolve the GoR.

The PAC and B12 would then either merge or dissolve themselves with schools going to the B1G or SEC if financially the new B12/PAC can't be on equal footing with the BIG or SEC. The PAC schools would almost certainly head to the B1G if invited so the B12 schools would be the ones being battled over. Texas, OU, and KU are the only ones the B1G covets though. After we have 2 conferences squaring off in a super bowl like game after their respective conference playoff.

I think that is precisely how it would break down and the competitiveness of a PAC - Big 12 merger would rest upon whether FOX or ESPN had a vested interest and made their payout one that would be in the ballpark with the Big 10 and SEC. I think if they have a stake then the PAC/Big 12 merger is stabilized financially. I don't think the networks would love for there to be just 2 leagues.

(05-06-2014 12:33 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(05-03-2014 09:45 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 11:00 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  The B12 will either stay at 10 or less likely go to 12 if the ACC comes apart and FSU is not available. If the B10 and SEC take all the most valuable schools the B12 will not help them get to 12 schools to dissolve the GoR.

The PAC and B12 would then either merge or dissolve themselves with schools going to the B1G or SEC if financially the new B12/PAC can't be on equal footing with the BIG or SEC. The PAC schools would almost certainly head to the B1G if invited so the B12 schools would be the ones being battled over. Texas, OU, and KU are the only ones the B1G covets though. After we have 2 conferences squaring off in a super bowl like game after their respective conference playoff.

I think that is precisely how it would break down and the competitiveness of a PAC - Big 12 merger would rest upon whether FOX or ESPN had a vested interest and made their payout one that would be in the ballpark with the Big 10 and SEC. I think if they have a stake then the PAC/Big 12 merger is stabilized financially. I don't think the networks would love for there to be just 2 leagues.

Bingo. For the networks too much consolidation is bad. More leverage to the schools with less places to get content and increasing costs for the same content. I think they would like to see 4, if that would be the stopping point, but no way they want 3 or 2 or, even worse, only one association. Which is exactly why the schools should consolidate into 1 or 2 mega conferences. So much more leverage and money in it for them.

NBC would work perfect for the PAC/B12 merged conference. They want in too. Then all 3 would be featured on a national network. But you are right someone would have to step up and pay and whoever does that would probably demand half of the PAC network as well since that seems the going rate on network partnerships more or less.

(05-06-2014 08:36 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well, NBC would be the flip side of the consolidation coin. One way to make college football as a product worth more is to add more bidders. The other way of course is further consolidation. Short term I would have to think that both ESPN and FOX would respond with more to lock potential contenders for that industry out as that would be to their benefit. ESPN might be more likely to simply shore up its product line since they essentially own two of the likely 4 surviving conferences. FOX on the other hand can't afford to lose anything to either ESPN or especially to a new competitor like NBC. The loss of Big 10 T1 rights really cuts their content down to leased content from other networks and from the PAC. If the Big 12 is in the crosshairs then they lose the only product to which they have prime games without taking what ESPN doles out to them. Other than that it's Big 10 network games.

(05-06-2014 08:59 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:36 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well, NBC would be the flip side of the consolidation coin. One way to make college football as a product worth more is to add more bidders. The other way of course is further consolidation. Short term I would have to think that both ESPN and FOX would respond with more to lock potential contenders for that industry out as that would be to their benefit. ESPN might be more likely to simply shore up its product line since they essentially own two of the likely 4 surviving conferences. FOX on the other hand can't afford to lose anything to either ESPN or especially to a new competitor like NBC. The loss of Big 10 T1 rights really cuts their content down to leased content from other networks and from the PAC. If the Big 12 is in the crosshairs then they lose the only product to which they have prime games without taking what ESPN doles out to them. Other than that it's Big 10 network games.

http://www.goodbullhunting.com/2013/12/17/5216550/college-football-tv-ratings-2013-regular-season-final-sec

With Comcast ownership of NBCUniversal, I don't think they are a serious in the sports broadcast business. They have made tepid bids on all of the high profile renegotiation to date. Maybe they are saving their money for the B1G contract but such a move just doesn't seem to fit within Comcast's MO.

