(02-03-2024 10:25 AM)kreed5120 Wrote: (02-03-2024 09:13 AM)BruceMcF Wrote: (02-02-2024 03:30 PM)kreed5120 Wrote: ... None of what you're saying explains why the MAC has fallen below schools in conferences like the Big South or Big Sky. ...
It could help explain it, since "everyone loses people to the portal" doesn't pin down how much is lost at different levels. I don't know what do the numbers say on that point. Whether there is a difference in the number of playing minutes going into the portal is something that could be worked out, but it's not something I have time to work out.
Quote:My honest opinion on why the MAC has slipped is because of a string of poor coaching hires combined with several programs appearing to have given up entirely on trying to fund a competitive basketball program.
There have always been MAC schools that have not prioritized basketball, but it might be that in the aftermath of the Covid hit on budgets, there are more who are accepting being in the cellar rather than trying to at least get the kind of mid-table finish where you have more home wins than home losses.
There may be some traces of that in the end of season NET numbers since Covid -- that's a lot less time consuming to look at, so I'll have a look at that today. Kent State has a strategic priority on basketball, but it may be that more than the previous number have gone all in on FB and have put basketball on the back burner.
Quote: ... Instead of going out and hiring a proven winner from a mid to low-major, you see some programs take a flier on an unknown or has been because it's cheaper. There is a reason why Akron, Toledo, and Kent are near the top of the standings most years. The coaches at those programs are proven winners. ...
Again, some of that might have been short term expediency in the budget messes most schools faced post-Covid rather than a change in strategy ... we will have to see whether the replacements at some schools when the busts among those hires are replaced can be pressured to go back to more competitive coaching hires.
I actually think you're starting to hit the nail on the head. Covid hurt conferences like the Sun Belt, C-USA, and MAC more than anyone. I say that because the other 7 conferences have the means to withstand the storm. FBS is expensive to operate so when the majority of the revenue for it suddenly disappears, it digs a deep hole.
To the extent that that is going on, NIL & the transfer portal would not be setting the floor on the slide, but it would definitely speed up the slide, since when a school loses a coach to a higher tier school and then makes a budget-friendly hire rather than a competitive one, there is far less inertia in the quality of the playing roster than there used to be.
Also, to the extent that is happening, focusing as I do on one of the four schools most serious about basketball wouldn't give a good overview on what is going on in the conference as a whole.
Looking at NET 21-24 (using end of year for 21-23 and most recent on Nolan for 24), the MAC breaks into three fairly neat for school groups:
Top (93-127): Toledo, Akron, Kent State, OhioU
Middle (188-234): Buffalo, Ball State, Bowling Green, MiamiU
Bottom (294-319): NIU, CMU, WMU, EMU
To get an idea of trends, we can hold those four as constant groups and look at their average NET per year, so Top / Middle / Bottom:
2021: 100/150/316
2022: 117/231/312
2023: 94/228/306
2024: 139/255/293
One thing this might help clear up is why after the MAC dropped divisions, when they agreed to a more NET-preserving scheduling system -- with the highest finishing schools playing their home-and-away games against the other higher finishing schools ...
... they then immediately tore it apart again with special exceptions.
The NET-preserving scheduling is really for the situation like 2021. With a situation like 2022-2024, there's not very much NET to preserve in skipping two games against the lowest NET schools.
If the MAC wanted to look for structural approaches to allow the schools that are at least trying to be competitive to be less anchored by the abysmal NET rankings of the bottom of the ladder, they'd have to split into Division 1 and Division 2, with a full double round robin inside each division and a single home or away schedule between Divisions, and then replace the four conference games dropped with a couple more inter-conference home and away "challenge" series, where the top Division schools would be playing against higher finishing schools in six OOC MAC Challenge series games.
A formal promotion/relegation system between the two divisions would also encourage investment by both the top tier and the middle tier schools ... for instance, if the Division 2 winner ends with a higher NET or advances to a higher conference tournament round than the last placed school in Division 1, they swap divisions.
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MAC MBB NET Rankings through 28 January
