RE: Optimistic about CUSA going forward...
I don't begrudge any school for switching conferences for 1) more revenue, 2) upgraded competition, or 3) association with like-minded and/or regional schools.
CUSA is far from the top of FBS (so says my friend Capt. Obvious) but we're also a long way from the top of the G5. Odds are, we'll lose someone at some point because 1) some conferences pay substantially more, 2) depending on the sport, some conferences offer far stronger competition, and 3) we're spread nearly from coast to coast to coast, with five teams -- Liberty/Delaware, NMSU/UTEP, and FIU -- on extreme fringes far from the rest of the conference. (Again, Capt. Obvious says hi.)
In the G5, only the AAC and MWC represent a massive upgrade in revenue. The SBC, CUSA, and MAC are all close enough that we can get in Internet arguments about which TV package is most attractive. (Even a $1M-$2M difference isn't a lot relative to other conferences.) I'm not speaking of what COULD happen in the next round of media negotiations -- only of where we stand NOW.
With that in mind, if the MWC comes after UTEP or NMSU, or the AAC comes after anyone else, it's a safe bet those teams are gone. Revenue is the biggest driver in realignment. But it should be noted that the AAC could successfully poach teams from the Sun Belt just as easily. But as with CUSA, working in the SBC's favor is that *most* of its schools don't have the intangibles historically sought after by the AAC -- notably, market size and an urban location.
Generally speaking, the MAC does not hold any major advantage in revenue or (overall) competitive strength. But it does have a strong advantage in regionality. WKU and Delaware are the only CUSA schools which fit neatly on the outskirts of that region. MTSU is close, but has far fewer rust belt alumni. But both WKU and MTSU are just as close (or closer) to schools in the heart of CUSA, so the MAC's regional advantage loses steam here. Delaware is the only one of the three who's on an island in CUSA, but the Blue Hens already chose visibility and national reach over regionality when they chose CUSA. It's probably safe to say none of these schools is leaving for the MAC anytime soon.
That brings us to the Sun Belt.
If ever there were a conference which mirrored CUSA, it's the SBC. Whereas we stretch from Delaware to Miami to New Mexico, their footprint is only a big smaller, stretching from north Virginia to southeast Georgia to south-central Texas. Both conferences emphasize football. CUSA has a stronger emphasis on basketball, but the SBC is working to close that gap. The SBC has a stronger emphasis on baseball, but CUSA is working to close that gap. With only a couple of exceptions, most SBC schools are located in smaller, college-focused towns. With only a few exceptions, most CUSA schools are located in smaller, college-focused towns.
Looking at the two conferences from a distance, we're practically twins.
The difference, ultimately, is the number of schools on isolated geographical islands. Whereas CUSA has the five teams mentioned earlier, the Sun Belt has two reasonably tight geographical divisions. Only Texas State (380 mi from LaFayette) is more than 300 miles away from its closest conference neighbor.
This perceived regional advantage is very dependent on each individual school, however. With its cluster of teams in Virginia plus Marshall and App State, the SBC would represent a geographical upgrade for Liberty and Delaware. Likewise, its cluster of teams in the ArkLaTex region would represent a geographical upgrade for La Tech and SHSU.
It's more of a break-even for JSU, KSU, MTSU, and WKU. Obviously, if multiple teams left together, it could shift the dynamic considerably, but on the face of it, none of these teams would gain much more from being *in* the SBC with their geographical neighbors vs scheduling nonconference games *against* their SBC neighbors.
As long as the Belt's membership is stable, and they don't choose to expand beyond their current 14 teams, they don't represent a threat to CUSA. And once CUSA pulls in its 12th member (assuming that's the goal) and achieves stability, we won't represent a threat to the Sun Belt. We're two complimentary conferences, and should offer each other a solid choice of opponents for our nonconference schedules, bolstering our schedule strength and giving our fans some popular games against regional and historical rivals. It's a win-win.
Obviously, the lack of openings above us -- and the scarcity of dominoes left to fall -- is reason for some optimism for the future of CUSA, but it's this potential synergistic relationship with a rival conference which gives me the most hope.
Sure, many of us hate the Belt, and many SBC fans are absolutely consumed by hate for us, but that's not a bad thing. The bottom line is, every time we face a Sun Belt team IN ANY SPORT, there's an added pressure to win. And they feel the same way. ("No one wants to lose to a team from lowly CUSA!") Ultimately, this pushes both conferences away from complacency, much the same way an active, heated rivalry tends to benefit both schools. The more we hate them, the more we feel pressured to beat them. The more they hate us, the more they feel pressured to beat us. The more pressure a school feels to win, the more resources they devote toward that end.
In the end, CUSA may or may not finish on top, but it promises to be fun to watch.
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