(05-06-2014 08:52 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  There are rumors the OU AD has called for a B12 expansion meeting. Makes sense after his thoughts about having no CCG and how it could affect OU in the playoff came out.

(05-06-2014 01:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:59 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:36 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well, NBC would be the flip side of the consolidation coin. One way to make college football as a product worth more is to add more bidders. The other way of course is further consolidation. Short term I would have to think that both ESPN and FOX would respond with more to lock potential contenders for that industry out as that would be to their benefit. ESPN might be more likely to simply shore up its product line since they essentially own two of the likely 4 surviving conferences. FOX on the other hand can't afford to lose anything to either ESPN or especially to a new competitor like NBC. The loss of Big 10 T1 rights really cuts their content down to leased content from other networks and from the PAC. If the Big 12 is in the crosshairs then they lose the only product to which they have prime games without taking what ESPN doles out to them. Other than that it's Big 10 network games.

http://www.goodbullhunting.com/2013/12/17/5216550/college-football-tv-ratings-2013-regular-season-final-sec

With Comcast ownership of NBCUniversal, I don't think they are a serious in the sports broadcast business. They have made tepid bids on all of the high profile renegotiation to date. Maybe they are saving their money for the B1G contract but such a move just doesn't seem to fit within Comcast's MO.

Vandiver I think you are going to be right about this. I would think they would be much more likely to want to to lease games from ESPN than to bid against them. Or, I could see them going in for a CBS/SEC type deal with the Big 10 or PAC where they essentially purchase the rights to 1 game a week in prime time. To me that would make a lot more sense than an all out move.

What I am sure of is that at some point Texas and Oklahoma are going to want to be in on something bigger with a greater future upside than the Big 12. That conference is hamstrung in every way a conference can be. They have 10 teams which means less product. They have 40% of those teams from the State of Texas when UT brings that with them anywhere they go on their own. Small states of Kansas and Oklahoma have redundant teams and West Virginia is a logistical nightmare for them. Worse still they have no good expansion candidates and little with which to lure away good schools from other P5 conferences. Whether in the next two years or at the end of the GOR that conference is toast. The pressure from the increase in revenue for the Big 10 and SEC will only add fuel to the fire. In addition by one monitoring service at least 12 SEC schools outdrew Texas in average viewers per televised game last year and by that services rating Texas was in 26th place in total average viewers in part due to the LHN and more specifically due to the FOXS1 ratings. By Contrast Alabama was #1 in the nation in average viewers per game attracting over 6 million per event and Texas A&M was #2 and Auburn was #5 with over 5 million per event. Only Vanderbilt and Kentucky finished with fewer viewers than the Horns. The SEC had 6 in the top 10 and 12 in the top 25. As a conference the SEC outdrew the Big 10 by 900,000 viewers per event.

Now you can cut numbers to suit yourself but by any metric the Big 12 is lagging past performance and the trends are down. BTW the Big 12 lagged all of the other P5 conferences in viewership and that is why their future prospects are bleak. Rational minds will have to stop and look at the statistics and realize that other options have to be considered. That is why I'm certain of future movement. And, that movement will not be affected by the delivery vehicle. Whether a la carte or bundled 3 million viewers is still three million viewers. Texas officials won't sit idly by while more money is to made elsewhere and while other competition would deliver numbers almost double what they have now. And Oklahoma can't afford to wait either. The ACC was 3rd in viewership and they are gradually looking stronger while their other metrics are trending up. The PAC is just plain stagnant but still ahead of the Big 12. All of this simply dictates that change is coming. I think sooner rather than later, but we'll see.

Check out the link I posted in the upper part of this box in my first quote or again here.

http://www.goodbullhunting.com/2013/12/17/5216550/college-football-tv-ratings-2013-regular-season-final-sec

(05-06-2014 09:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 01:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:59 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:36 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well, NBC would be the flip side of the consolidation coin. One way to make college football as a product worth more is to add more bidders. The other way of course is further consolidation. Short term I would have to think that both ESPN and FOX would respond with more to lock potential contenders for that industry out as that would be to their benefit. ESPN might be more likely to simply shore up its product line since they essentially own two of the likely 4 surviving conferences. FOX on the other hand can't afford to lose anything to either ESPN or especially to a new competitor like NBC. The loss of Big 10 T1 rights really cuts their content down to leased content from other networks and from the PAC. If the Big 12 is in the crosshairs then they lose the only product to which they have prime games without taking what ESPN doles out to them. Other than that it's Big 10 network games.

http://www.goodbullhunting.com/2013/12/17/5216550/college-football-tv-ratings-2013-regular-season-final-sec

With Comcast ownership of NBCUniversal, I don't think they are a serious in the sports broadcast business. They have made tepid bids on all of the high profile renegotiation to date. Maybe they are saving their money for the B1G contract but such a move just doesn't seem to fit within Comcast's MO.

Vandiver I think you are going to be right about this. I would think they would be much more likely to want to to lease games from ESPN than to bid against them. Or, I could see them going in for a CBS/SEC type deal with the Big 10 or PAC where they essentially purchase the rights to 1 game a week in prime time. To me that would make a lot more sense than an all out move.

What I am sure of is that at some point Texas and Oklahoma are going to want to be in on something bigger with a greater future upside than the Big 12. That conference is hamstrung in every way a conference can be. They have 10 teams which means less product. They have 40% of those teams from the State of Texas when UT brings that with them anywhere they go on their own. Small states of Kansas and Oklahoma have redundant teams and West Virginia is a logistical nightmare for them. Worse still they have no good expansion candidates and little with which to lure away good schools from other P5 conferences. Whether in the next two years or at the end of the GOR that conference is toast. The pressure from the increase in revenue for the Big 10 and SEC will only add fuel to the fire. In addition by one monitoring service at least 12 SEC schools outdrew Texas in average viewers per televised game last year and by that services rating Texas was in 26th place in total average viewers in part due to the LHN and more specifically due to the FOXS1 ratings. By Contrast Alabama was #1 in the nation in average viewers per game attracting over 6 million per event and Texas A&M was #2 and Auburn was #5 with over 5 million per event. Only Vanderbilt and Kentucky finished with fewer viewers than the Horns. The SEC had 6 in the top 10 and 12 in the top 25. As a conference the SEC outdrew the Big 10 by 900,000 viewers per event.

Now you can cut numbers to suit yourself but by any metric the Big 12 is lagging past performance and the trends are down. BTW the Big 12 lagged all of the other P5 conferences in viewership and that is why their future prospects are bleak. Rational minds will have to stop and look at the statistics and realize that other options have to be considered. That is why I'm certain of future movement. And, that movement will not be affected by the delivery vehicle. Whether a la carte or bundled 3 million viewers is still three million viewers. Texas officials won't sit idly by while more money is to made elsewhere and while other competition would deliver numbers almost double what they have now. And Oklahoma can't afford to wait either. The ACC was 3rd in viewership and they are gradually looking stronger while their other metrics are trending up. The PAC is just plain stagnant but still ahead of the Big 12. All of this simply dictates that change is coming. I think sooner rather than later, but we'll see.

Check out the link I posted in the upper part of this box in my first quote or again here.

http://www.goodbullhunting.com/2013/12/17/5216550/college-football-tv-ratings-2013-regular-season-final-sec

If I were running ESPN, I would want to raise the profile of my "other" conference.
NBC would want to tie in any other college football broadcast in with it's Notre Dame investment wouldn't you think. With NBC's Notre Dame contract, they would only have to buy 5-7 games per year. And if NBC paid them too, it would help reduce the expense to ESPN.
Interesting times.

(05-06-2014 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:52 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  There are rumors the OU AD has called for a B12 expansion meeting. Makes sense after his thoughts about having no CCG and how it could affect OU in the playoff came out.

Do you think he is serious about expansion or just laying the groundwork for what may be the reasoning behind a move at some point in the future? And by the way it is not a rumor that he has called for a meeting of the expansion committee that much has been confirmed.

(05-06-2014 10:29 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:52 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  There are rumors the OU AD has called for a B12 expansion meeting. Makes sense after his thoughts about having no CCG and how it could affect OU in the playoff came out.

Do you think he is serious about expansion or just laying the groundwork for what may be the reasoning behind a move at some point in the future? And by the way it is not a rumor that he has called for a meeting of the expansion committee that much has been confirmed.

The conference meetings are set for later this month (May 28 and 29th I think). I would think getting the votes for expansion to 12 would not be possible with the candidates available most likely. But it would give OU ammo later to say they wanted expansion if they left for a larger conference later. I do think OU is the least pleased, with the current conference and will be the first to leave if the B12 fails.

(05-06-2014 11:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I always figured it would be you guys if the Big 10 called. But face it, the property war for the last 9 schools is about to happen. I look for ESPN to try to lock down Texas, Kansas, and pull Oklahoma away from FOX. Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Baylor will then be looking for ins.

First the autonomy within or without the NCAA will be decided.
Second they'll figure out how many privates want out.
Third the networks and conferences by proxy will try to sew up the last 9 pieces of the puzzle.

I think Delany will fake east and make a play for two of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas and that will force ESPN into trying to place them in either the SEC or ACC.

When all of this first got started with the departure of Colorado and Nebraska I then thought that Texas and Kansas would go Big 10, Oklahoma and West Virginia would go SEC, that Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would find their way into the PAC (especially if the PAC failed to sell interest in their network) and that Connecticut would go ACC. That could still happen but now I think if that scenario unfolded that the SEC might look at Oklahoma and Baylor and that West Virginia might go ACC.

(05-07-2014 11:57 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 11:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I always figured it would be you guys if the Big 10 called. But face it, the property war for the last 9 schools is about to happen. I look for ESPN to try to lock down Texas, Kansas, and pull Oklahoma away from FOX. Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Baylor will then be looking for ins.

First the autonomy within or without the NCAA will be decided.
Second they'll figure out how many privates want out.
Third the networks and conferences by proxy will try to sew up the last 9 pieces of the puzzle.

I think Delany will fake east and make a play for two of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas and that will force ESPN into trying to place them in either the SEC or ACC.

When all of this first got started with the departure of Colorado and Nebraska I then thought that Texas and Kansas would go Big 10, Oklahoma and West Virginia would go SEC, that Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would find their way into the PAC (especially if the PAC failed to sell interest in their network) and that Connecticut would go ACC. That could still happen but now I think if that scenario unfolded that the SEC might look at Oklahoma and Baylor and that West Virginia might go ACC.

First, I like how you state the SEC being quiet is somehow a portend of things to come. I automatically hear The Omen soundtrack playing in my head.

But to your second point, how many private schools do you actually think want out? Everyone presumes Wake and Vandy and schools of their ilk, but I have a feeling that with institutions like Tulane making major investments in an on campus stadium, that you would see little to no movements from the privates.

Finally, by virtue of the conference contracts that are locked up, NBC and CBS are going to remain bit players on the CFB side of broadcasting. As such, ESPN needs FOX to be a major player/partner just so at the very least the WWL can stave off accusations of having a monopoly. So while Texas to ESPN is almost a given, I think FOX/B1G/PAC conglomerate needs to somehow land OU, KU and TT for this endgame to have any chance of working out and maintaining an above board perception.